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Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:58 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@phil155 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread - Page 3 9473eb10
wel lthat doesnt match up to the high wind warning at all and thats their product lol, how does that work. the orange areas in the HWW should be in purple as the warning says 65mph gusts. Weird. I see it is experimental, whatever its gonna be rough for most.

Edit ohhh I see its sustained OR gusts, wel lthey should have seperate maps for each.  I doubt anyone is seeing sustained 50mph.

Frank link to this? I cannot find it.


It seems like the worst of the winds should be towards the shore, nyc and long island. Not saying the rest of the area will not have a tough go of it as it seems like the entire area will have a tough time.
I really hope the power outages are not widespread and or long lasting

This is the million-dollar question. Several New England pro MET’s are arguing those near the shore will actually see more of an inversion due to the cooler Atlantic waters, whereas inland areas (and not by much btw, I’m talking starting ~10 miles inland or so) see the highest wind gusts mix down to the surface.

This is incredible timing lol I was literally JUST thinking about this after I noticed the 3km NAM picking up on this aha it’s the exact same concept as what we were discussing with the snow a couple days ago, Jman. But to be fair, I don’t know how cool the waters actually are in relation to the warm advection aloft and really don’t have time to sit and look, so maybe somebody else could follow up and provide more insight.

As a tangent to this, I also recently discovered the theta-e plots on Levi’s (tropical tidbits’) sounding images and I really want to play around with those in future wind events, as they can be an immeasurably valuable tool in assessing general stability/instability and convective tendencies.
So are you saying you do not expect this to pan out cuz I just let a lot of people know its going to be pretty bad. Or are you not sure? Do not totally recall to connection to the water with the snow discussion. Where on nam do you see weaker winds along coast? In the soundings? I wish I knew how to read those.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:13 pm

@jmanley32, the short answer is that I can’t honestly say. I think regardless, when it comes to the general consensus of the general public (non-weather nerds like us lol) it’s going to be windy. The difference between gusts 40-45 and 60-65 is irrelevant aha to us, though, it makes a big difference; it’s all relative.

As for the connection to snow, remember we were discussing how a snowpack would theoretically hold the temperatures near the surface down, which, with the warmer air above would help strengthen the inversion (create a stable layer that the winds from above couldn’t mix through)? Same concept with a cold ocean.

What we are seeing on NAM soundings is not necessarily weaker winds, but signals for a more pronounced inversion which would help to prevent the stronger winds from above making it down to the surface.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:25 pm

@rb924119 wrote:@jmanley32, the short answer is that I can’t honestly say. I think regardless, when it comes to the general consensus of the general public (non-weather nerds like us lol) it’s going to be windy. The difference between gusts 40-45 and 60-65 is irrelevant aha to us, though, it makes a big difference; it’s all relative.

As for the connection to snow, remember we were discussing how a snowpack would theoretically hold the temperatures near the surface down, which, with the warmer air above would help strengthen the inversion (create a stable layer that the winds from above couldn’t mix through)? Same concept with a cold ocean.

What we are seeing on NAM soundings is not necessarily weaker winds, but signals for a more pronounced inversion which would help to prevent the stronger winds from above making it down to the surface.
gotcha, will be intetresting to see if you and soul are right. And 40-45 and 60-65 around here anyways is the difference between most power staying on and most not. Threshold seems to be about 50-55 here, but it also depends on duration of the highest winds, ive seen storms with constant 40+ do some sporadic issues but constant 60+ mph would be crazily worse.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:29 pm

@rb924119 wrote:@jmanley32, the short answer is that I can’t honestly say. I think regardless, when it comes to the general consensus of the general public (non-weather nerds like us lol) it’s going to be windy. The difference between gusts 40-45 and 60-65 is irrelevant aha to us, though, it makes a big difference; it’s all relative.

As for the connection to snow, remember we were discussing how a snowpack would theoretically hold the temperatures near the surface down, which, with the warmer air above would help strengthen the inversion (create a stable layer that the winds from above couldn’t mix through)? Same concept with a cold ocean.

What we are seeing on NAM soundings is not necessarily weaker winds, but signals for a more pronounced inversion which would help to prevent the stronger winds from above making it down to the surface.

Let's hope so. We still have 6 inches of snow cover here so if that helps knock 20 mph off the wind speed max and give us at least a 50-50 of having power Christmas morning I'm all for it.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:35 pm

I heard this on the news too about the system slowing down ,and yes adding insult to injury, increasing the length of the storm duration and timeframe of arrival and departure.

