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Monitoring February 4th

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:04 am

The GFS continues to come into clarity IMO with ice threat being route 80 on northward and I'm hoping that's more on the order of 1/4" which isn't causing power outages. Maybe 1-3" snow LHV,NEPA and NW NJ. Really don't think this is much more than that w.r.t. snow. Those closer to I95 maybe a coating and some modest ice accretion. The bigger threat for these folks will be the freeze that occurs when the precip is ponded.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:08 am

Freezing rain maps by each of the major 06z models...

GFS:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

NAM:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

EURO:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

Heaviest precip moves in between 5am-12pm on Friday. Here is the GFS vs EURO surface temps for:

7am GFS:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Gfs_T2m_neus_10

7am EURO:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Ecmwf_T2m_neus_19

Long story short, GFS and NAM are by far more aggressive with how far south the ice threat gets. But all of the models agree there will be significant icing for those N&W of NYC into lower NY. Anywhere from .50" to 1.00" of ice accretion is concerning, so please pay close attention over the next 24 hours and if things still look this way make preparations. Looking at the 2M temp maps, the GFS and EURO are not THAT far off, but GFS does come further south with the 32-degree line. That said, both models also show 850mb and 700mb temps to be above freezing for NYC and most of NNJ besides NW NJ. Therefore, I think the ice threat in these locations could be a tad over-blown, but I still think some icing is possible just not to the extent of what models are spitting out for N&W.

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Post by TheAresian Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:15 am

Winter Storm Warning posted for the western front. NWS calling for 9-12", but I look at the maps and I read what all of you say and I can see this one going either way. A few hours and a few miles either way will make all of the difference.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:27 am

TheAresian wrote:Winter Storm Warning posted for the western front. NWS calling for 9-12", but I look at the maps and I read what all of you say and I can see this one going either way. A few hours and a few miles either way will make all of the difference.

I think that's a good call for your area

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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:35 am

Frank when Do you think the changeover will occur for me because I’m nervous driving on Friday

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:48 am

frank 638 wrote:Frank when Do you think the changeover will occur for me because I’m nervous driving on Friday

Rain starts 12pm-2pm tomorrow. Rain gets heavy around 2-3am. Changeover to freezing rain around 6-7am and then we'll need to see how long we stay freezing rain until changing over to sleet and possibly snow.

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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:51 am

Thank you Frank

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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:53 am

In EPA the Pocono area when will the change from rain to freezing rain occur ? Also just wondering what the winds are going to be like ? Hopefully they won't be real gusty.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:59 am

SNOW MAN wrote:In EPA the Pocono area when will the change from rain to freezing rain occur ? Also just wondering what the winds are going to be like ? Hopefully they won't be real gusty.
Wind man here lol, as far as I know wind is not going to be a issue so that helps if there is sig icing.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:01 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Freezing rain maps by each of the major 06z models...

GFS:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

NAM:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

EURO:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

Heaviest precip moves in between 5am-12pm on Friday. Here is the GFS vs EURO surface temps for:

7am GFS:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Gfs_T2m_neus_10

7am EURO:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Ecmwf_T2m_neus_19

Long story short, GFS and NAM are by far more aggressive with how far south the ice threat gets. But all of the models agree there will be significant icing for those N&W of NYC into lower NY. Anywhere from .50" to 1.00" of ice accretion is concerning, so please pay close attention over the next 24 hours and if things still look this way make preparations. Looking at the 2M temp maps, the GFS and EURO are not THAT far off, but GFS does come further south with the 32-degree line. That said, both models also show 850mb and 700mb temps to be above freezing for NYC and most of NNJ besides NW NJ. Therefore, I think the ice threat in these locations could be a tad over-blown, but I still think some icing is possible just not to the extent of what models are spitting out for N&W.
Shows .5-1 for yonkers which is actually listed on these maps which is kinda cool depending on the model, do you think thats feasible in yonkers, if so I really hope as I said earlier I keep power. The only one that shows very minimal though still bad for driving is Euro. And luckily no wind as far I can see.
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Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:01 am

Thanks Jman. I'm hoping that's the case.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:30 am

SNOW MAN wrote:Thanks Jman. I'm hoping that's the case.
Well I don't if it makes it to surface but I looked at 850mb winds and along the main strip of heaviest precipitation which unfortunately is the frz they get to 60mph sustained at 850, so we may have a little wind like 30mph? maybe someone else can chime in, will there be enough convection to bring any winds down to the surface?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:31 am

SNOW MAN wrote:In EPA the Pocono area when will the change from rain to freezing rain occur ? Also just wondering what the winds are going to be like ? Hopefully they won't be real gusty.

Looks to be 1am-2am. Winds won't be a problem.

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Freezing rain maps by each of the major 06z models...

GFS:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

NAM:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

EURO:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc.us_state_ne_s

Heaviest precip moves in between 5am-12pm on Friday. Here is the GFS vs EURO surface temps for:

7am GFS:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Gfs_T2m_neus_10

7am EURO:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Ecmwf_T2m_neus_19

Long story short, GFS and NAM are by far more aggressive with how far south the ice threat gets. But all of the models agree there will be significant icing for those N&W of NYC into lower NY. Anywhere from .50" to 1.00" of ice accretion is concerning, so please pay close attention over the next 24 hours and if things still look this way make preparations. Looking at the 2M temp maps, the GFS and EURO are not THAT far off, but GFS does come further south with the 32-degree line. That said, both models also show 850mb and 700mb temps to be above freezing for NYC and most of NNJ besides NW NJ. Therefore, I think the ice threat in these locations could be a tad over-blown, but I still think some icing is possible just not to the extent of what models are spitting out for N&W.
Shows .5-1 for yonkers which is actually listed on these maps which is kinda cool depending on the model, do you think thats feasible in yonkers, if so I really hope as I said earlier I keep power. The only one that shows very minimal though still bad for driving is Euro. And luckily no wind as far I can see.

