JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Frank_Wx wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:Although some may disagree, I think the NWS does a fairly good job with their forecasts. With that being said, they are calling for the snow tonight to be light and powdery, but changing  to light rain or freezing drizzle mid to late Tuesday morning. This is for NYC/metro area. Here is their initial assessment. It seems they are not as bullish as the predictions here. What do you think?

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240115_am.pdf

The NAM is the ‘warmest’ model. The warmest frame is at 11am when 850mb temps get just above freezing.



By then most of the precip is shutting off for the city. My guess is they’re looking at soundings and finding that surface is warmed due to an east wind off a very warm ocean. I can see stickage be a problem for the coast, including NYC, after 8am tomorrow. But honestly, 2-3” of snow probably would’ve fallen (and stuck) by then

Thank you, Frank. Is the NAM the preferred model for them?

The 18Z NAM is really strengthening this mid-level energy. If this energy consolidates a hair more as it approaches the BM the warming will be less along and SE of the I95. The run as is does bring the warmer air to the I95 for a bit. That's why having a strong H to the north to keep the winds NE is important as storm approaches which this does not.

Monroe Twp. (Middlesex County) already called for a 2 hour delay tomorrow.

Freind near Dover Delaware reports light snow with grassy areas getting covered.

18Z nam was colder for the coast. Max temps on LI besides the forks don't get above 32 and only around 32 for an hour or so. Precip was sleet/zr for a short time. not plain rain.

NWS expanded the WWA to include the entire island. Now forecasting 2-4"

18Z nam was colder for the coast. Max temps on LI besides the forks don't get above 32 and only around 32 for an hour or so. Precip was sleet/zr for a short time. not plain rain.

NWS expanded the WWA to include the entire island. Now forecasting 2-4"

Mount Holly NWS latest thinking... Seems pretty reasonable for now.

Wow that's a significant increase from this morning. That would probably put me in WSW category as opposed to Advisory level snows.

billg315 wrote:Wow that's a significant increase from this morning. That would probably put me in WSW category as opposed to Advisory level snows.

Took the words right off my keyboard Bill. 3-4” is twice as good as “an inch or two”.

aiannone wrote:18Z nam was colder for the coast. Max temps on LI besides the forks don't get above 32 and only around 32 for an hour or so. Precip was sleet/zr for a short time. not plain rain.

NWS expanded the WWA to include the entire island. Now forecasting 2-4"

NW trend are real and the precip is enhanced by the anomalous warm ocean waters. Love when it trends positive as game time approaches and keeps going.

18Z GFS solid.

Upton joins the party

Nice to finally have a storm trend stronger at the end as this one seems to be doing. In terms of impacts I always thought this was closer to a 4" storm than 1 or 2" storm, and not sure 5 or 6" is any more impactful than 4", but I do think it impacts public perception and therefore "readiness" to deal with the AM rush, so I think raising the forecast to 4-6" probably is a good thing.

NW trend may mean more mixing for the coasties.

Can't say I love the "light glaze" in my WWA...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
Eastern Essex Western Essex Eastern Union Western Union Hudson
ISSUED: 3:30 PM JAN. 15, 2024 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light
glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

Don't see mix in NNJ. Aloft way cold.

RAP just does that....RAP model just goes bezerk. A said a hip a hop you don't stop....

And wout a NW trend you have ugatz peeps.

amugs wrote:Don't see mix in NNJ. Aloft way cold.

RAP just does that....RAP model just goes bezerk. A said a hip a hop you don't stop....

i am with you on this well my area they’re calling 2 – 4 inches of snow which is not bad I’ll take it but if I see a 5 inch sign me up

NJ state employees have a two hour delay for tomorrow

snowday111 wrote:NJ state employees have a two hour delay for tomorrow  

My holly has my area for 3-5inches, I will take a nice powdery few inches

Yeah!!!! its snowing 27* no wind...fine snow that is so far is starting to accumulate on cars and deck!

Light snow 24/19 beautiful thing when it snows with cold surfaces...

May your streets be white! Good luck everyone! Any snow is good snow.

26* with steady Light Snow underway.

Euro/GFS did horribly with the QPF from this storm. Not that it's over but mesos always had low closer to coast and more qpf.

Anyone seeing snow yet in the westchester area? Seems like virga for now, humidity is in the 40s

Snowing lightly. Everything is getting covered. Finalllllllyyyyy !!!!