Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

10am Sunday - madonne

7am Sunday



10am

Hot Damn!

This is a good 850mb low placement by 12Z NAM. Much better.

NAMddddddddddddd!
NAMALICIOUS!!
WHAT I"D TELL YA NW SHIFT!!

I think you're going to see this hug the coast just like a lot of other storms have done this season. The negatively tilted 500 mb trough will throw moisture back inland on this.

Looks like a wet snow bomb for the coast, more of a higher ratio N&W. It is in and out. 6am to 2pm (if that).

Everyone joins in the fun here!

heehaw453 wrote:I think you're going to see this hug the coast just like a lot of other storms have done this season.  The negatively tilted 500 mb trough will throw moisture back inland on this.

That's been the pattern all winter, until it changes no reason to think different.

LI get puked on!!

BL/surface temps - a tick warm below 195 and LI but rates should help overcome that

NAM verbatim is a really fast and hard hitting storm. Wow.

As of 4PM Sunday

Then it crashes as it pulls away for LI and North Southern NJ if that is such a place?

You have to be concerned on the Jersey coast again. If this trends anymore NW as it very well could in tonights runs, rain will be a concern.

Grselig wrote:

amugs wrote:THTA IS PHNEOLOANL NEWS FROM JACK!!!
I can see another 50 mile shift NW great news. SB 2014 redux at play here peeps and who said history or big momma doesn't like p repeat herself?

1899 in the works for the week of Vday possibly.

Mugs, are you saying potential HECS, or greater?. I love it when a winter comes together.  

High end SECS to low end MECS is the ceiling right now. No block to slow this down - if there was then we'd see back to back HECS IMO - lets see what this system does today for spacing and possibly slowing the flow down a few more hours if it can!!

1899 in the works for the week of Vday possibly.
For this storm quite possibly if it all comes together.

Holy smokes ill take it

skinsfan1177 wrote:Holy smokes ill take it

That's awesome for the jersey coast, but early in the game too.

Don't spike the football yet. The 0Z tonight will tell the tale IMO, all of the energy samples will be on land by then and included in all of the data runs. It should be an interesting day.

I like this one not because it will have totals anywhere near as high as the last one, but it will have a better jet streak/dynamic than the last one. This should allow for a more expansive precip shield that can push further NW, even if the surface low pressure does slip a bit further S and E than is ideal.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Holy smokes ill take it

That's awesome for the jersey coast, but early in the game too.

Don't spike the football yet. The 0Z tonight will tell the tale IMO, all of the energy samples will be on land by then and included in all of the data runs. It should be an interesting day.

No way am I spiking the ball but it has gotten better and better for the coast and snj. After being skunked on last one im excited

amugs wrote:...North Southern NJ if that is such a place?

Or maybe Southern Central NJ?

Officially, Ocean and Monmouth are considered the "Shore Region", which is looking good on that map.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Holy smokes ill take it

That's awesome for the jersey coast, but early in the game too.

Don't spike the football yet. The 0Z tonight will tell the tale IMO, all of the energy samples will be on land by then and included in all of the data runs. It should be an interesting day.

Yep. I knew you were right last week when you said wait for the Sun 0z and I think you are dead right again. Also, the pattern 'ipsa loquitir', meaning it speaks for itself.

I can't even type, too much pessimism and whining in my head to even formulate thoughts. I'm going back to the Pen, to be with my precious...

12Z RGEM coming inline now with the NW push.

My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth. mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

It’s must gonna pour snow to get those totals that fast

12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

Does that trend bring in mixing issues to the coast?