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February Obs & Discussions

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:40 pm

Records for Bridgeport CT go back to 1949 and their lowest seasonal snowfall is 8.2" which is the dreaded 72/73 season.  They currently stand at .8" and if this upcoming blocking fails yet again then they won't crack 2".  

Can cite many other examples on the EC.  Normally when records are broken the new value is kinda close but this is another level.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:54 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Records for Bridgeport CT go back to 1949 and their lowest seasonal snowfall is 8.2" which is the dreaded 72/73 season.  They currently stand at .8" and if this upcoming blocking fails yet again then they won't crack 2".  

Can cite many other examples on the EC.  Normally when records are broken the new value is kinda close but this is another level.

Amazing stats! The only thing I would watch for in March is a monster reversion to the mean with a massive snowstorm.If the current pattern does not break, then maybe next season will be more productive.

Wind howling, partly sunny, temp 42.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:56 pm

Hi of 60* today, now down to 44*. Looks like a few more showers to come through, and the front is just to my west.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:02 pm

Here's a new one. It's hailing and the sun is shining through the clouds.

Edit: or it could be sleet, but it was frozen either way.

Edit 2: when the sleet stopped, we got a full horizon to horizon rainbow, and now it's sleeting again


Last edited by essexcountypete on Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:27 pm

docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Records for Bridgeport CT go back to 1949 and their lowest seasonal snowfall is 8.2" which is the dreaded 72/73 season.  They currently stand at .8" and if this upcoming blocking fails yet again then they won't crack 2".  

Can cite many other examples on the EC.  Normally when records are broken the new value is kinda close but this is another level.

Amazing stats! The only thing I would watch for in March is a monster reversion to the mean with a massive snowstorm.If the current pattern does not break, then maybe next season will be more productive.

Wind howling, partly sunny, temp 42.

Doc, just me but I think I'd rather save that reversion for next January than get it this March. Not only are January 'Zillas > March 'Zillas at the Shore due to much better climo, but I'd just as soon keep building up that back-pay, so to speak. That, and I've already accepted this winter as snowless, so I want to be a little forward thinking here. Last January, coastal Ocean County got 2-3 yrs worth of reversion in one month, and for us it was amazing! I'd take that cycle every 2-3 yrs I think.

At Exit 80 GSP, it's 48*, windy, with what looks like some final back-building rain heading this way...

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Post by phil155 Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:36 pm

Had some sleet here in edison

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 17, 2023 6:56 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Records for Bridgeport CT go back to 1949 and their lowest seasonal snowfall is 8.2" which is the dreaded 72/73 season.  They currently stand at .8" and if this upcoming blocking fails yet again then they won't crack 2".  

Can cite many other examples on the EC.  Normally when records are broken the new value is kinda close but this is another level.

Amazing stats! The only thing I would watch for in March is a monster reversion to the mean with a massive snowstorm.If the current pattern does not break, then maybe next season will be more productive.

Wind howling, partly sunny, temp 42.

Doc, just me but I think I'd rather save that reversion for next January than get it this March. Not only are January 'Zillas > March 'Zillas at the Shore due to much better climo, but I'd just as soon keep building up that back-pay, so to speak. That, and I've already accepted this winter as snowless, so I want to be a little forward thinking here. Last January, coastal Ocean County got 2-3 yrs worth of reversion in one month, and for us it was amazing! I'd take that cycle every 2-3 yrs I think.

At Exit 80 GSP, it's 48*, windy, with what looks like some final back-building rain heading this way...

SENJ, agree but would bump that mean reversion to December 2023.As CP has discussed, December is my favorite month for getting a lot of snow.Days get shorter, sun angle drops and the Holiday mood is enhanced by it.It gives you the feeling that a long winter is in store ahead especially woth many days of December snowpack..I use that term "winter" loosely after this horrible one.

34 degrees, howling wind.It will be a rough one tonight for those going outside.
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Post by 1190ftalt Sat Feb 18, 2023 1:58 am

24 degrees, little windy and snowing!February Obs & Discussions - Page 5 21156510
February Obs & Discussions - Page 5 3f2c8a10
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Post by kalleg Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:25 am

30* and sunny in New Hope, a 30 degree drop since midafternoon yesterday...

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 18, 2023 3:00 pm

42 today.  Just a beautiful day and only thing missing is snow on OTG.

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Post by aiannone Mon Feb 20, 2023 9:19 am

hmmmm 12z 3k nam

February Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Sn10_a54

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 20, 2023 11:31 am

GFS spitting out a c-2" on Thursday for interior. I wouldn't dismiss it as the flow is being compressed significantly by the 50/50 and the TPV squeezing from the north.  You also have H pressure in Quebec to aid the cold air drainage. The L track caps this potential, but if someone on I84 says they got 2" out of this I wouldn't be surprised.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs163
February Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Gfs233

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 20, 2023 2:07 pm

61 today and right on par for mid-April.  Futility reigns supreme!

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 20, 2023 2:56 pm

Boy is that ever true heehaw!
57 degrees , partly cloudy, calm winds.NWS says a possible 1/2 inch of snow by morning,LOL!In a parallel universe maybe, not this planet.

NWS should listen to this song:Kind of reminds me of when we had actual winters and they were mine/ours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PIFDTuf2RM
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 20, 2023 4:29 pm

docstox12 wrote:Boy is that ever true heehaw!
57 degrees , partly cloudy, calm winds.NWS says a possible 1/2 inch of snow by morning,LOL!In a parallel universe maybe, not this planet.