No, I think models GFS/NAM are over-doing the ice in and around NYC. Thinking .25" or less right now.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:36 am

@ Frank yes I concur BUT N&W maybe 15-20 miles it starts to get more serious IMO when you get 25-50 miles watch out.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:44 am

Models are really coming into good agreement now with the minimal snow threat. I think MattyIce called this out before so nice call, but it's hard to play catchup with cold air and advancing precip. Originally I thought we may get the front to stall a bit and another wave comes up to keep precip going after mid-levels crash. But more often than not that doesn't work out.

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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:22 am

12z NAM
Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc13
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Post by TheAresian Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:26 am

If this question doesn't belong here, let me know and I'll delete it, but there's something I've been wondering. Usually, we're talking about cold that's already in place and how well it will stay dug in when facing advancing warmth. This time we're talking about cold trying to advance on a warmer system. In both cases, it's warm and cold colliding, so as somebody who knows nothing I'm asking what the difference(s) is/are and how do they impact practical weather?

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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:30 am

Honestly I rather have sleet then freezing rain let’s hope we favor sleet and snow ⛄

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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:31 am

The latest from Upton:

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING A
CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING
NEW YORK CITY, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. EVEN
MUCH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, BUT
CERTAINTY DECREASES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH AND EAST. THE GEFS PROBABILITY
OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
FOR THIS EVENT, WITH A 50%-60% CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR KLGA AND
JUST OVER 50% FOR KISP. THE 21Z SREF ALSO HAD BETWEEN A 20% TO 40%
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR THE CITY AND LONG ISLAND, WHICH ARE HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS MODEL, ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT RUN HAS
BACKED OFF ON THESE CHANCES. FINALLY, THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
GENERALLY CAME IN COLDER WITH THE 00Z RUNS. IF THIS COLDER SOLUTION
CONTINUES, MORE IN THE WAY OF ICE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE
THAT COULD MEAN THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN DURING A PERIOD OF MORE
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WENT WITH ICE ACCRETION OF BETWEEN
A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR WESTERN LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK
CITY, NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHWEST
CONNECTICUT. ELSEWHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH IS EXPECTED. HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST ICE ACCRETION AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY, ANY
STANDING WATER FROM RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL REFREEZE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. WHILE THESE VALUES DO NOT PROMPT WINTER STORM WATCHES TO
BE ISSUED (0.50" OF ICE WOULD BE NEEDED), WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IF IT LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO EITHER OR
BOTH COMMUTES ON FRIDAY, AS THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO THE WINTRY MIX. OTHERWISE, GIVEN
THESE ICE ACCRETION AMOUNTS, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WOULD NEED TO
BE ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST PACKAGE OR THURSDAY
MORNING'S PACKAGE.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:05 am

aiannone wrote:12z NAM
Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Zr_acc13
that falls in line with franks thinking, not so bad but def be careful driving and avoid if you can.
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:11 am

12z GFS even more aggressive than its last run with the southern extent of ice accretion:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 5 Gfs_ic10
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Post by JT33 Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:13 am

Why is the GFS so persistent in showing this system dropping down between 06Z & 12Z on Friday? The NAM and others have it acting like a straight slider (using a baseball analogy), staying outside (of NJ - the Strike Zone) and tailing off into New England. The GFS, meanwhile, has the system acting like a late-breaking curveball. It seems to have been this way for at least 24 hours of runs and I'm not sure why. Any thoughts?

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Post by hyde345 Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:43 am

JT33 wrote:Why is the GFS so persistent in showing this system dropping down between 06Z & 12Z on Friday?  The NAM and others have it acting like a straight slider (using a baseball analogy), staying outside (of NJ - the Strike Zone) and tailing off into New England.  The GFS, meanwhile, has the system acting like a late-breaking curveball.  It seems to have been this way for at least 24 hours of runs and I'm not sure why.  Any thoughts?

The GFS, Ukie, and Euro have consistently been on the colder side of guidance and the Nam and CMC are warmer. GFS is more aggressive with the cold coming in earlier and farther south. It kind of make sense with the strong arctic high pushing south. I would not bet against that high and I think the Nam and CMC are too delayed with bringing that cold air south. We shall see who is right.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:46 am

JT33 wrote:Why is the GFS so persistent in showing this system dropping down between 06Z & 12Z on Friday?  The NAM and others have it acting like a straight slider (using a baseball analogy), staying outside (of NJ - the Strike Zone) and tailing off into New England.  The GFS, meanwhile, has the system acting like a late-breaking curveball.  It seems to have been this way for at least 24 hours of runs and I'm not sure why.  Any thoughts?

JT it is the strength and placement of the HP in SE Canada - or as we say the press by the HP or TPV = tropospheric polar vortex. As I showed last night from an accupro map a 1040's HP over this region is strong and you need a strong Low Pressure system to ram into this and bully its way more N. The arctic air is very dense, we are in height of winter, as Frank pointed out we have a huge snowpack over head in NE and the temps in Canada are in the -20'. Rb maybe onto a SE trend and if we can keep this going it will be more snow than ice for NNJ region but worse for CNJ.
I keep harping on the 1994 rain to ice to snow storms that hit us back then.

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Post by amugs Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:56 am

Here is your overview of cold that will plunge once again into the Continual US


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