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*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:21 pm

Well thats a big cvhange from last nights disco, thanks I was just about to go read it myself. They edging toward a storm senario. They must have stance in the GFS today.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:49 pm

Mets2695 wrote:I'll be on for tonight's 0z runs and will chime in to look at 18z runs during class/dinner. Hope you all will be around tonight!

Alex,

how is it going up there kid? Are you loving LSC?? The gentlemen (my ol' student) who is a met by degree Scott says hello and was asking about you.

I will not be up for the 00Z runs but the 6Z runs tomorrow morning yes - only on a day off or if I am super charged up before a storm do I stay up that late. You youngins' can carry the torch for the graveyard shift! Laughing Laughing

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:59 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah Al, same here lol, I bet that changes, of course the pros are not going to say anything till its rock solid.

They ain't touchin' this one with a 10' pole until Thursday night or Friday morning after the 6z runs (GFS, EURO, CMC)- if they blow it then the rest of the winter forecasts for them are at stake with our over hyped public!

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:02 pm

Well that would seem irresponsible too giving the public less than a days notice if it is a big storm.
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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:16 pm

Lee Goldberg mentioned the rain ending as wet snow for the NYC area with more snow north....

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:24 pm

I saw the forecast he is being cautious too. Went by euro with comment about it staying offshore. I'd say they should start talking Thursday if it continues to be a threat by then.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:50 pm

No surprise 18z doesn't have the phase early enough however it has the northern and southern parts but basically it all misses everyone except maybe some light stuff. If mugs is right the 00z should shed different light.
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Post by Sunflowers138 Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:09 pm

When does the 00z run?

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:19 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I saw the forecast he is being cautious too. Went by euro with comment about it staying offshore. I'd say they should start talking Thursday if it continues to be a threat by then.
Always will be have faith in that crew they know their weather and for him to mention this far out is saying something - the h5 pattern is there just need the ingredients for a millerB phase = timing. The big ingredient. 

The models do not show the uber or Davis straight block well - did not all last winter long sooo... We wait and the friggin' 18z run my god could it be any more hypocritical of what it showed at 12z today? Only time will tell.

Back to my home made cannolli filing !! YUM!What a Face

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Post by Math23x7 Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:11 pm

Frank, how about a live chat for the 0Z GFS tonight. Smile

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:27 pm

@amugs wrote:SICK - HOLY  HANNA's Banna' sthe ste up is something - huge PNA spike - Davis/Uber straight  block - Momma Mia  on the set up like I said before I like the set up.

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DOC, CP and SNOW - this delivers as progged - I keep the king king

Teh Ultimate KOD by me - hahaha!!

Mugs:

If this pans out your king for life. I just hope if it does I lose the rest of my leaves on my trees by Saturday. I lost 4 trees in he October 2011 storm and I don't want a repeat. Of course that was 16 inches of snow, I don't think we're talking anything like that.

Yet.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:03 pm

With these cut off lows showing up on the models lately, you kind of get the feeling we are going to have a lot of nail biting model watching this winter.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:08 pm

CP, if it pans out the HV will rock and now I'm here!

Wouldn't worry about KOD, Mugsy, this is a 30 to 1 shot right now, must phase perfectly for snow inland.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:34 pm

True Doc but we've seen these two times in the last four years in this time period.

Oct 29 2011 we saw 16 inches in my back yard, 3-5 in NYC
Nov 6 2012 5-10 inches in NYC just a few days after superstorm Sandy.

I'm thinking the odds are higher but still not in our favor.
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Post by mako460 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:45 pm

we should all be happy that we have something to track. who the hell knows what will happen in the next 72 hours, as much as we would like to know that we can figure it out. Let's follow the script and watch each model run and get our hopes up and then come crashing down only to be lifted again by the next model run. How often do we get to do this in October? Hopefully this continues until March.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:47 pm

Hey CP and doc, I know this is nail biting and I am inclined to think we actually have a fairly good chance at this happening, or something in the realm. More than one model and more than one run of each has shown a WCS, but also a BCS (depending on if you want a storm or not). And yes 16 inches would take trees down but even down here in Yonkers where we had about 6 inches a ton of trees came down or branches, it was a mess, so I do not think that the amount of snowfall has a lot to do with the tree damage as a leaf can only hold so much snow and i doubt very much 16 inches accumulated on each leaf lol. I think its even higher than 30:1 that the leaves fall off by Saturday sorry, not happening. LOL, sorry but I had to throw that in there. Get your clippers out and get out there! lol. Just have to keep watching.
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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:53 pm

Why is the clock an hour ahead on this site here?
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:55 pm

OMG mako you made me exhausted just reading that lol, thinking of all the sleepless nights last year, yes there are letdowns but when they hit they hit!
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:55 pm

Mets you have to set your time zone in preferences.
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:59 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Why is the clock an hour ahead on this site here?

Same thing happened to me Al. Go to Profile and Preferences and scroll to the bottom of the screen to fix the time zone. Jman I know you mentioned this but did the same thing happen to you?

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:59 pm

Yes earlier today, it was odd like the site did it to a lot of people.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:00 pm

Since we are baisically chatting why don't we just go in the chat room? Its always free to be used, I do not get why more do not use it, I would.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:11 pm

So what does everyone think for 00z GFS,and Euro.  I am throwing out the CMC as its really been a outlier with really not showing anything.  To note UKMET and RMA also show a big storm. NAVGEM is also in there but not as close as GFS and Euro were, 18z GFS was just so off from the 12z it was not even funny.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:23 pm

What time are those model runs
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:24 pm

after midnight lol, NAM first but not in range yet, GFS, CMC then Euro. Gotta be a graveyard shift to watch them lol.
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