Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[amugs]

http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_4271_f10/readings/week_12_13_francis_et_al_2009GL037274.pdfWinter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent


Read this article - interesting about the retraction of arctic sea ice and how it correlates to the NAO modulation.

[jmanley32]

Take a look at my tropics post, its long range too so thought I would mention it here too. Something could be brewing in 2nd or 3rd week October in Caribbean and moving north. Before it was showing the entitiy every GFS run at 384 hrs but now it stated at 264 on 12z GFS, not sure what this fall pattern will do with it IF it were to develop but we do know the GFS has had a terrible time with tropics this year in developing non existant storms but I am keeping a eye on the runs anyways.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm not that confident in the tropics at this point, but one thing I am beginning to see is a possible cold blast with high's only in the 50's possible by mid to end month.

[jmanley32]

Well I mentioned that Frank, GFS had it been right US would have seen multiple landfalls of big hurricanes this year. Its really had issues with the tropics this year. Thats nice weather : ) Def wouldnt support tropical systems to make it up here but still have to watch for the transition of something into sub or hybrid in October.

[sroc4]

http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_4271_f10/readings/week_12_13_francis_et_al_2009GL037274.pdfWinter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent


Read this article - interesting about the retraction of arctic sea ice and how it correlates to the NAO modulation.

That waqs a great read; however, I am not convinced at the true clear cut linear relation ship with the sea ice of the summer and the NAO.  I would like to see how many of the years in the past few decades that had below average summer sea ice content where the avg NAO value for the following winter was neg vs positive.  I would also like to look at the correlations between those years below avg summer sea ice, the avg NAO for the following winter, and the status of the ENSO. ie: el nino vs la nina vs neutral ENSO years.  Here is a cool interactive link so you can compare sea ice levels for diff years etc.  
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[amugs]

http://www.colorado.edu/geography/class_homepages/geog_4271_f10/readings/week_12_13_francis_et_al_2009GL037274.pdfWinter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent


Read this article - interesting about the retraction of arctic sea ice and how it correlates to the NAO modulation.

That waqs a great read; however, I am not convinced at the true clear cut linear relation ship with the sea ice of the summer and the NAO.  I would like to see how many of the years in the past few decades that had below average summer sea ice content where the avg NAO value for the following winter was neg vs positive.   I would also like to look at the correlations between those years below avg summer sea ice, the avg NAO for the following winter, and the status of the ENSO.  ie: el nino vs la nina vs neutral ENSO years.  Here is a cool interactive link so you can compare sea ice levels for diff years etc.  
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Scott,

Good link you posted and yes there are a few questions if not a few more than a few to this correlation but I found it interesting. hey, it is like many other "weather" aspects - we have data from ?? 1981 til present on certain aspect of the atmosphere and other just in the last 15 years - when thinking about the whole we have not even scratched teh surface of this mega - weather forum on such topics of our weather - there are so many variables. We'll see what happens but I am glad you liked it and hope others do as well cause it is interesting.

Mugs

[Frank_Wx]

A true blast of Fall-like weather looks imminent this weekend as an impressive trough works its way into the area. On Saturday, a cold front will pass through bringing some showers then behind it cooler air will works its way in. Looking at low's Saturday night into the upper 40's to low 50's, with high's on Sunday only in the low to mid 60's.

EURO for Sunday afternoon:



EURO for Sunday night:



Since this is still about 1 week away, I would not be surprised to see models get a little warmer by then, but I do not think we'll get out of the 60's on Sunday.

[HectorO]

A true blast of Fall-like weather looks imminent this weekend as an impressive trough works its way into the area. On Saturday, a cold front will pass through bringing some showers then behind it cooler air will works its way in. Looking at low's Saturday night into the upper 40's to low 50's, with high's on Sunday only in the low to mid 60's.

EURO for Sunday afternoon:



EURO for Sunday night:



Since this is still about 1 week away, I would not be surprised to see models get a little warmer by then, but I do not think we'll get out of the 60's on Sunday.

How come in the long run the temps get warmer as it approaches and not cooler from the original predicted temp?

[amugs]

Frank,

Maps not showing - FYI kid. Thanks for the update.

Mugs

[Frank_Wx]

Frank,

Maps not showing - FYI kid. Thanks for the update.

Mugs

Dang, I think WeatherBell disallows copy and paste of their images. So I have to put them on an imagehost. No problem.

[jmanley32]

Not true frank I host them through the copy and paste way. But first I save the images to my desktop and choose them from there.

[Frank_Wx]

Not true frank I host them through the copy and paste way.  But first I save the images to my desktop and choose them from there.

Yea, I do not do that cause I'm too lazy.

[jmanley32]

LOL, its not that hard, and for the amount of time you put in here with work and school your not lazy to me at all!

[amugs]

AO to go very low for the month of October - question - how will this translate going forward??

[nutleyblizzard]

AO to go very low for the month of October - question - how will this translate going forward??

If you go back and look at the records since 2002, whatever the dominate signal of the NAO/AO is in October, usually translates to the upcoming winter. Trend is your friend.

[amugs]

AO to go very low for the month of October - question - how will this translate going forward??

If you go back and look at the records since 2002, whatever the dominate signal of the NAO/AO is in October, usually translates to the upcoming winter. Trend is your friend.

