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BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0

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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:43 pm

I'm just about ready to put a fork in this event. Now there calling for rain on my local weather scan channel for Wed.  😢 
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:52 pm

Oh boy, Euro is trending southhhhhh
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Post by SNOW MAN Sun Mar 09, 2014 2:56 pm

Bernie has a new video out about this event on Accu-wx
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:10 pm

How far south was the EURO?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:15 pm

So far, things are still on track for rain to break out Wednesday afternoon and continue into the early evening, with a changeover to snow around 11pm Wednesday. Probably half an inch of rain, maybe less, to 1-3 inches of snow. That's my forecast right now. We'll see if this trends south / colder in the upcoming days leading up to Wednesday.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:38 pm

Looking over things again today, I can see why this is mainly a rain event for our area as of now on the models.

BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Gfs_z500a_namer_14

The east-based blocking is a little too far east for us and as a result the PV stays further north. Maybe over the next couple days we see the PV trending southward again which will track the storm further south as well. This was the case with the last storm, except we missed out completely. If the PV turns out to be further south than modeled this time around, we would benefit.

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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:55 pm

wow did any see the 18z nam. has an intense storm tracking south of area and blowing up. temps crash as it hits the coast. the PV is further south on this run. a lot of prcip. but then again it's the nam in the long range. trough looks nice at H5 just need the cold air to get in as quickly as possible
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Post by pdubz Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:04 pm

Really? NAM snowmap shows it further north
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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:05 pm

Last nights 00z and todays 12z on all three models have very similar tracks between 10-15miles N of LI to about 10-15miles S of LI.  
BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 <a href=BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Tracks10" />

The timing of the system on the CMC and GFS are very similar, whereas, the Euro is about 6-8hrs slower.  Here is 00z Thursday for all three models (GFS, CMC, Euro).  
BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 <a href=BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Gfs_0011" />
BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 <a href=BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Cmc_0011" />
BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 <a href=BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Euro_011" />

They all are warm at the start and usher in cold behind it.  Rain to snow.  For the moment I am not very excited for much of a change over to snow at all for I-95 and points S and east along the coast and LI before the heaviest precip moves out.  Interior sections north and west of I 95 have a chance here to see decent accumulating snow as is modeled by todays runs however.

All this being said there is still a looooooong way to go.  I am by no means ruling out accum snow all the way to the coast at this point..just seems unlikely based on whats currently modeled.  The GFS and CMC ensemble means today are south of their operational runs.  The Euro Ensembles look to be about on par with its operational.  Lets see if the tracks above shift further N or S or stay about the same by Tuesday morning.  You will not see a snow amount from this guy until no earlier than after Monday eve 00z runs...so Tues. morn.  I've learned my lesson. tongue  tongue   
BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 <a href=BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Gfs_0010" />
BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 <a href=BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Cmc_0010" />
BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 <a href=BLOG: March 12th-13th Potential Snowstorm, Discussion Thread 1.0 - Page 6 Euro_010" />

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:37 pm

from upton....LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW THROUGH TUE...BUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH PAC NW ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE AND
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BY MIDWEEK. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS
SYSTEM...THE DETAILS REMAIN IN QUESTION.

SUNYSB ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THIS PAC ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
EARLY MON MORNING. A DEEPER SOLN WOULD LEND TO MORE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THESE DIFFERENCES COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST AS A SOLN FURTHER OFFSHORE WOULD LIKELY BE COLDER.




HOPING THAT ONCE THE PAC ENERGY MOVES ONSHORE TOMORROW WHERE THERE
IS BETTER DATA SAMPLING...SOLNS WILL CONVERGE FURTHER AND
CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE.
we should have better idea of track after tom 12z runs
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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:41 pm

@pdubz wrote:Really? NAM snowmap shows it further north

we shouldn't look at snow map. we need to look at intensity and track. if the 18z nam were to verify there would be more snow due to dynamic cooling. models don't pick up on this well enough.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:51 pm

With 984 mb assuming that plays out this would be a pretty big wind event like high wind warning criteria no?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:54 pm

Is there any possibility with such a strong low being forecast that snow could be at the coast for most or all of the event or is this totally off the table?  Funny thing is (and I know this is for long range forum) my local forecast has more confidence in all snow for 18th than this storm, at 70% already!
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Post by amugs Sun Mar 09, 2014 8:18 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Is there any possibility with such a strong low being forecast that snow could be at the coast for most or all of the event or is this totally off the table?  Funny thing is (and I know this is for long range forum) my local forecast has more confidence in all snow for 18th than this storm, at 70% already!

