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JAN 16th Arctic Front I

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:48 am

Final call snow map. Snow begins late tonight and moderate rates will last through 7-8am tomorrow morning. After 8am we're likely seeing it clear up with some wrap around precip (which could fall as rain along immediate coast) falling around Noon.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Fincal-call-jan-16th


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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by phil155 Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:12 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Final call snow map. Snow begins late tonight and moderate rates will last through 7-8am tomorrow morning. After 8am we're likely seeing it clear up with some wrap around precip (which could fall as rain along immediate coast) falling around Noon.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Fincal-call-jan-16th


Should be a nice little event

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:16 am

23.2/6.7 that is one nice overrunning surface to snow on. I'm pretty stoked as it's been a while.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Irish Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:21 am

They are now calling for 2-6 inches in my area. 1-3 tonight and 1-3 overnight into tomorrow morning.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:41 am

Put those 6 inch thoughts deep down in the recesses of your brain, unlikely anywhere.

Be happy with a general 2-4 which most should get as of now. Someone will probably surprise with 4+ but hard to say where. Franks map looks solid.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:48 am

12Z GFS is coming around.  

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 12zgfs12

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:48 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Put those 6 inch thoughts deep down in the recesses of your brain, unlikely anywhere.

Be happy with a general 2-4 which most should get as of now. Someone will probably surprise with 4+ but hard to say where. Franks map looks solid.

I'm.happy if we get anything more than just mood flakes!!
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I think NYC officially breaks their 2 year streak of no snow accumulation on Tuesday.

Just to clarify it's a two year streak of not having 1.0 inch of snow any one day and it's only Central Park. JFK and LGA both have had days exceeding one inch in that time period. Suspiciously Central Park had two consecutive days of 0.9 inches last year (really). Was really one storm with 1.8 but the media likes to go with this story so what can you do. I'm really hoping they just put an end to this so called steak tonight so NYC metro can move on from this media inspired narrative.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:52 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Put those 6 inch thoughts deep down in the recesses of your brain, unlikely anywhere.

Be happy with a general 2-4 which most should get as of now. Someone will probably surprise with 4+ but hard to say where. Franks map looks solid.

If 6" occurs it will be localized and NW I95.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:08 am

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is coming around.  

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 12zgfs12

Like it always does near the event.
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:12 am

heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is coming around.  

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 12zgfs12

A lot of credit to the NAM and RGEM with this event. Assuming it turns out this way, they were the first and only models to show how the dynamics aloft will create heavier snow rates for a localized area. It appears to be slightly N&W of I-95 but we’ll see. Even with the surface low well off the coast, the precip field is expansive all the way into upstate NY.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think NYC officially breaks their 2 year streak of no snow accumulation on Tuesday.

Just to clarify it's a two year streak of not having 1.0 inch of snow any one day and it's only Central Park. JFK and LGA both have had days exceeding one inch in that time period. Suspiciously Central Park had two consecutive days of 0.9 inches last year (really). Was really one storm with 1.8 but the media likes to go with this story so what can you do. I'm really hoping they just put an end to this so called steak tonight so NYC metro can move on from this media inspired narrative.

Yes thanks for clarifying.

Zookeeper and their 0.9” is toying with us. Anything to generate media hype!

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:07 pm

Euro coming in snowier for NYC metro!!!
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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by GreyBeard Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:19 pm

Although some may disagree, I think the NWS does a fairly good job with their forecasts. With that being said, they are calling for the snow tonight to be light and powdery, but changing  to light rain or freezing drizzle mid to late Tuesday morning. This is for NYC/metro area. Here is their initial assessment. It seems they are not as bullish as the predictions here. What do you think?

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240115_am.pdf

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:19 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Euro coming in snowier for NYC metro!!!

Last to the party. Pathetic

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:20 pm

Euro upped snow amounts by 1-2” in some places

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Img_6827

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:20 pm

Euro is getting more aggressive with the coastal Low.  Any quicker strengthening of that and you could be talking 4-6" type deal.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Euro148

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:21 pm

It comes in streaks folks sometimes... Goes both ways.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:22 pm

Globals last to catch onto this one

The trends suggests there will be a 4-6” swath (likely the dark blue shade of my map)

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by SENJsnowman Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:27 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Euro is getting more aggressive with the coastal Low.  Any quicker strengthening of that and you could be talking 4-6" type deal.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Euro148

Looks lovely! Verbatim would be 3.5”-4” for my back yard up here in Long Branch (Monmouth Cty, exit 105 GSP) and also for my kids back yard in Bayville (Ocean Cty, exit 80 GSP). That would be a total win-win for the SENJ fam cheers cheers . Bring it home Euro!

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by dsix85 Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:30 pm

Lightning strikes outside of Richmond, this system looks stronger than advertised

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by emokid51783 Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:42 pm

dsix85 wrote:Lightning strikes outside of Richmond, this system looks stronger than advertised

Definitely 'powering up' the storm and board!

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:56 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Although some may disagree, I think the NWS does a fairly good job with their forecasts. With that being said, they are calling for the snow tonight to be light and powdery, but changing  to light rain or freezing drizzle mid to late Tuesday morning. This is for NYC/metro area. Here is their initial assessment. It seems they are not as bullish as the predictions here. What do you think?

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240115_am.pdf

The NAM is the ‘warmest’ model. The warmest frame is at 11am when 850mb temps get just above freezing.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Namconus_T850_neus_30

By then most of the precip is shutting off for the city. My guess is they’re looking at soundings and finding that surface is warmed due to an east wind off a very warm ocean. I can see stickage be a problem for the coast, including NYC, after 8am tomorrow. But honestly, 2-3” of snow probably would’ve fallen (and stuck) by then

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by MikeA Mon Jan 15, 2024 2:36 pm

Some flakes starting to fly already in Hunterdon County. This seems much earlier than expected. Hopefully a good sign of things to come.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:04 pm

25.8/10 I've had flurries in EPA. It's usually a good sign when the moisture makes it to the surface in a very dry air mass. Indicative of instability.

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by GreyBeard Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:14 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
GreyBeard wrote:Although some may disagree, I think the NWS does a fairly good job with their forecasts. With that being said, they are calling for the snow tonight to be light and powdery, but changing  to light rain or freezing drizzle mid to late Tuesday morning. This is for NYC/metro area. Here is their initial assessment. It seems they are not as bullish as the predictions here. What do you think?

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240115_am.pdf

The NAM is the ‘warmest’ model. The warmest frame is at 11am when 850mb temps get just above freezing.

JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Namconus_T850_neus_30

By then most of the precip is shutting off for the city. My guess is they’re looking at soundings and finding that surface is warmed due to an east wind off a very warm ocean. I can see stickage be a problem for the coast, including NYC, after 8am tomorrow. But honestly, 2-3” of snow probably would’ve fallen (and stuck) by then

Thank you, Frank. Is the NAM the preferred model for them?

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:21 pm

The 18Z NAM is really strengthening this mid-level energy. If this energy consolidates a hair more as it approaches the BM the warming will be less along and SE of the I95. The run as is does bring the warmer air to the I95 for a bit. That's why having a strong H to the north to keep the winds NE is important as storm approaches which this does not.


JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Nam12k10

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JAN 16th Arctic Front I - Page 2 Empty Re: JAN 16th Arctic Front I

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