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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:01 am

NAM!!!!!!!!!!!!LEADING THE CHARGE!!
WE"RE BACK !! Hopefully for teh duration LOL

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Nam-218-all-ne-instant_ptype-2710000.png.b362fe948b5be99223b9530c4bed5ff4

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Z

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:03 am

CHRIPS LOOK at the CCB with this - WHAT ON TARNIZEL IS HAPPENING HERE!!
Purple colors are frontgensis where heavy snows occurs - DBZ Zones

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_eus_50

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:07 am

EPS says hold on folks here we go!
Superbowl storm of 2014? LP that rides teh arctic front

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 AFD8F91B-B7EA-480D-B60E-479CE186752D.png.e0ee6bcaebc4ae08614963f6cb4fd5d4

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:10 am

Good trends all around this morning. This is why we don't jump ship until we get within about three days. As I just said to Alex, I find the models are notorious for "losing" storms right around the 5 or 6 day mark only to "re-find" them a day or two later.
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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:18 am

Basketball

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Post by dsix85 Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:30 am

The way this is setting up, is this a coastie special? We missed the real goods with this prior storm.

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Post by Irish Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:37 am

It looks like Rgem wants nothing to do with this system.  Anyone else seeing that?

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:39 am

@Irish wrote:It looks like Rgem wants nothing to do with this system.  Anyone else seeing that?

Yeah, I think it'll change though. I believe this is trending in the right direction.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:48 am

GFS will probably look similar to NAM based on this.  Let's see.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Gfs20

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:48 am

12z GFS definitely more interaction with southern and northern energies through hr 60. This run may do it. Certainly will be more NW from yesterday's wide right runs.
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am

Another bump NW on the 12z GFS
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Pratep15
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:53 am

It's getting there. See what GEFS looks like but I'll bet they'll be nice.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:55 am

The SE ridge is pushing this further NW.  That seems to be real.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Gfs50010

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Post by Irish Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:02 am

@aiannone wrote:Another bump NW on the 12z GFS
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Pratep15

I could see it being moist for 95 area.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:05 am

The GFS v16 has even a stronger SE ridge.  If that is real, then this will be a big storm for the area.  

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Para11

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:13 am

GFS is about 4 hours late fo rteh phase - it is notoriously late the party with these systems for some reason love to ask Dr. Alpert who is in charge of this model and the new Para Model as to why?

ICON is a hit again - like teh last storm it never wavered whilst teh other models went to big to nada only to bring it back. Not staying it will be big, no BIG HP to teh north and the flow is a bit fast so we'll get what we get adn we wont get upset right?
Sets up a bigger boy for teh end of next week IMO 10thish to 16thish.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:14 am

PARA also ticks NW

Good trends so far today at teh 500MB level and teh surface overall - I think it will play catch up to the 500 level.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Prateptype_cat.us_ne.png.024a56d15d2901ba9fe4749ef3e8e97a

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:16 am

Good jet streak here - move that about 50miles NW and its a SECS to low end MECS for many here

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Gfs_uv250_us_12

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:19 am

GEFS says HELOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-instant_ptype-2720800.png.13663776c2bec7de328cc25c950e52c9

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:20 am

GEFS much more amped and say to its OP you hitting that garage in Denver again??

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 9k=

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:21 am

Frame two

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-instant_ptype-2731600.png.babd3f0e844047c47235276ebab8f0b0

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:21 am

GEFS is more clustered and close to BM (left leaning).  Losing the big outliers now.

Interesting to see where this goes.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:21 am

For you Alex and Scott

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-instant_ptype-2742400.png.5350718d0e425e595f4bc5caa8c93e34

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Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:22 am

@amugs wrote:GEFS says HELOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 4 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-instant_ptype-2720800.png.13663776c2bec7de328cc25c950e52c9

That's really nice. Much more clustered as I posted too. See where this goes.

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Post by Irish Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:24 am

Any updates from the Euro as that was really SE?

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