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JAN 16th Arctic Front I

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by GreyBeard Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:14 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:Although some may disagree, I think the NWS does a fairly good job with their forecasts. With that being said, they are calling for the snow tonight to be light and powdery, but changing  to light rain or freezing drizzle mid to late Tuesday morning. This is for NYC/metro area. Here is their initial assessment. It seems they are not as bullish as the predictions here. What do you think?

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240115_am.pdf

The NAM is the ‘warmest’ model. The warmest frame is at 11am when 850mb temps get just above freezing.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Namconus_T850_neus_30

By then most of the precip is shutting off for the city. My guess is they’re looking at soundings and finding that surface is warmed due to an east wind off a very warm ocean. I can see stickage be a problem for the coast, including NYC, after 8am tomorrow. But honestly, 2-3” of snow probably would’ve fallen (and stuck) by then

Thank you, Frank. Is the NAM the preferred model for them?

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:21 pm

The 18Z NAM is really strengthening this mid-level energy. If this energy consolidates a hair more as it approaches the BM the warming will be less along and SE of the I95. The run as is does bring the warmer air to the I95 for a bit. That's why having a strong H to the north to keep the winds NE is important as storm approaches which this does not.


JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Nam12k10

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by snowday111 Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:34 pm

Monroe Twp. (Middlesex County) already called for a 2 hour delay tomorrow.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by docstox12 Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:44 pm

Freind near Dover Delaware reports light snow with grassy areas getting covered.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by aiannone Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:49 pm

18Z nam was colder for the coast. Max temps on LI besides the forks don't get above 32 and only around 32 for an hour or so. Precip was sleet/zr for a short time. not plain rain.

NWS expanded the WWA to include the entire island. Now forecasting 2-4"

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by aiannone Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:49 pm

18Z nam was colder for the coast. Max temps on LI besides the forks don't get above 32 and only around 32 for an hour or so. Precip was sleet/zr for a short time. not plain rain.

NWS expanded the WWA to include the entire island. Now forecasting 2-4"

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:05 pm

Mount Holly NWS latest thinking... Seems pretty reasonable for now.



JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Mtholl15

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by billg315 Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:39 pm

Wow that's a significant increase from this morning. That would probably put me in WSW category as opposed to Advisory level snows.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:43 pm

billg315 wrote:Wow that's a significant increase from this morning. That would probably put me in WSW category as opposed to Advisory level snows.

Took the words right off my keyboard Bill. 3-4” is twice as good as “an inch or two”.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:45 pm

aiannone wrote:18Z nam was colder for the coast. Max temps on LI besides the forks don't get above 32 and only around 32 for an hour or so. Precip was sleet/zr for a short time. not plain rain.

NWS expanded the WWA to include the entire island. Now forecasting 2-4"

NW trend are real and the precip is enhanced by the anomalous warm ocean waters. Love when it trends positive as game time approaches and keeps going.


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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:49 pm

18Z GFS solid.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 18zgfs13

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:20 pm

Upton joins the party

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 GD6jcx1XUAAEGSx?format=jpg&name=900x900

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 1705482000-xe5NvTFJUSI


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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by billg315 Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:24 pm

Nice to finally have a storm trend stronger at the end as this one seems to be doing. In terms of impacts I always thought this was closer to a 4" storm than 1 or 2" storm, and not sure 5 or 6" is any more impactful than 4", but I do think it impacts public perception and therefore "readiness" to deal with the AM rush, so I think raising the forecast to 4-6" probably is a good thing.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by essexcountypete Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:42 pm

NW trend may mean more mixing for the coasties.

Can't say I love the "light glaze" in my WWA...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
Eastern Essex Western Essex Eastern Union Western Union Hudson
ISSUED: 3:30 PM JAN. 15, 2024 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light
glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:31 pm

Don't see mix in NNJ. Aloft way cold.

RAP just does that....RAP model just goes bezerk. A said a hip a hop you don't stop....
JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Snku_a10

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by amugs Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:32 pm

And wout a NW trend you have ugatz peeps.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:44 pm

amugs wrote:Don't see mix in NNJ. Aloft way cold.

RAP just does that....RAP model just goes bezerk. A said a hip a hop you don't stop....
JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Snku_a10
i am with you on this well my area they’re calling 2 – 4 inches of snow which is not bad I’ll take it but if I see a 5 inch sign me up

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by snowday111 Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:10 pm

NJ state employees have a two hour delay for tomorrow

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by phil155 Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:19 pm

snowday111 wrote:NJ state employees have a two hour delay for tomorrow  


My holly has my area for 3-5inches, I will take a nice powdery few inches

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:59 pm

Yeah!!!! its snowing 27* no wind...fine snow that is so far is starting to accumulate on cars and deck!
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:01 pm

Light snow 24/19 beautiful thing when it snows with cold surfaces...

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:06 pm

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Giphy.webp?cid=6c09b95288p1271x4jyn29651p2eyez2qsm3chiypjezggyb&ep=v1_internal_gif_by_id&rid=giphy

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Inxr1Kphla_h

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:26 pm

May your streets be white! Good luck everyone! Any snow is good snow.


JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Img_7410

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by billg315 Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:31 pm

26* with steady Light Snow underway.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 3 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:32 pm

Euro/GFS did horribly with the QPF from this storm. Not that it's over but mesos always had low closer to coast and more qpf.
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Post by lglickman1 Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:39 pm

Anyone seeing snow yet in the westchester area? Seems like virga for now, humidity is in the 40s

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Post by silentwreck Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:46 pm

Snowing lightly. Everything is getting covered. Finalllllllyyyyy !!!!

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