Re: Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread

[rb924119]

What’s even more concerning, is that not only is there no inversion, but the maximum lift is in the lower levels, and it’s STRONG.

[phil155]

I am thinking the strongest of the winds will likely be towards the shore and long Island but further inland realistically what should we expect, 30-40 sustained gusts to 50-60

[docstox12]

Euro gusts by me in the LHV are 46.I hope that is the highest or this busts out, and are lower.Frank and rb are concerned so that gets my attention.We do not want power outages on Christmas Day.2020 can't get the hell out of here fast enough!

[lglickman1]

Can someone explain why this particular storm is setting up to be such a potent wind maker, thx!

[jmanley32]

Yeah, Frank, I was checking forecast soundings too and all I can say is.........YIKES. And Jman, it’s obviously dependent on the situation (if there’s an inversion, for example, then the following won’t work), but generally 70-80% of 850mb winds is a fair estimate for the surface.

well yikes 850s are 110 130 on some models. 70 80% ain't good even for someone who is fascinated by wind. Sorry buys I know it's no fun but give me some credit I called it even b4 Frank or rb lol. I do know a few things and wouldn't said anything if I thought is was like most non events.

[jmanley32]

Euro gusts by me in the LHV are 46.I hope that is the highest or this busts out, and are lower.Frank and rb are concerned so that gets my attention.We do not want power outages on Christmas Day.2020 can't get the hell out of here fast enough!

I'll pray for you doc. Your dad in a better spot for this in terms of not seeing damage or minimal. But good spot for the gold. Next week will be more likely for you than me. I'm thinking bout eventually moving to like mohegan lake or mt. Kisco area.

[Frank_Wx]

Can someone explain why this particular storm is setting up to be such a potent wind maker, thx!

It’s pretty rare around these parts to see a low level jet match intensity of an upper air jet. The NAM is showing an LLJ of 90+ mph over Long Island along with 120 mph 250mb winds. Since the storm is originating from the south, it’s transporting north warm gulf air and that is clashing with cold canadian air mass. The arctic front ahead of the trough is being fueled by these things and my concern is the recipe is there for these winds to reach the surface.

Even if the 70+ mph gusts don’t verify, even 50 mph could be a problem for some of us. It’s gunna be pretty brutal

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Bye bye White Christmas. Bye bye power.

Amazing that this storm showed up on all of the models almost to the minute that the snow stopped falling last week and left us with a mantle of white, that ironically will be washed and wind swept away on Christmas Eve night. Very 2020 I should’ve known.

[rb924119]

Yeah, Frank, I was checking forecast soundings too and all I can say is.........YIKES. And Jman, it’s obviously dependent on the situation (if there’s an inversion, for example, then the following won’t work), but generally 70-80% of 850mb winds is a fair estimate for the surface.

well yikes 850s are 110 130 on some models. 70 80% ain't good even for someone who is fascinated by wind. Sorry buys I know it's no fun but give me some credit I called it even b4 Frank or rb lol. I do know a few things and wouldn't said anything if I thought is was like most non events.

Not trying to steal your thunder, Jman, your name is on this thread as the author for a reason

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Jman, that’s the smartest thing you’ve ever said. My daughter lives in Mohegan lake and they do pretty well in most of the storms. Not quite what we do in orange county but usually pretty close. The sooner you move out of that snow hole of Yonkers the better we will all be.

[Frank_Wx]

Bye bye White Christmas. Bye bye power.

Amazing that this storm showed up on all of the models almost to the minute that the snow stopped falling last week and left us with a mantle of white, that ironically will be washed and wind swept away on Christmas Eve night. Very 2020 I should’ve known.

I was telling ma on the phone this morning the most 2020 thing would be for you to actually lose power and have to cancel Christmas

We’re working on contingency plans in case it gets to that point

[Frank_Wx]

[docstox12]

Bye bye White Christmas. Bye bye power.

Amazing that this storm showed up on all of the models almost to the minute that the snow stopped falling last week and left us with a mantle of white, that ironically will be washed and wind swept away on Christmas Eve night. Very 2020 I should’ve known.

