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February Obs & Discussions

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February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:43 pm

billg315 wrote:44* and Cloudy. Had several drops of rain this morning at 40* with no flakes in sight, thus keeping my seasonal snowfall total at a Trace.
Forecast highs 61 and 54 for Thursday and Friday respectively before our weekly Friday Night-Saturday "cold wave."
Not that is matters because it's splitting hairs, but our hoods are about 25 miles apart shown by red dots. I have a little bit of elevation which helps in marginal events.  You probably have some albeit < 1".  I'm at a whopping 3.6".  Got to start looking at all time low seasonal totals because aside from another car scraper to two that may be it.  For sure this is the lowest totals I've seen around here so deep into the season.  Way surpasses the futility of 2019/20 season. 
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Snowfa19

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:30 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:44* and Cloudy. Had several drops of rain this morning at 40* with no flakes in sight, thus keeping my seasonal snowfall total at a Trace.
Forecast highs 61 and 54 for Thursday and Friday respectively before our weekly Friday Night-Saturday "cold wave."
Not that is matters because it's splitting hairs, but our hoods are about 25 miles apart shown by red dots. I have a little bit of elevation which helps in marginal events.  You probably have some albeit < 1".  I'm at a whopping 3.6".  Got to start looking at all time low seasonal totals because aside from another car scraper to two that may be it.  For sure this is the lowest totals I've seen around here so deep into the season.  Way surpasses the futility of 2019/20 season. 
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Snowfa19

My sister lives pretty close to where you are at and for there to be only about 3.6" in her neck of the woods is indeed rare. As for me, I'm a little surprised it even shows me having around .5" as I can't recall an event that did much more than dust the mulch and car tops, but I do think there was one system (might even have just been a snow squall) in January on a weekday that may have coated the ground back home while I was at work and mostly melted by the time I got home. It speaks volumes that I'm struggling to remember even that much.

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:34 pm

sroc4 wrote:
billg315 wrote:44* and Cloudy. Had several drops of rain this morning at 40* with no flakes in sight, thus keeping my seasonal snowfall total at a Trace.
Forecast highs 61 and 54 for Thursday and Friday respectively before our weekly Friday Night-Saturday "cold wave."

Bill.  Dont you mean "Cool Wave"??

Lol. Indeed. Other than the Christmas Eve and Feb. 4 cold events (where it actually did get down to near zero around here) even the few cold days are really not that much below average. Normally I wouldn't bat an eye at my Saturday forecast high of 33* in February.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:06 pm

Heavy T-Storm went though on 2/21.  Very August like type of storm.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:14 pm

Marble + sized hail stones in February.  Never seen that in February. Ever.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Hailst10

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:21 pm

Yep, the season of Wing continues. Heavy rain shower here with what appears to be a severe Thunderstorm cell just south of my area (probably the one that just blew through your area heehaw).
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:28 pm

A perfectly spring-summer radar in February.
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 3444a110
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Post by phil155 Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:35 pm

thunder here in edison

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Post by richb521 Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:02 pm

Thunderstorm went through in Hillsborough, NJ with some small hail and heavy rain. Think we may have gotten more hail than snow or sleet accumulation this winter lol.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:02 pm

45* and strong thunderstorm rolling through! Freaking Febuary... and now sitting and holding the dogs
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:20 pm

Just had a 55+ mph gust.  Like a squall line in late summer.  Temp at 44 degrees.

You can see the clash of air mass.  

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Airema10

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:48 pm

SOI hasn't been negative the entire month until today. Watch for consistency.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Soi12

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Post by phil155 Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:04 am

I hear there was a possible tornado yesterday?

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February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:36 am

heehaw453 wrote:SOI hasn't been negative the entire month until today. Watch for consistency.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Soi12

This morning is the first time Ive seen the SOI truly negative all winter season.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Maybe once or twice it dipped below -8.  (between +8 and -8 is technically considered neutral).  Is the atmosphere really ready to shift out of the La Nina forcing and warm MJO phase forcing?  Going to need more than 1-2days of negative SOI to convince me but its going to happen eventually.  

If you look at the latest MJO forecast you can see that there was abrief run through 8 and back into the center.  

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Ecmf_b16
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gefs_b16


That said the response in the atmosphere was still underwhelming in our neck of the woods.  If you look at the latest weekly OLR map notice I have two areas circled and compare to the MJO phase map

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Mjo_ph13
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Olr_we10


If you notice there are two circles.  The one east of the dateline(180*) lines up more with phase 1; whereas, the circle west of the dateline lines up more with phase 5-6.  What this means is you have convection, or rising air, going off in these circled areas, yet the MJO forecast indicates it moved through the phase 7-8 phase before collapsing back into the null phase.  This is because while the MJO may have looked like we had a phase 7-8 in reality it was the avg of the forcing east and west of those phases.  So basically you had forcing over MJO phases 8-1 combined with 5-6, combined with La Nina background forcing over the past week.  This is why it is very important not to just look at the MJO forecast and think the atmosphere  should behave a certain way because the MJO is "in" a certain phase.  