Thanks for the info - Nice trend and hope it bombs like it is progged to and the NAO goes with it along with the -EPO and +PNA - then snow weenie's will rejoice and I shall keep my crown !!

[nutleyblizzard]

I plan on going to the Home Depot this week to purchase an 800 dollar snowblower. I'm 48 now, and as much as a snow weenie that I am, my back can't take any more shoveling. I hope I don't put a hex on the whole damn winter.

[Frank_Wx]

I am still not a believer that October has a heavy weight on how the winter transpires. The +ENSO event is still coming around, so we won't be in an El Niño pattern in October. Further, November is probably the month that carries the heaviest weight. To me, October means very little and I have not used it in my winter outlooks the last few years and I still seem to come out alright.

[Dunnzoo]

I plan on going to the Home Depot this week to purchase an 800 dollar snowblower. I'm 48 now, and as much as a snow weenie that I am, my back can't take any more shoveling. I hope I don't put a hex on the whole damn winter.

uh oh ...kiss of death!

[nutleyblizzard]

I am still not a believer that October has a heavy weight on how the winter transpires. The +ENSO event is still coming around, so we won't be in an El Niño pattern in October. Further, November is probably the month that carries the heaviest weight. To me, October means very little and I have not used it in my winter outlooks the last few years and I still seem to come out alright.

Your point is valid Frank. I'm only throwing stats around. Despite whatever the forecasters say, I normally wait all the way to Thanksgiving to see where we stand as far as pattern regimes go.

[algae888]

October to me looks like we will below normal. I think 1-2* on ave. we will have a trough over the n/e for most of the month plus a very low ao and a -nao. the first half looks about ave to slightly below ave. and then I am calling for a very cool 2nd half of the month. as for nov onward. any thing is possible at this point. I've seen where we are cold and snowy late nov. into dec and end up with a mild winter and I've seen the opposite also where winter doesn't start until January. what I think will happen at this point is the continuing -epo pattern that we have been in since last winter. the epo will shift back and forth as it has done recently so mild spells followed by cool shots. over all about ave for nov and dec. the wild card being the nao. as far as the enso (el nino) I don't think that will kick in until January or February so my thinking at this point is that we have a better chance for snow the second half of winter. the signs are there for an active and exciting winter. can't wait to see how it all turns out.

[algae888]

frank the cold shot coming on sunday looks to be really short lived. we should rebound to near normal by Monday and remain there most of next week. I agree with you that around the 12-15th we will see a strong sure of cold air where temps do not get out of the 40's for highs and temps look qiute cool for 2nd half of month.

[algae888]

I do not know why I am having trouble posting images but this is from 12z gfs 500mb map hour 300. we have a strong ridge in the west a block over western atlantic and a very deep trough over east coast that goes all the way down to south fla. do not know if this will happen but it sure looks cold! every one close your eyes and just imagine this map in winter.lol

[amugs]

Analogs are good points of reference but never etched in stone. November is usually the month that give us the signals for winter so I agree Frank but Al there have been a few where things have flipped - Nov cold and mild winter or Nov warm and cold winters - I was just pointing out that the AO is tanking and the NAO is going negative for this month. The -EPO will be there and to me this is a really long stretch for this - ENSO will play a factor as will SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) low cycle of solar activity that has and still is occurring and other variables - sea ice extent and snow pack in the North Country. So, in my heart i would love the set up i posted above and I agree Al it will be an exciting winter but patience is required until the time comes.

i can't tell you how many people and students keep asking me about this winter everyday - if I had a dollar for each one I'd retire.

Latest ENSO readings a couple of weeks back were +.5 so it is gearing up - it was suppose to happen this spring so I personally don't mind it happening for a couple of months and being in the +1 (+) range (1.0 - 1..

[amugs]

I do not know why I am having trouble posting images but this is from 12z gfs 500mb map hour 300. we have a strong ridge in the west a block over western atlantic and a very deep trough over east coast that goes all the way down to south fla. do not know if this will happen but it sure looks cold! every one close your eyes and just imagine this map in winter.lol

Bring it on Al bring it on!!

Al- copy the url address

Click on the Insert an image icon

Paste the url into the Insert an Image Url line

Hit Send

If it doesn't work you can always copy the image and paste it into a word doc and save

then click on the host an image and upload that file.

Also,some sites do not allow the maps to be copied

[amugs]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht.gif



BIZENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGAAAAAA!!!! Got it for you  Algae!!


Right click and choose Copy Image URL!!

Then past this into the Insert an Image Icon URL!

[jmanley32]

LOL mugs is no better at posting images jk, anyways I thought it was interesting that the GFS lost the caribbean system for 14th hitting FL yesterday for a few runs completely to only bring it back today at 12z. Also the CMC went haywire in the central atlantic but if you take your eyes off that mumbo jumbo and look at 240 hrs in the deep caribbean there is a 1008mb low starting as the GFS also at 240hrs has a 1008mb low which eventually develops and moves pretty much due north like sandy and ends at 384 on southern tip of eastern FL. Now I do not know miuch about models losing things and bringing them back but wouldn't this be a possible sign that its something to watch coming into the 10 day range? Yes still far out but not 16 days.

Also,mugs, do you think it makes sense to just post on this here in long range when it is long range or would you prefer I continue in the tropics section? After all for us, if this storm did affect us mid-late october it would likely not be fully tropical like sandy was so it technically wouldnt belong in tropics section.

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