NWS should listen to this song:Kind of reminds me of when we had actual winters and they were mine/ours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PIFDTuf2RM
Possibly, on colder surfaces.  Problem it's so fast and the antecedent ground temp is so warm.  It has to come down heavy enough and long enough to do that, but this GFS snow depth map is pretty good and it does show that for your area. Anyone looking at 10:1 ratio maps will be in for an unpleasant surprise.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:04 pm

I am in the dark

As in the dark part of the map image.

I love this site and another too:

https://weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-10-day-forecast.htm

because I am a novice with no access to anything but the above site has a 10-day, slide-your-finger gfs model amd Wed night looks interesting. If I read the colors right, that be ice and just under half an inch
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Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:16 pm

I am in the dark

As in the dark part of the map image.

I love this site and another too:

https://weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-10-day-forecast.htm

because I am a novice with no access to anything but the above site has a 10-day, slide-your-finger gfs model amd Wed night looks interesting. If I read the colors right, that be ice and just under half an inch
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Post by kalleg Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:19 pm

I grew up in Minneapolis, walked to school between 5 foot drifts, survived the Boston blizzard of '78, always look forward to snow, am sighing deeply with this year's Wall and Wing in New Hope.

Heard that LOTS of snow was going to fall in my old neighborhood, had to look up the NOAA predictions.
Read them and weep:
Tuesday 1-2 inches
Tuesday night 2-4 inches
Wednesday 1-3 inches
Wednesday night 8-12 inches
Thursday 5-9 inches
I didn't want to add it up, sighing even more deeply...

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:29 am

We are definitely stuck in one of those weather “ruts” now where every Saturday is cold (or what passes for cold this winter) with little or no precip and every midweek ridiculously warm with rain. I think this week will be the third or fourth straight cold Saturday in a pattern of unprecedented warmth. Unreal.
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Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:07 am

NEWS FLASH!!!
MASSIVE SNOWSTORM PUMMELS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NY.GROUND SOLIDLY COATED BUT,MIRACULOUSLY,SIDEWALKS AND ROADS ARE CLEAR SAVING TAXPAYERS THOUSANDS.THAT IS ALL.

32 degrees, cloudy, calm winds.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:22 am

I think Wednesday evening is probably a coating at best for NW folks on Thursday to be washed away quickly.  Folks here is the best way I can say the future of this season.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:30 am

kalleg wrote:I grew up in Minneapolis, walked to school between 5 foot drifts, survived the Boston blizzard of '78, always look forward to snow, am sighing deeply with this year's Wall and Wing in New Hope.

Heard that LOTS of snow was going to fall in my old neighborhood, had to look up the NOAA predictions.
Read them and weep:
Tuesday 1-2 inches
Tuesday night 2-4 inches
Wednesday 1-3 inches
Wednesday night 8-12 inches
Thursday 5-9 inches
I didn't want to add it up, sighing even more deeply...
I'm not sure when you came into these parts, but IMBY which is probably 30 miles from you or so the last real winter has been 8 years ago 2014/15. When I say real winter snow fell in DJF with consistency and stayed on the ground for good duration.  There have been snowstorms to be sure and I have had AN years snowfall since then, but it's usually a 4-5 week span that defines the snow season and then it's completely devoid of snow outside of that. We had a wonderful stretch from 2009-2015 and this may be the price to pay.

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Post by dkodgis Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:01 am

1/4 inch dusting this morning
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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:01 pm

44* and Cloudy. Had several drops of rain this morning at 40* with no flakes in sight, thus keeping my seasonal snowfall total at a Trace.
Forecast highs 61 and 54 for Thursday and Friday respectively before our weekly Friday Night-Saturday "cold wave."
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Post by sroc4 Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:13 pm

billg315 wrote:44* and Cloudy. Had several drops of rain this morning at 40* with no flakes in sight, thus keeping my seasonal snowfall total at a Trace.
Forecast highs 61 and 54 for Thursday and Friday respectively before our weekly Friday Night-Saturday "cold wave."

Bill. Dont you mean "Cool Wave"??

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:43 pm

billg315 wrote:44* and Cloudy. Had several drops of rain this morning at 40* with no flakes in sight, thus keeping my seasonal snowfall total at a Trace.
Forecast highs 61 and 54 for Thursday and Friday respectively before our weekly Friday Night-Saturday "cold wave."
Not that is matters because it's splitting hairs, but our hoods are about 25 miles apart shown by red dots. I have a little bit of elevation which helps in marginal events.  You probably have some albeit < 1".  I'm at a whopping 3.6".  Got to start looking at all time low seasonal totals because aside from another car scraper to two that may be it.  For sure this is the lowest totals I've seen around here so deep into the season.  Way surpasses the futility of 2019/20 season. 
February Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Snowfa19

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Post by billg315 Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:30 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:44* and Cloudy. Had several drops of rain this morning at 40* with no flakes in sight, thus keeping my seasonal snowfall total at a Trace.
Forecast highs 61 and 54 for Thursday and Friday respectively before our weekly Friday Night-Saturday "cold wave."
Not that is matters because it's splitting hairs, but our hoods are about 25 miles apart shown by red dots. I have a little bit of elevation which helps in marginal events.  You probably have some albeit < 1".  I'm at a whopping 3.6".  Got to start looking at all time low seasonal totals because aside from another car scraper to two that may be it.  For sure this is the lowest totals I've seen around here so deep into the season.  Way surpasses the futility of 2019/20 season. 
February Obs & Discussions - Page 5 Snowfa19

My sister lives pretty close to where you are at and for there to be only about 3.6" in her neck of the woods is indeed rare. As for me, I'm a little surprised it even shows me having around .5" as I can't recall an event that did much more than dust the mulch and car tops, but I do think there was one system (might even have just been a snow squall) in January on a weekday that may have coated the ground back home while I was at work and mostly melted by the time I got home. It speaks volumes that I'm struggling to remember even that much.
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