Changes to the SOI on the oirder of a week or more, can be a great indicator that the forcing along the tropical Pac is going to change.  So going forward, if it remains negative or neutral, and the OLR conts to percolate in areas east of the dateline with amplitude expect some legit cooler/colder, and whiter chances for the first week or two of March.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:23 am

Tornado in central Jersey yesterday has been confirmed by NWS Mount Holly. No rating or details yet, but talk about a wild winter season!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:29 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:SOI hasn't been negative the entire month until today. Watch for consistency.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Soi12

This morning is the first time Ive seen the SOI truly negative all winter season.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Maybe once or twice it dipped below -8.  (between +8 and -8 is technically considered neutral).  Is the atmosphere really ready to shift out of the La Nina forcing and warm MJO phase forcing?  Going to need more than 1-2days of negative SOI to convince me but its going to happen eventually.  

If you look at the latest MJO forecast you can see that there was abrief run through 8 and back into the center.  

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Ecmf_b16
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gefs_b16


That said the response in the atmosphere was still underwhelming in our neck of the woods.  If you look at the latest weekly OLR map notice I have two areas circled and compare to the MJO phase map

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Mjo_ph13
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Olr_we10


If you notice there are two circles.  The one east of the dateline(180*) lines up more with phase 1; whereas, the circle west of the dateline lines up more with phase 5-6.  What this means is you have convection, or rising air, going off in these circled areas, yet the MJO forecast indicates it moved through the phase 7-8 phase before collapsing back into the null phase.  This is because while the MJO may have looked like we had a phase 7-8 in reality it was the avg of the forcing east and west of those phases.  So basically you had forcing over MJO phases 8-1 combined with 5-6, combined with La Nina background forcing over the past week.  This is why it is very important not to just look at the MJO forecast and think the atmosphere  should behave a certain way because the MJO is "in" a certain phase.  

Changes to the SOI on the oirder of a week or more, can be a great indicator that the forcing along the tropical Pac is going to change.  So going forward, if it remains negative or neutral, and the OLR conts to percolate in areas east of the dateline with amplitude expect some legit cooler/colder, and whiter chances for the first week or two of March.
This latest value raises my eyebrow.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Soi13

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February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Empty Re: February Obs & Discussions

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 22, 2023 11:03 am

heehaw453 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:SOI hasn't been negative the entire month until today. Watch for consistency.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Soi12

This morning is the first time Ive seen the SOI truly negative all winter season.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Maybe once or twice it dipped below -8.  (between +8 and -8 is technically considered neutral).  Is the atmosphere really ready to shift out of the La Nina forcing and warm MJO phase forcing?  Going to need more than 1-2days of negative SOI to convince me but its going to happen eventually.  

If you look at the latest MJO forecast you can see that there was abrief run through 8 and back into the center.  

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Ecmf_b16
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Gefs_b16


That said the response in the atmosphere was still underwhelming in our neck of the woods.  If you look at the latest weekly OLR map notice I have two areas circled and compare to the MJO phase map

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Mjo_ph13
February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Olr_we10


If you notice there are two circles.  The one east of the dateline(180*) lines up more with phase 1; whereas, the circle west of the dateline lines up more with phase 5-6.  What this means is you have convection, or rising air, going off in these circled areas, yet the MJO forecast indicates it moved through the phase 7-8 phase before collapsing back into the null phase.  This is because while the MJO may have looked like we had a phase 7-8 in reality it was the avg of the forcing east and west of those phases.  So basically you had forcing over MJO phases 8-1 combined with 5-6, combined with La Nina background forcing over the past week.  This is why it is very important not to just look at the MJO forecast and think the atmosphere  should behave a certain way because the MJO is "in" a certain phase.  

Changes to the SOI on the oirder of a week or more, can be a great indicator that the forcing along the tropical Pac is going to change.  So going forward, if it remains negative or neutral, and the OLR conts to percolate in areas east of the dateline with amplitude expect some legit cooler/colder, and whiter chances for the first week or two of March.
This latest value raises my eyebrow.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Soi13

Need a couple more in a row before we call it real. Or enough to shake up the effects downstream in our neck of the woods. IMHO of course

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by 1190ftalt Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:53 pm

Snowing hard 35 degrees February Obs & Discussions - Page 6 50342a10
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Feb 22, 2023 1:51 pm

Sleet falling here for the last 20-30 minutes
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Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:06 pm

35 degrees starting to snow.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:34 pm

Light sleet here right now. Got report from New Rochelle, NY there are some flakes flying.
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:36 pm

I had some snow today.  35, but surface just too warm.  don't think anyone gets much out of this until you get into NH and ME. If there were cold air being drained down from Canada this would have been 3-6" NW NJ/LHV.  Didn't have the 1035 H parked in Quebec.  Partially due to AO state.

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:11 pm

36* at 2 pm started with sleet, still 36* but had some snow mix in at times, now back to almost all sleet.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:16 pm

The sleet has gotten chunky so I guess that's graupel. 37 degrees.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:19 pm

41* had icy pinging (graupel)...and Minneapolis going to get historic snow ..I can't hide my jealousy.😂🤣😢
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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:47 pm

38*with light sleet and rain

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:35 pm

33 with moderate snow.

Sticking everywhere except the roads. Always nice to see but also Mother Nature just teasing and playing with me again.
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