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September Obs & Discussions

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Post by docstox12 Mon Sep 18, 2023 2:37 pm

amugs wrote:Weekend storm coastal showing up - buckle up?

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6UPW1DWQAAS9Xa?format=jpg&name=medium

Let's get that pattern clicked in solid by November so we can have an epic winter.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:39 pm

docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:Weekend storm coastal showing up - buckle up?

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6UPW1DWQAAS9Xa?format=jpg&name=medium

Let's get that pattern clicked in solid by November so we can have an epic winter.
That would be great! Last years grand total of 5 inches from one storm was just a incredible joke, only plus was easy street parking and no back breaking shoveling (hopefully my shoulder, rotator cuff injury right arm, is better from physical therapy by winter).

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Post by dkodgis Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:27 pm

three inche of rain so far.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 18, 2023 7:19 pm

Just a soaker of a day, dried out for a while only to have a few hours of intense rain and thunder from about 5-7. I am so sick of all this rain, and this weekend will be a wash too if that system develops off SC.
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Post by amugs Mon Sep 18, 2023 9:00 pm

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_z512

East Based NAO block and Aleutian LP(Neg EPO)

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:09 pm

Here comes our first Nor'easter of the season


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Post by amugs Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:22 pm

Ghost of 96?? Nor'easter !!

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21

Imagine when, not if this is winter!!

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_23

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Post by docstox12 Tue Sep 19, 2023 2:28 pm

Hope that storm you picture above Mugs, gets the pattern in line for a classic winter!
Picture perfect homeowner day, no AC or heat needed,LOL.69 degrees, partly cloudy, light winds,low humidity.Fall comes in a few days!!!! Will be in the 40's at night the next few nights up here.Trees changing now.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 19, 2023 3:58 pm

Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...☘☘
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:06 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...☘☘
No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...☘☘
No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

Not by much. Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble. Have a feeling its coming north





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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:24 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...☘☘
No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

Not by much.  Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble.  Have a feeling its coming north






GFS and its Ensemble...pretty sure area wide 1-3" is a good bet at this point. Time for change though


September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 1695859200-6zFHNQbjG4g

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:29 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...☘☘
No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.
I won't let the rain spoil my trip..it's Ireland..I just don't want to give the airlines an excuse to delay lol ..going to rain every day..lol I am ready..don't let rain spoil your day!!
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Post by dkodgis Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:04 pm

https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:19 pm

dkodgis wrote:https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared
lol
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Wow I looked at 10 day and thought I was looking at the weather for Ireland..but then realized it's home..lol the only diff in forecast is it's cooler in Ireland..thank goodness rain won't start till Saturday..have flight out on Fri...☘☘
No, no rain on Sat wither lol, will ruin my plans but looks to so anyways, 12z Euro misses the area.

Not by much.  Euro op doesnt jive with the ensemble.  Have a feeling its coming north






GFS and its Ensemble...pretty sure area wide 1-3" is a good bet at this point.  Time for change though


September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 1695859200-6zFHNQbjG4g
Yup you are right, i cant see the ensembles and they usually paint a better picture. And remember there will likely be imbedded t-storms especially if this storm does actually develop some sort of circulation then tornadoes become possible as do much higher localized rain amounts. Seems my area has been the brunt of many of these flooding rains.
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:26 pm

GFS and GGEM since its supercomputer upgrade have been on this. Euro OP not what it use to be.

Some 2 part Nor'easter for ya!

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gfs11

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 19, 2023 8:52 pm

dkodgis wrote:https://youtu.be/W0ULgXjo4Yo?feature=shared

Exactly..lol 😂
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 20, 2023 8:47 am

Model round up

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6diBUWWQAAT5Ma?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:50 am

amugs wrote:Model round up

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6diBUWWQAAT5Ma?format=jpg&name=large
That CMC is crazy all the way up to canadian border wow. And nice call scott, Euro dide go sig closer to the area, looks like consensus is a washout weekend, just not exactly sure about amounts but ya 1-3+ i think isa good bed. im inclined to bet over 2 is more likely than 1.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:16 am

Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.

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Post by dsix85 Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:22 am

rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.

RB- live out in eastern LI near Sroc- any chance this rain holds off until Saturday afternoon? Golf outing Saturday morning in Greenport, LI that I hope we might have a fighting chance to get in.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 20, 2023 11:24 am

rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.
Bastardi sees TS landfall in SC, would the coast include NYC and immediate suburbs or are you talking like LI and immediate jersey shore, I know it appears anywhere that rain will be the main culprit. Is there any reason that NHC has not upped chances of development yet, as best as you can guess or analyze?
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 20, 2023 12:28 pm

GFS is further east weaker, CMC is a crush job, man if this was only snow! TS rains and wind for most of the area sat and sun. Major flooding concern if this verifies.

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gem_ms10

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September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 Gem_ap10
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 20, 2023 12:29 pm

dsix85 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Whether this system gets a name or not, those of us along the coast can expect at least tropical storm conditions this weekend with periods of coastal flooding at times of high tide. This is a very tricky forecast, and I haven’t had the frame of mind to sit and try to pinpoint this system yet. I’ll try to sit down tonight and take a closer look, but I would not be surprised to see this ramp up quickly and possibly over-achieve in intensity early on. That said, I can also see it unwind as quickly as it winds up. As I said, I’ll try to post later to discuss more clearly.

RB- live out in eastern LI near Sroc- any chance this rain holds off until Saturday afternoon? Golf outing Saturday morning in Greenport, LI that I hope we might have a fighting chance to get in.
See map I just posted of CMC, all models are pretty honed in on it moving in Sat morning and possibly lingering till Sun night, Mon if that secondary happens. I know I had outdoor plans Sat morning too but nearly positive they are squashed.
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Post by amugs Wed Sep 20, 2023 1:24 pm

GEFS are wet - not build an ark wet but

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6fCcIpaQAECsnF?format=jpg&name=medium

Canadian model is a major flooding rainstorm

September Obs & Discussions - Page 4 F6fCcIpaQAAgh0s?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Sep 20, 2023 2:13 pm

This from JB, here we go, not super high but enough to do some tree damage with how saturated the ground is and some coastal flooding too likely.

I imagine the CMC gusts may be higher being it has more intense rains and a bit stronger of a system.

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