This is sure a kick in the head.Can't imagine what will happen flood wise out by Binghamton way when they get 2 or 3 inches of windswept rain over 40 inches of snow.My snowplow guy called me today to ask to put salt down late on Christmas Day after the big melt and flash freeze.
As you say, CP, just another reason to be rid of 2020.

[jmanley32]

Jman, that’s the smartest thing you’ve ever said. My daughter lives in Mohegan lake and they do pretty well in most of the storms. Not quite what we do in orange county but usually pretty close. The sooner you move out of that snow hole of Yonkers the better we will all be.

well that's kinda a insult and compliment at the same time but I heard through the vines and understand your sense of humor now. And although it would be better for snow there are other reasons I would stay here. It won't happen anytime soon snyways as it would be for a condo or House.

[jmanley32]

Yeah, Frank, I was checking forecast soundings too and all I can say is.........YIKES. And Jman, it’s obviously dependent on the situation (if there’s an inversion, for example, then the following won’t work), but generally 70-80% of 850mb winds is a fair estimate for the surface.

well yikes 850s are 110 130 on some models. 70 80% ain't good even for someone who is fascinated by wind. Sorry buys I know it's no fun but give me some credit I called it even b4 Frank or rb lol. I do know a few things and wouldn't said anything if I thought is was like most non events.

Not trying to steal your thunder, Jman, your name is on this thread as the author for a reason

was kidding. So these 60 plus maybe 70 plus winds is that confined to coastal jersey and long Island or could the city and my area potentially see this too? Yonkers has terrible tree care and it would be quite bad. At least we don't have the foliage. Oh nws is only calling 50 to 60 do you think they potentially up that in when they issue warnings? I've heard of it I think but do you think they might issue a extreme wind warning? I know they don't out west bc they frequently get winds gusting 80 + but we don't. As stated this is highly unusual. Hopefully we get snow next week to make up for it for our die hard snow fans. I like snow but clearly not as much as some. Which is totally cool.

[SoulSingMG]

In addition to the wind, Upton’s going with 2-4” of rainfall. What a messy Christmas morning coming up.

[jmanley32]

In addition to the wind, Upton’s going with 2-4” of rainfall. What a messy Christmas morning coming up.

Dayumm 3km nam, at 70-80% mix down is roughly 70-90mph, llikely overdone, but maybe.

[SoulSingMG]

Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

[jmanley32]

Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Oy vey (yes jewish family lol) I knew they would up the winds at least a bit. Gonna be nuts.  And its not a super like quick wind coming through go last several hours in the morning, good luck to oeveryone to keep the lights on. The timing of the warning lines up with 3km nam almost exactly.

[Frank_Wx]

[dkodgis]

O&R ALERT::The Company has declared a Storm Watch.  Rain and high wind gusts up to 60 mph are predicted for Christmas Eve into Christmas morning.  The storm activity has the potential to cause widespread power line damage and electric service interruptions. Company and contractor overhead line crews and tree removal crews are ramping up for a high-volume outage response to the storm. You can report your outage by texting OUT to 69678 or at www.oru.com/reportoutage.    Please remember for your safety do not touch or approach any downed wires.

[jmanley32]

wel lthat doesnt match up to the high wind warning at all and thats their product lol, how does that work. the orange areas in the HWW should be in purple as the warning says 65mph gusts. Weird. I see it is experimental, whatever its gonna be rough for most.

Edit ohhh I see its sustained OR gusts, wel lthey should have seperate maps for each.  I doubt anyone is seeing sustained 50mph.

Frank link to this? I cannot find it.

[jmanley32]

Con Edision news release.

Con Edison workers are prepared to spend their Christmas in the streets restoring power to any customers affected by the storm coming on Thursday night.

The company has secured more than 700 contractor workers to supplement its crews in the arduous work of replacing poles, wires and transformers. The company continues to seek more outside workers.

The company urges members of the public to stay away from downed power lines. Those lines could be live. For your safety, we may be guarding downed wires until crews make repairs. Our personnel may be in unmarked cars, but will always have identification.