Here is NWS discussion of the wind, no mention of inversion but they do say its difficult in the winter to forecast wind intensity (maybe due to this?) but nonethe;less they are saying 70mph is "reasonable"? If that is reasonable I fathom what the upper level of this potential has, or the lower potential, which ever happens, we cannot control it so observations it will be. What I would love about this being coupoled with snow would be being able to go out and measure the winds if I still had my handheld anemometer. In soaking rain I really won't go outside. They also upped rain totals, sorry CP, but I do not make the forecasts.

Winds crank up in the eve thru the overnight. The watch was
converted to a warning, with an advy issued elsewhere. Right now
peak gusts up to 70 mph look reasonable, especially along the
south coast of Long Island. The timing of the peak winds may
change as well with the slowing trend of the sys. Peak gusts
attm are progged for aft midnight. It remains a challenge
forecasting wind strength on sly flow in the winter, but the
modeling indicates 50-60kt blw 2000ft which adds some confidence
to high wind criteria, especially along the coasts.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:06 am

Ryan Hannrahan (whom I went to high school with) on the power threat, lovely. Trust me not to happy about this, daughter needs her xmas.

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread - Page 3 Ep9rxk10
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Post by docstox12 Thu Dec 24, 2020 6:19 am

On the way home from my Mom's in Fort Lee NJ, got a text from Orange and Rockland warning of the possible widespread outages.Hoping here in the LHV the remaining snowpack moderates the winds here as rb and CP mentioned above.Is it too much to see my Christmas lights on Christmas Day, LOL.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:52 am

Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e vertical increase throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.


Last edited by rb924119 on Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:59 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by phil155 Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:56 am

@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e inversion throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.

That would be a very good thing if this forecast busts

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2020 10:59 am

@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e inversion throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.
is there anyway to know when it's happening what's causing it? I mean a bust which isn't really a bust it's a win especially for cp etc. It would be a bust for nws and most news outlets.
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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 24, 2020 11:01 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e inversion throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.
is there anyway to know when it's happening what's causing it? I mean a bust which isn't really a bust it's a win especially for cp etc. It would be a bust for nws and most news outlets.

I’m not sure I follow your question.......is there anyway to know when what is happening/what’s causing what?

I agree, though; it would be a big win for our sensible effects and a big loss for the majority of forecasts IF this case study verified.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:27 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e inversion throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.
is there anyway to know when it's happening what's causing it? I mean a bust which isn't really a bust it's a win especially for cp etc. It would be a bust for nws and most news outlets.

I’m not sure I follow your question.......is there anyway to know when what is happening/what’s causing what?

I agree, though; it would be a big win for our sensible effects and a big loss for the majority of forecasts IF this case study verified.
let's say winds don't pan out which honestly it's pretty farm windy now my car is shaking so I wouldn't get on it busting but unwanted to know if there was a way to know if it indeed the theta whatever that caused the winds not to mix down so we know to look at it in the future.
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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:07 pm

My guess is for most people on this board, there will be enough time before the precip shuts off and the heart of the cold air arrives to avoid a flash freeze. The gusty winds should dry things out rather quickly. I would of course assume any huge lakes or puddles on the pavement may freeze, but I wouldn't think we are in for everything becoming a sheet of ice.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Dec 24, 2020 2:23 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e vertical increase throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.

Saw this discussed on Twitter earlier as well. One point made was that despite signals for the aforementioned inversion, we are also dealing with an anomalous LLJ not really seen before this time of year, locally. So the suggestion was to err on the side of caution forecasting wind potential, because even with inversion, it’s likely 40-60 mph gusts will still mix down to the surface, especially when the squally weather moves thru in the wee hours of Christmas morning. Really never ceases to amaze me how hard it is to forecast winds at the surface, though!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:12 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e vertical increase throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.

Saw this discussed on Twitter earlier as well. One point made was that despite signals for the aforementioned inversion, we are also dealing with an anomalous LLJ not really seen before this time of year, locally. So the suggestion was to err on the side of caution forecasting wind potential, because even with inversion, it’s likely 40-60 mph gusts will still mix down to the surface, especially when the squally weather moves thru in the wee hours of Christmas morning. Really never ceases to amaze me how hard it is to forecast winds at the surface, though!
yup all pretty much now cast. And winds are already ramping up here. Mixing down for sure. Wether we see the extreme top won't be known till it happens or not.
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Post by phil155 Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:16 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e vertical increase throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.

