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December 2023 Observations and Discussion

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:31 pm

53*, rain for the last few hours, but not really much, about quarter of an inch so far. Just ick.

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:32 pm

Can I get one flake?

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:42 pm

WOW, this thing really fell apart on the NAM lol if somebody could post the three-run trend at H5 from 00z to 18z today, it’s pretty apparent. What a horrible performance. And really, as Scott pointed out earlier, that goes for all guidance.

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 10, 2023 3:55 pm

aiannone wrote:Can I get one flake?

Here ya go, and it won't melt lol

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Snowfl10

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Sun Dec 10, 2023 4:08 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
aiannone wrote:Can I get one flake?

Here ya go, and it won't melt lol

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Snowfl10

LOL thank you.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 10, 2023 4:12 pm

Snowflakes. Infinite diversity in infinite proportions.

Beautiful.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 10, 2023 4:15 pm

High 50's a few hrs ago when I was out car said 57 and heavy rain non-stop. No wind, but I don't think that kicks in (if it does at all this far west) until tonight. As we know winds usually underperform anyways.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by aiannone Sun Dec 10, 2023 4:23 pm

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Img_4210

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Post by phil155 Sun Dec 10, 2023 4:50 pm

It looks like that is Monmouth county and NE. It will be very interesting to see the evolution of this system and where the convective bands of heaviest rain set up

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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:11 pm

aiannone wrote:December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Img_4210


lol that purple line goes right over mugsy and I in NENJ. Every time someone draws a map with lines whether it's snow or whatever, it always goes right over us.

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by phil155 Sun Dec 10, 2023 7:57 pm

Looks like some heavier rain is starting to make it way in from the south west

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 10, 2023 8:13 pm

Winds starting 18-20 mphs and raining again we had a lull for a bit
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 10, 2023 8:18 pm

A few hrs ago winds were nearly calm per nearby weather station now 15mph gusting to 20mph. No big deal but it is certainly a increase. Very heavy rain moving into my area, though CT has the higest potention for flooding with 6+ amounts they have almost no rain right now, I guess as the LP moves up it will obviously shift east but carry much heavier precipitation with it?
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Post by dkodgis Sun Dec 10, 2023 8:23 pm

I’ve got a band on the run over my house. More rain now but just rain. Nothing to write home about. 51. Wind at 5 mph now and gusts of 10
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 10, 2023 9:02 pm

Here dunzoo, update from WPC not through your house anymore much farther west. Discussion below.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Mcd11910

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110147Z - 110747Z

Summary...A brief lull in the flash flood threat exists in the
short term, but additional heavy rainfall over the Mid-Atlantic
will move into the discussion area and pose a risk of flash
flooding - especially in urbanized areas.

Discussion...The flash flood threat continues across the
discussion area. A brief lull in rainfall has occurred over the
past hour or so, with the heaviest rain rates confined to much of
New Jersey and areas to the south and west. An extensive warm
conveyor remains in place across the region, which was maintaining
anomalous instability (500 J/kg MUCAPE) and moisture (1.3-1.4 inch
PW values), while weak/subtle shortwaves aloft have helped to
focus convective development. The complex across New Jersey and
points southwest have generally resulted in 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain
rates and spots of 1.5-2 inch totals in a three-hour period.
These rates will result in an increasing flash flood risk tonight
as heavier rain reaches southern New England - especially given
the antecedent rainfall and wet soils across the region.

There is some concern that even heavier rates may materialize
across the region in the 03-06Z timeframe. A cold front currently
over eastern Pennsylvania and central Maryland was approaching and
should slowly traverse the discussion area from west to east
through the night. Meanwhile, low-level wind fields are expected
to increase dramatically. The resulting increase in low-level
convergence and marginal buoyancy should continue to support heavy
rainfall, and some models suggest potential for 2-3 inch totals in
3 hours that would exceed local FFG - especially in southern New
England. Should the rainfall materialize as progged, flash
flooding will become likely overnight.
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 10, 2023 9:36 pm

From the looks of the HRRR the squall line moves through east of NYC and the only places that see any wind at all is central LI and points east, sroc you could get hit pretty hard. Everyone else likely won't see much, just rain. Hoping it is done by the morning, nothing worse than a soaking Monday morning.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Dec 10, 2023 9:38 pm

Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 10, 2023 10:02 pm

We have heavy rain over us
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 10, 2023 10:05 pm

frank 638 wrote:Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.
Nah as I said I think it is all east f about central LI (western LI may even be spared sig winds_). We will see, I know I will be sound asleep by then and since I use a white noise machine to help sleep I often dont wake to much even sirens.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 10, 2023 10:37 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.
Nah as I said I think it is all east f about central LI (western LI may even be spared sig winds_). We will see, I know I will be sound asleep by then and since I use a white noise machine to help sleep I often dont wake to much even sirens.

Heavy rain and winds around 20 right now . Almost training
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:28 pm

Officially a wintry mix up here right now. Rain, sleet, snow, we’ve got it all lol 36°.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:35 pm

I’d say 60% snow, 20% sleet and 20% rain. Cars are slushy, but that’s about it so far. Good night all.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:37 pm

I must admit, I’m surprised it went this early. I’ll see what I wake up to. What a kick in the teeth this would be….

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:45 pm

100% snow now, light stickage on colder surfaces, I’ll call it SN.

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Post by 1190ftalt Mon Dec 11, 2023 1:37 am

Heavy wet snow, 35 degrees, not sticking to anything, looking good!
   Good Luck!December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 E4920510
December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 A4e1a910
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Post by 1190ftalt Mon Dec 11, 2023 4:14 am

4:10 in am, snowing heavy flakes, cars covered pretty good sticking to grass not roads, 32 degrees!
   Good Luck!December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 A9d08d10
December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 61f55f10
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December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Empty Re: December 2023 Observations and Discussion

Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 11, 2023 4:29 am

34 and mixing with snow. along and west of this line it probably has started to mix or turn over.

December 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 24010

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