Jman - 18th is too far out.  They had this event as all snow last week as well.

Here is the forecasted thermal profile - temps - jesus is this going  to be tight

N&W from this will be very interesting if is comes to fruition - tomorrow we will know a hell of a lot more - the usual 60-48 hours before the storm - the pattern of the winter so most options are on the table IMO but trending S

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=286v95k&s=8


Last edited by amugs on Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by sroc4 Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Is there any possibility with such a strong low being forecast that snow could be at the coast for most or all of the event or is this totally off the table?  Funny thing is (and I know this is for long range forum) my local forecast has more confidence in all snow for 18th than this storm, at 70% already!
All snow at the coast is unlikely at the moment, but is def not off the table. JMan. If you go back a few posts you can see where the approx tracks have trended to thus far.  If that's the track this sucker takes it will be mostly rain for the coast. Keep in mind that is not set in stone.  The timing and intensity of the phase is still not set in stone. Heck If the western ridge trends more amped and the northern stream digs in just a little further south the triple phase soln still could happen.  The Euro is not all that far off from the third piece of southern energy interacting with the other two. At the moment I think the triple phase is least likely to happen but still possible. Bottom line is as of now this storm is modeled to come in like the map I drew above, but significant trends are still possible as the energy will just be making it ashore tomorrow morning. Look for changes to the track by the 12z and 00z tomorrow if they are going to occur since much better data will be plugged into the models.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:13 pm

ok kool soroc, so its not a lost cause but not excellent chances either.  However I certainly have seen stranger changes happen.  Will keep checking in for updates.  A triple phase would be amazing, but as you said unlikely.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:23 pm

With a track as currently progged snow at the coast is next to near impossible. Could be a 940 low and it would still be rain with that track. I see how the 850s crash after the storm goes to the east but as usual other levels are slow to follow and I would not bank on seeing any backend snow if the track remains. Of course a jump to the south would mean a more wintry scenario but this setup will not breed snow on the coastal plain, especially not in mid March.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:38 pm

NAM is much further south and colder. Is this a trend?

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 10:42 pm

Frank I was just going to post this myself I saw it came much further south.  Lets hope it is!
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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:00 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:NAM is much further south and colder. Is this a trend?

yes nice run. I do not have snow map but hv does real well on this run. it looks like slower west to east progression of storm and the ns s/w is stronger and the phase happens later causing colder air to filter in. it looks to move due east from wv to Delmarva and then ne. I think we want the storm to slow a little more to allow colder air to filter in.
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Post by algae888 Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:19 pm

pv is further south and has more interaction with system. the pv orientation is more north to south on the 00z compared to flatter and more east to west on 18z. would love to see other models trend this way. remember models underplayed pv in the last storm a lot.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:52 pm

00z came out late for some reason but its also a hair south, praying this is a trend and will go even more tomorrow when this thing comes on shore.  We were tricked last time maybe its doing the opposite trick this time in our favor : )
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Mar 09, 2014 11:54 pm

Or the cold air came south because the snow access def shifted south by quite a bit.  Lemme know when we can start posting snow maps.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:00 am

00z GFS is trending colder as well. Not gets 3 inches of snow into NYC after the rain

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 10, 2014 12:00 am

@jmanley32 wrote:00z came out late for some reason but its also a hair south, praying this is a trend and will go even more tomorrow when this thing comes on shore.  We were tricked last time maybe its doing the opposite trick this time in our favor : )

It is the time change. Lol.

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