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JAN 16th Arctic Front I

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Dunnzoo
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:10 pm

22.5° light snow for the past half hour, humidity 63% which is encouraging it was 42% an hour ago and had me concerned.

It will be interesting to see what the morning brings, anything from 1.5 to 4-5 inches otg for wakeup seems possible, I'd hedge to the lower end atm.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:11 pm

0Z GFS holds - snow/mixes until 3PM Metro Area

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 1705482000-27CUGNXauiw

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:11 pm

15-20:1 ratios in this outlined zone!!

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Conten10


Last edited by amugs on Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:16 pm; edited 1 time in total

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by aiannone Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:13 pm

Al, just saw the warnings issued in DC. This storm has been over performing down south so let’s see if it does the same down here. Temp down to 24.4*

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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:59 pm

23* with a continuing steady Light Snow here. Ground coated. Intensity should pick up overnight and into daybreak which is when I expect most of the accumulation. Will only take a few hours of moderate to heavy snow to get 3” or 4” on top of whatever else falls.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:25 am

In yonkers tonight. Nice steady light snow easily sticking to all surfaces. 25 degrees and a dusting has accumulated.

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Post by silentwreck Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:38 am

Officially an inch over here in queens! Almost forgot how good this excitement felt lol LFGGG

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:50 am

Got up to let dog out..of course I went out with the ruler....dog was like what is she doing at 3:30 in morning she never comes out with me.😂🤣...we have an inch of snow still lightly snowing and temp at 26*
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Post by silentwreck Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:59 am

Heavier snow moving into the area in the next hour or so

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by 1190ftalt Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:36 am

2 inches of snow, 21 degrees, still snowing at a slow pace,
     Good Luck !JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 6d456110
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Radz Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:45 am

24* light snow 1-1 1/2” maybe by the look of it
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by brownie Tue Jan 16, 2024 5:43 am

1 inch.  Very light snow falling.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by frank 638 Tue Jan 16, 2024 5:51 am

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Img_4910

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:04 am

not much happening yet. Almost an inch in yonkers. About to head home. Radar not looking impressive either. Schools are closed though.


Last edited by 2004blackwrx on Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:14 am; edited 1 time in total

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:14 am

22 degrees, close to two inches and light snow falling.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:15 am

The storm is disorganized and will be healthy once it reaches Gulf of Maine. 3" OTG moderate snow 22.5/22.2. Looking at at least 1" more here before it taints.

It will taint for many mostly due to the lack of H pressure to north and storm lack of consolidation. I would most concerned about freezing rain (ZR) potential with this as the surface cold will hang tough away from immediate coast.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Storm12


Last edited by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:17 am; edited 1 time in total

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by mmanisca Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:15 am

Deer Park
6am 1.5 inches of snow
28 Degrees cloudy.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by docstox12 Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:32 am

heehaw453 wrote:The storm is disorganized and will be healthy once it reaches Gulf of Maine. 3" OTG moderate snow 22.5/22.2. Looking at at least 1" more here before it taints.

It will taint for many mostly due to the lack of H pressure to north and storm lack of consolidation. I would most concerned about freezing rain (ZR) potential with this as the surface cold will hang tough away from immediate coast.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Storm12

I saw that the radar looks like a mess.Looks like you are the jackpot so far heehaw!
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:33 am

All things considered, an impressive accumulation in Long Branch, at the north end of the Jersey Shore. Looks like 3-3.5 inches and now the biggest flakes of the night are falling.

Still, a little bummed that most of it will be summarily washed away by lunchtime, but oh well, that’s life along the coast. Also concerned about the frozen rain that appears to be heading to the 95 corridor and possibly points east.

Be careful out there this morning everyone!

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Post by snowday111 Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:46 am

Many schools have a delayed opening but it seems that’s when the mixed precipitation will be coming in. Should I be concerned about freezing rain if traveling around 9-10 am? Icy roads really scare me. I would much rather drive in snow.

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Post by SkiSeadooJoe Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:56 am

Woke up to 33 degrees and alight mist falling, looks like I got 3 inchesJAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 20240114
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Post by phil155 Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:58 am

Schools here closed for the day, kids will be happy.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:16 am

Doesnt look like much a inch or so (ill have measure when i go out) i guess the SR models did or wont verify around nyc area. In fact LR just barely were met seems. The radar wasnt looking great last night which told me to keep expectations low so not feeling too bad about it. Roads are just slushy not go be a tough commute. Schools arent closed here just a 2 hr delay. Some districts closed the whole day? Did anyone see 4 5 or 6?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:16 am

phil155 wrote:Schools here closed for the day, kids will be happy.
where are they closed? Nyc did not break streak 0.6 is what nws says. Storm looked so good last night. Huge dry slot coming into nyc and northern nj.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:26 am

The southern portions of our area faired well and likely accumulated what was forecasted. The northern areas - let’s say north of I-78, did not overcome the dry air and did not get into the higher snowfall rates. Quite disappointing to be honest, especially when every model had 4”+ at 12z and 00z runs last night. However glad areas down south and along the shore FINALLY got a decent snowfall.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:
phil155 wrote:Schools here closed for the day, kids will be happy.
where are they closed? Nyc did not break streak 0.6 is what nws says. Storm looked so good last night. Huge dry slot coming into nyc and northern nj.


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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 5 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:34 am

Another reason for the underperformance in NNJ was due to subsidence. Basically a wedge of sinking air that shuts off or significantly reduces precip rates. There were 2 bands of 700mb frontogenesis both to the north and south of NNJ which put them in between this area of sinking air. Unfortunately when the storm is a little disorganized the way this one was, these can be common. Even in an organized storm I’ve seen subsidence create a “snow hole” over localized areas.

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