December 2023 Observations and Discussion

53*, rain for the last few hours, but not really much, about quarter of an inch so far. Just ick.

Can I get one flake?

WOW, this thing really fell apart on the NAM lol if somebody could post the three-run trend at H5 from 00z to 18z today, it’s pretty apparent. What a horrible performance. And really, as Scott pointed out earlier, that goes for all guidance.

aiannone wrote:Can I get one flake?

Here ya go, and it won't melt lol

Dunnzoo wrote:

aiannone wrote:Can I get one flake?

Here ya go, and it won't melt lol

LOL thank you.

Snowflakes. Infinite diversity in infinite proportions.

Beautiful.

High 50's a few hrs ago when I was out car said 57 and heavy rain non-stop. No wind, but I don't think that kicks in (if it does at all this far west) until tonight. As we know winds usually underperform anyways.

It looks like that is Monmouth county and NE. It will be very interesting to see the evolution of this system and where the convective bands of heaviest rain set up

aiannone wrote:

lol that purple line goes right over mugsy and I in NENJ. Every time someone draws a map with lines whether it's snow or whatever, it always goes right over us.

Looks like some heavier rain is starting to make it way in from the south west

A few hrs ago winds were nearly calm per nearby weather station now 15mph gusting to 20mph. No big deal but it is certainly a increase. Very heavy rain moving into my area, though CT has the higest potention for flooding with 6+ amounts they have almost no rain right now, I guess as the LP moves up it will obviously shift east but carry much heavier precipitation with it?

I’ve got a band on the run over my house. More rain now but just rain. Nothing to write home about. 51. Wind at 5 mph now and gusts of 10

Here dunzoo, update from WPC not through your house anymore much farther west. Discussion below.



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110147Z - 110747Z

Summary...A brief lull in the flash flood threat exists in the
short term, but additional heavy rainfall over the Mid-Atlantic
will move into the discussion area and pose a risk of flash
flooding - especially in urbanized areas.

Discussion...The flash flood threat continues across the
discussion area. A brief lull in rainfall has occurred over the
past hour or so, with the heaviest rain rates confined to much of
New Jersey and areas to the south and west. An extensive warm
conveyor remains in place across the region, which was maintaining
anomalous instability (500 J/kg MUCAPE) and moisture (1.3-1.4 inch
PW values), while weak/subtle shortwaves aloft have helped to
focus convective development. The complex across New Jersey and
points southwest have generally resulted in 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain
rates and spots of 1.5-2 inch totals in a three-hour period.
These rates will result in an increasing flash flood risk tonight
as heavier rain reaches southern New England - especially given
the antecedent rainfall and wet soils across the region.

There is some concern that even heavier rates may materialize
across the region in the 03-06Z timeframe. A cold front currently
over eastern Pennsylvania and central Maryland was approaching and
should slowly traverse the discussion area from west to east
through the night. Meanwhile, low-level wind fields are expected
to increase dramatically. The resulting increase in low-level
convergence and marginal buoyancy should continue to support heavy
rainfall, and some models suggest potential for 2-3 inch totals in
3 hours that would exceed local FFG - especially in southern New
England. Should the rainfall materialize as progged, flash
flooding will become likely overnight.

From the looks of the HRRR the squall line moves through east of NYC and the only places that see any wind at all is central LI and points east, sroc you could get hit pretty hard. Everyone else likely won't see much, just rain. Hoping it is done by the morning, nothing worse than a soaking Monday morning.

Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.

frank 638 wrote:Not as windy as before when I got home from New Rochelle at 8 o’clock moderate rain right now hopefully tonight it won’t be that windy. Last thing we need is losing power.

Nah as I said I think it is all east f about central LI (western LI may even be spared sig winds_). We will see, I know I will be sound asleep by then and since I use a white noise machine to help sleep I often dont wake to much even sirens.

Officially a wintry mix up here right now. Rain, sleet, snow, we’ve got it all lol 36°.

I’d say 60% snow, 20% sleet and 20% rain. Cars are slushy, but that’s about it so far. Good night all.

I must admit, I’m surprised it went this early. I’ll see what I wake up to. What a kick in the teeth this would be….

100% snow now, light stickage on colder surfaces, I’ll call it SN.

Heavy wet snow, 35 degrees, not sticking to anything, looking good!
   Good Luck!

4:10 in am, snowing heavy flakes, cars covered pretty good sticking to grass not roads, 32 degrees!
   Good Luck!

34 and mixing with snow. along and west of this line it probably has started to mix or turn over.