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February Obs & Discussions

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nutleyblizzard
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Post by billg315 Fri Feb 10, 2023 2:15 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Thank you Mother Nature if this holds.  Just imagine the angst in here had it been cold enough for snow and this materialized. 

February Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Ecmwf23

So true. Not sure what is worse: Spring-like temps and no snow in the middle of winter, or abundant cold air and a snowstorm that cuts off just a few miles to your south, so close you can smell it. Both are their own form of torture.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 10, 2023 4:37 pm

Down to 49 here.

It may drop below freezing tonight. Everyone cover your flowers and tender vegetation. Why no freeze warning?

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Post by crippo84 Fri Feb 10, 2023 4:42 pm

billg315 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Thank you Mother Nature if this holds.  Just imagine the angst in here had it been cold enough for snow and this materialized. 

February Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Ecmwf23

So true. Not sure what is worse: Spring-like temps and no snow in the middle of winter, or abundant cold air and a snowstorm that cuts off just a few miles to your south, so close you can smell it. Both are their own form of torture.

Imagine a winter (or wall to wing) with persistent spring like temps and no snow then we finally get a brief arctic blast and this happens, burying the south with snow with us just out of reach. Only to be followed by a long lasting stretch of above normal temps to close the season. I'd pray for our well being (mine included).

56 degrees with clear skies and good visibility now in Brooklyn.
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Post by Frozen.9 Sat Feb 11, 2023 3:25 am

All I can say is the heating bill's are nice to see...

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Feb 11, 2023 1:40 pm

This storm is dead to us and this post is about analysis.

Here's the closed-off ULL.  Sroc brought this up in that it's disconnected from the N/S due to fast PAC flow.  Can't wrap in the cold air that way around the center.  It's an excellent point. I would say this though if this wasn't cut-off via fast PAC flow this would track to our west as the height rises on its eastern flank would be to our west. ULL's that close off in LA normally will cut because in order for them to close-off they need a steep height rises next to the center as shown. What can do the trick sometimes is 50/50 low aided by strong Atlantic blocking that flattens the heights just enough to allow for a BM track.  Even with cold air aided by a stout H parked in Southern Quebec this would miss our area due to the height field suppression.  I hope this winter gives a good appreciation for just how difficult it is to get a snowstorm. The slightest issues in setup ruin the whole thing and that is regardless of a great 500mb pattern or not.

February Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Analys10

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 15, 2023 2:11 pm

66 currently IMBY and a bit breezy.  Getting deep into the spring season it seems. 

CPK +4.7 AN so far this month not including today.  After next few days will be +6.5 at least.  Two back to back +10's J/F? If we don't get a push of cooler air next week it's got a legit shot.  We're beyond 72/73 for the most futile winter in recorded history IMO and it's going to take more than a few c-1" car toppers to change that from here on out.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Feb 15, 2023 2:16 pm

67* is this NUTS on Feb 15th...
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Post by billg315 Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:12 pm

In what can best be described as absolute absurdity, I just came home from work and . . . opened my windows to let in the fresh air. On February 15.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Feb 15, 2023 6:25 pm

Had the windows open here too, was just shy of 68* and felt glorious!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  6"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by essexcountypete Wed Feb 15, 2023 8:43 pm

I still have my window open right now. It's getting a little chilly but that earthy spring smell is just wonderful.
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Post by kalleg Thu Feb 16, 2023 1:11 pm

66* and cloudy in New Hope, expecting rain within the hour...

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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 16, 2023 2:15 pm

62 degrees, cloudy, calm wind.Went to get mail outside and only needed a regular shirt.Sanity is a thing of the past, madness reigns!
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Post by GreyBeard Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:40 pm

Made it up to 68° before clouds rolled in, now down to 61°.`
Set a personal record today. First time I've ever been able to hook up the outside hose and give my 10 yr. old Labrador Retriever a bath in the middle of February, with me in a T-shirt no less. Took full advantage and washed the car too. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

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Post by essexcountypete Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:48 pm

We hit 68 around 1pm, which is my favorite temperature.

We have crocuses blooming and daffodils with flower buds at the ready.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:47 pm

68* before rain started now down to57*
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:21 pm

Hi of 68* here too, went out in shorts and a tshirt to run errands. For once I'm thankful, my left foot is in a boot and don't have to worry about getting around in snow.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  6"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Radz Thu Feb 16, 2023 9:26 pm

High of 65 today, crocuses blooming, daffodils and tulips already growing, this is crazy…
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Feb 16, 2023 10:07 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Hi of 68* here too, went out in shorts and a tshirt to run errands. For once I'm thankful, my left foot is in a boot and don't have to worry about getting around in snow.

Hope you feel better!
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:57 am

+7.1 AN in CPK not including today's AN.  It will get cooler next few days which will bring this down.  But if the blocking is an utter failure end of next week then +10 AN is possible as that SER will do its thing.  I'll be surprised for sure, but should I really be?

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:04 am

heehaw453 wrote:+7.1 AN in CPK not including today's AN.  It will get cooler next few days which will bring this down.  But if the blocking is an utter failure end of next week then +10 AN is possible as that SER will do its thing.  I'll be surprised for sure, but should I really be?

Yesterday wasn't in there

February Obs & Discussions - Page 4 MonthTDeptDEWS_NE

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:08 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:+7.1 AN in CPK not including today's AN.  It will get cooler next few days which will bring this down.  But if the blocking is an utter failure end of next week then +10 AN is possible as that SER will do its thing.  I'll be surprised for sure, but should I really be?

Yesterday wasn't in there

February Obs & Discussions - Page 4 MonthTDeptDEWS_NE
Nope CPK had high of 70 yesterday and +7.1 includes that. Probably +7.5 after today then it turns "colder".

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:08 pm

Heavy rain and wind picked up.Looks like a front coming through.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:35 pm

I too noticed that, doc. Windy! Heavy rain that I thought would come last night but didn’t. 53. Wood stove is on. I have not had the heat on for some three weeks. I sense it will snow in March, at least once. Lots of things popping up. Crocus, daffodil, etc.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:54 pm

February Obs & Discussions - Page 4 19da9610

Doc and CP today in the city
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:59 pm

dkodgis wrote:February Obs & Discussions - Page 4 19da9610

Doc and CP today in the city
Two more weeks of weather like this and that will be CP and me on the way to the OTI Sanitarium,.

Winds calmed down now.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:40 pm

Records for Bridgeport CT go back to 1949 and their lowest seasonal snowfall is 8.2" which is the dreaded 72/73 season.  They currently stand at .8" and if this upcoming blocking fails yet again then they won't crack 2".  

Can cite many other examples on the EC.  Normally when records are broken the new value is kinda close but this is another level.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:54 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Records for Bridgeport CT go back to 1949 and their lowest seasonal snowfall is 8.2" which is the dreaded 72/73 season.  They currently stand at .8" and if this upcoming blocking fails yet again then they won't crack 2".  

Can cite many other examples on the EC.  Normally when records are broken the new value is kinda close but this is another level.

Amazing stats! The only thing I would watch for in March is a monster reversion to the mean with a massive snowstorm.If the current pattern does not break, then maybe next season will be more productive.

Wind howling, partly sunny, temp 42.
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