September Obs & Discussions

docstox12 wrote:

amugs wrote:Weekend storm coastal showing up - buckle up?

Let's get that pattern clicked in solid by November so we can have an epic winter.

That would be great! Last years grand total of 5 inches from one storm was just a incredible joke, only plus was easy street parking and no back breaking shoveling (hopefully my shoulder, rotator cuff injury right arm, is better from physical therapy by winter).

three inche of rain so far.

Just a soaker of a day, dried out for a while only to have a few hours of intense rain and thunder from about 5-7. I am so sick of all this rain, and this weekend will be a wash too if that system develops off SC.

East Based NAO block and Aleutian LP(Neg EPO)

Here comes our first Nor'easter of the season

Ghost of 96?? Nor'easter !!







Imagine when, not if this is winter!!

Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...

weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...

No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...

No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

Not by much. Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble. Have a feeling its coming north

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...

No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

Not by much.  Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble.  Have a feeling its coming north

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/neng/total_precip_inch/1695124800/1695859200-0kANzIYSE0Q.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/neng/total_precip_inch/1695124800/1695859200-ZaM6VIpbvgE.png

GFS and its Ensemble...pretty sure area wide 1-3" is a good bet at this point. Time for change though

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...

No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

I won't let the rain spoil my trip..it's Ireland..I just don't want to give the airlines an excuse to delay lol ..going to rain every day..lol I am ready..don't let rain spoil your day!!

https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared

dkodgis wrote:https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared

lol

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...

No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

Not by much.  Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble.  Have a feeling its coming north

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/neng/total_precip_inch/1695124800/1695859200-0kANzIYSE0Q.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/neng/total_precip_inch/1695124800/1695859200-ZaM6VIpbvgE.png

GFS and its Ensemble...pretty sure area wide 1-3" is a good bet at this point.  Time for change though

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/neng/total_precip_inch/1695124800/1695859200-13zq9rrThTo.png

Yup you are right, i cant see the ensembles and they usually paint a better picture. And remember there will likely be imbedded t-storms especially if this storm does actually develop some sort of circulation then tornadoes become possible as do much higher localized rain amounts. Seems my area has been the brunt of many of these flooding rains.

GFS and GGEM since its supercomputer upgrade have been on this. Euro OP not what it use to be.

Some 2 part Nor'easter for ya!

dkodgis wrote:https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared

Exactly..lol

Model round up

amugs wrote:Model round up

That CMC is crazy all the way up to canadian border wow. And nice call scott, Euro dide go sig closer to the area, looks like consensus is a washout weekend, just not exactly sure about amounts but ya 1-3+ i think isa good bed. im inclined to bet over 2 is more likely than 1.

Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.

rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.

RB- live out in eastern LI near Sroc- any chance this rain holds off until Saturday afternoon? Golf outing Saturday morning in Greenport, LI that I hope we might have a fighting chance to get in.

rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.

Bastardi sees TS landfall in SC, would the coast include NYC and immediate suburbs or are you talking like LI and immediate jersey shore, I know it appears anywhere that rain will be the main culprit. Is there any reason that NHC has not upped chances of development yet, as best as you can guess or analyze?

GFS is further east weaker, CMC is a crush job, man if this was only snow! TS rains and wind for most of the area sat and sun. Major flooding concern if this verifies.

dsix85 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.

RB- live out in eastern LI near Sroc- any chance this rain holds off until Saturday afternoon? Golf outing Saturday morning in Greenport, LI that I hope we might have a fighting chance to get in.

See map I just posted of CMC, all models are pretty honed in on it moving in Sat morning and possibly lingering till Sun night, Mon if that secondary happens. I know I had outdoor plans Sat morning too but nearly positive they are squashed.

GEFS are wet - not build an ark wet but



Canadian model is a major flooding rainstorm

This from JB, here we go, not super high but enough to do some tree damage with how saturated the ground is and some coastal flooding too likely.

I imagine the CMC gusts may be higher being it has more intense rains and a bit stronger of a system.