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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:24 am

Hot Damn!
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Ref1km11
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:24 am

1pm WOW

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 601d54a5b80df.png.e7b0177ec0eaf946a0af210b6eabd407


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:25 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:24 am

This is a good 850mb low placement by 12Z NAM. Much better.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Nam85011

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:25 am

NAMddddddddddddd!
NAMALICIOUS!!
WHAT I"D TELL YA NW SHIFT!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 601d54a5b80df.png.e7b0177ec0eaf946a0af210b6eabd407

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:26 am

I think you're going to see this hug the coast just like a lot of other storms have done this season. The negatively tilted 500 mb trough will throw moisture back inland on this.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:27 am

Looks like a wet snow bomb for the coast, more of a higher ratio N&W. It is in and out. 6am to 2pm (if that).

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:27 am

Everyone joins in the fun here!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 217E3ED3-1E32-402B-8C7F-A0EC20760ABB.png.518335a1ae9968e7153cc240a5351943


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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:28 am

@heehaw453 wrote:I think you're going to see this hug the coast just like a lot of other storms have done this season.  The negatively tilted 500 mb trough will throw moisture back inland on this.

That's been the pattern all winter, until it changes no reason to think different.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:29 am

LI get puked on!!
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_41
BL/surface temps - a tick warm below 195 and LI but rates should help overcome that
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Namconus_T2m_neus_42

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Namconus_T850_neus_42

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Namconus_T700_neus_42


Last edited by amugs on Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:32 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:30 am

NAM verbatim is a really fast and hard hitting storm. Wow.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:32 am

As of 4PM Sunday

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Imagep10
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:33 am

Then it crashes as it pulls away for LI and North Southern NJ if that is such a place?

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_42

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Namconus_T2m_neus_43

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:37 am

You have to be concerned on the Jersey coast again. If this trends anymore NW as it very well could in tonights runs, rain will be a concern.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:38 am

@Grselig wrote:
@amugs wrote:THTA IS PHNEOLOANL NEWS FROM JACK!!!
I can see another 50 mile shift NW great news. SB 2014 redux at play here peeps and who said history or big momma doesn't like p repeat herself?

1899 in the works for the week of Vday possibly.

Mugs, are you saying potential HECS, or greater?😊. I love it when a winter comes together.  

High end SECS to low end MECS is the ceiling right now. No block to slow this down - if there was then we'd see back to back HECS IMO - lets see what this system does today for spacing and possibly slowing the flow down a few more hours if it can!!

1899 in the works for the week of Vday possibly.
For this storm quite possibly if it all comes together.


Last edited by amugs on Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:39 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:38 am

Holy smokes ill take itPossible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Image_11
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:42 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Holy smokes ill take itPossible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Image_11

That's awesome for the jersey coast, but early in the game too.

Don't spike the football yet. The 0Z tonight will tell the tale IMO, all of the energy samples will be on land by then and included in all of the data runs. It should be an interesting day.
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Post by MattyICE Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:44 am

I like this one not because it will have totals anywhere near as high as the last one, but it will have a better jet streak/dynamic than the last one. This should allow for a more expansive precip shield that can push further NW, even if the surface low pressure does slip a bit further S and E than is ideal.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:59 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Holy smokes ill take itPossible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Image_11

That's awesome for the jersey coast, but early in the game too.

Don't spike the football yet. The 0Z tonight will tell the tale IMO, all of the energy samples will be on land by then and included in all of the data runs. It should be an interesting day.

No way am I spiking the ball but it has gotten better and better for the coast and snj. After being skunked on last one im excited
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:13 am

@amugs wrote:...North Southern NJ if that is such a place?

Or maybe Southern Central NJ?

Officially, Ocean and Monmouth are considered the "Shore Region", which is looking good on that map.
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:22 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Holy smokes ill take itPossible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Image_11

That's awesome for the jersey coast, but early in the game too.

Don't spike the football yet. The 0Z tonight will tell the tale IMO, all of the energy samples will be on land by then and included in all of the data runs. It should be an interesting day.

Yep. I knew you were right last week when you said wait for the Sun 0z and I think you are dead right again. Also, the pattern 'ipsa loquitir', meaning it speaks for itself.

I can't even type, too much pessimism and whining in my head to even formulate thoughts. I'm going back to the Pen, to be with my precious...

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:24 am

12Z RGEM coming inline now with the NW push.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 8 Regem10

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:29 am

My only concern for the coastal plain is the low level warmth. mid-levels should be fine, but the low level warmth to the surface needs to be watched.

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Post by Snownyc Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:53 am

It’s must gonna pour snow to get those totals that fast

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:53 am

12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

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Post by dsix85 Fri Feb 05, 2021 10:55 am

@heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is correcting more NW too.

Does that trend bring in mixing issues to the coast?

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