The gusting winds can cause trees and branches to fall onto overhead delivery equipment, resulting in customer outages. Rain, combined with the melting snow, can soften the ground, making the trees more wobbly and likely to fall if the winds are strong enough.

[phil155]

wel lthat doesnt match up to the high wind warning at all and thats their product lol, how does that work. the orange areas in the HWW should be in purple as the warning says 65mph gusts. Weird. I see it is experimental, whatever its gonna be rough for most.

Edit ohhh I see its sustained OR gusts, wel lthey should have seperate maps for each.  I doubt anyone is seeing sustained 50mph.

Frank link to this? I cannot find it.

It seems like the worst of the winds should be towards the shore, nyc and long island. Not saying the rest of the area will not have a tough go of it as it seems like the entire area will have a tough time.
I really hope the power outages are not widespread and or long lasting

[SoulSingMG]

wel lthat doesnt match up to the high wind warning at all and thats their product lol, how does that work. the orange areas in the HWW should be in purple as the warning says 65mph gusts. Weird. I see it is experimental, whatever its gonna be rough for most.

Edit ohhh I see its sustained OR gusts, wel lthey should have seperate maps for each.  I doubt anyone is seeing sustained 50mph.

Frank link to this? I cannot find it.

It seems like the worst of the winds should be towards the shore, nyc and long island. Not saying the rest of the area will not have a tough go of it as it seems like the entire area will have a tough time.
I really hope the power outages are not widespread and or long lasting

This is the million-dollar question. Several New England pro MET’s are arguing those near the shore will actually see more of an inversion due to the cooler Atlantic waters, whereas inland areas (and not by much btw, I’m talking starting ~10 miles inland or so) see the highest wind gusts mix down to the surface.

[jmanley32]

wel lthat doesnt match up to the high wind warning at all and thats their product lol, how does that work. the orange areas in the HWW should be in purple as the warning says 65mph gusts. Weird. I see it is experimental, whatever its gonna be rough for most.

Edit ohhh I see its sustained OR gusts, wel lthey should have seperate maps for each.  I doubt anyone is seeing sustained 50mph.

Frank link to this? I cannot find it.

It seems like the worst of the winds should be towards the shore, nyc and long island. Not saying the rest of the area will not have a tough go of it as it seems like the entire area will have a tough time.
I really hope the power outages are not widespread and or long lasting

This is the million-dollar question. Several New England pro MET’s are arguing those near the shore will actually see more of an inversion due to the cooler Atlantic waters, whereas inland areas (and not by much btw, I’m talking starting ~10 miles inland or so) see the highest wind gusts mix down to the surface.

huh we go have ask someone like rb to discuss that, never heard of that.

uptons briefing. wow on the wind map. they going bulls horns.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/1223Public.pdf

[rb924119]

wel lthat doesnt match up to the high wind warning at all and thats their product lol, how does that work. the orange areas in the HWW should be in purple as the warning says 65mph gusts. Weird. I see it is experimental, whatever its gonna be rough for most.

Edit ohhh I see its sustained OR gusts, wel lthey should have seperate maps for each.  I doubt anyone is seeing sustained 50mph.

Frank link to this? I cannot find it.

It seems like the worst of the winds should be towards the shore, nyc and long island. Not saying the rest of the area will not have a tough go of it as it seems like the entire area will have a tough time.
I really hope the power outages are not widespread and or long lasting

This is the million-dollar question. Several New England pro MET’s are arguing those near the shore will actually see more of an inversion due to the cooler Atlantic waters, whereas inland areas (and not by much btw, I’m talking starting ~10 miles inland or so) see the highest wind gusts mix down to the surface.

This is incredible timing lol I was literally JUST thinking about this after I noticed the 3km NAM picking up on this aha it’s the exact same concept as what we were discussing with the snow a couple days ago, Jman. But to be fair, I don’t know how cool the waters actually are in relation to the warm advection aloft and really don’t have time to sit and look, so maybe somebody else could follow up and provide more insight.

As a tangent to this, I also recently discovered the theta-e plots on Levi’s (tropical tidbits’) sounding images and I really want to play around with those in future wind events, as they can be an immeasurably valuable tool in assessing general stability/instability and convective tendencies.

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