Saw this discussed on Twitter earlier as well. One point made was that despite signals for the aforementioned inversion, we are also dealing with an anomalous LLJ not really seen before this time of year, locally. So the suggestion was to err on the side of caution forecasting wind potential, because even with inversion, it’s likely 40-60 mph gusts will still mix down to the surface, especially when the squally weather moves thru in the wee hours of Christmas morning. Really never ceases to amaze me how hard it is to forecast winds at the surface, though!
yup all pretty much now cast. And winds are already ramping up here. Mixing down for sure. Wether we see the extreme top won't be known till it happens or not.


Hoping not for the extreme winds, really don't want to see widespread outages during the holidays

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Post by gigs68 Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:18 pm

what the expected start time for the gustier winds
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:30 pm

Umm, I just walked outside and the winds are already ripping over here in Long Island City. Granted we’re sort of a wind tunnel neighborhood anyway but this is earlier than I thought, prob 45 mph gusts already.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:38 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:Umm, I just walked outside and the winds are already ripping over here in Long Island City. Granted we’re sort of a wind tunnel neighborhood anyway but this is earlier than I thought, prob 45 mph gusts already.

I’ll also add that if you look on radar, light showers are sweeping thru Brooklyn and Queens right now, helping transport some of those winds to the surface. This is my big concern for later—convectively-driven winds in the heavier squalls.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:46 pm

Oof. Those winds across NYC tho...

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Post by phil155 Thu Dec 24, 2020 3:58 pm

Thus far here in edison the winds are not too bad, a bit gusty but not bad at this point and I have my fingers crossed this will continue to be the case but I doubt it

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e inversion throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.
is there anyway to know when it's happening what's causing it? I mean a bust which isn't really a bust it's a win especially for cp etc. It would be a bust for nws and most news outlets.

I’m not sure I follow your question.......is there anyway to know when what is happening/what’s causing what?

I agree, though; it would be a big win for our sensible effects and a big loss for the majority of forecasts IF this case study verified.
let's say winds don't pan out which honestly it's pretty farm windy now my car is shaking so I wouldn't get on it busting but unwanted to know if there was a way to know if it indeed the theta whatever that caused the winds not to mix down so we know to look at it in the future.

Well, considering it would be the only viable reason considering the data that we have arguing AGAINST the big winds making it to the surface, I would say that process of elimination would make it pretty safe to assume that would be the reason haha

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:10 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Verrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyyyy interesting to see the NAM 3k and the HRRR, along with the lower resolution GFS even hinting at a pretty stout low-level theta-e vertical increase throughout our forecast area. Theoretically, this should mean that these high wind forecasts bust pretty badly, but seeing as though this is the first time I’ve ever looked at it, and therefore, have zero in-situ experience with it, I will not definitively say one way or the other. But I wanted to put this out there for sake of discussion.

Saw this discussed on Twitter earlier as well. One point made was that despite signals for the aforementioned inversion, we are also dealing with an anomalous LLJ not really seen before this time of year, locally. So the suggestion was to err on the side of caution forecasting wind potential, because even with inversion, it’s likely 40-60 mph gusts will still mix down to the surface, especially when the squally weather moves thru in the wee hours of Christmas morning. Really never ceases to amaze me how hard it is to forecast winds at the surface, though!

Oo yeah, the anomalous nature of the event certainly needs to be considered, and I think from a purely public safety standpoint with regard to the holiday and travel and such, it’s fair for them to “up-sell” it, in my opinion. However, from a purely forecasting perspective, I personally am not sure it’s clear cut based on what I/we have been discussing.

I also agree with you that the convective nature of the squall line will probably be the best catalyst and chance to get the stronger winds to the surface, but it will be interesting to see how that plays out!

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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:11 pm

Currently, nowhere that I’m seeing is gusting over 30 kts, which I can confirm, at least here on LBI. It’s windy, but 30mph gusts seems about right based on what I’m seeing right now.

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Post by Grselig Thu Dec 24, 2020 4:23 pm

Winds in Wayne, NJ are about 15 max 23. Breezy. I hope that it is overdone. Especially for so many people tonight with potential power loss and cold tomorrow.
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