*BLOG: Halloween Forecast

Yeah Al, same here lol, I bet that changes, of course the pros are not going to say anything till its rock solid.

nws disco...
SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN
ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

Well thats a big cvhange from last nights disco, thanks I was just about to go read it myself. They edging toward a storm senario. They must have stance in the GFS today.

Mets2695 wrote:I'll be on for tonight's 0z runs and will chime in to look at 18z runs during class/dinner. Hope you all will be around tonight!

Alex,

how is it going up there kid? Are you loving LSC?? The gentlemen (my ol' student) who is a met by degree Scott says hello and was asking about you.

I will not be up for the 00Z runs but the 6Z runs tomorrow morning yes - only on a day off or if I am super charged up before a storm do I stay up that late. You youngins' can carry the torch for the graveyard shift!

jmanley32 wrote:Yeah Al, same here lol, I bet that changes, of course the pros are not going to say anything till its rock solid.

They ain't touchin' this one with a 10' pole until Thursday night or Friday morning after the 6z runs (GFS, EURO, CMC)- if they blow it then the rest of the winter forecasts for them are at stake with our over hyped public!

Well that would seem irresponsible too giving the public less than a days notice if it is a big storm.

Lee Goldberg mentioned the rain ending as wet snow for the NYC area with more snow north....

I saw the forecast he is being cautious too. Went by euro with comment about it staying offshore. I'd say they should start talking Thursday if it continues to be a threat by then.

No surprise 18z doesn't have the phase early enough however it has the northern and southern parts but basically it all misses everyone except maybe some light stuff. If mugs is right the 00z should shed different light.

When does the 00z run?

jmanley32 wrote:I saw the forecast he is being cautious too. Went by euro with comment about it staying offshore. I'd say they should start talking Thursday if it continues to be a threat by then.

Always will be have faith in that crew they know their weather and for him to mention this far out is saying something - the h5 pattern is there just need the ingredients for a millerB phase = timing. The big ingredient. 

The models do not show the uber or Davis straight block well - did not all last winter long sooo... We wait and the friggin' 18z run my god could it be any more hypocritical of what it showed at 12z today? Only time will tell.

Back to my home made cannolli filing !! YUM!

Frank, how about a live chat for the 0Z GFS tonight.

amugs wrote:SICK - HOLY  HANNA's Banna' sthe ste up is something - huge PNA spike - Davis/Uber straight  block - Momma Mia  on the set up like I said before I like the set up.



DOC, CP and SNOW - this delivers as progged - I keep the

Teh Ultimate KOD by me - hahaha!!

Mugs:

If this pans out your king for life. I just hope if it does I lose the rest of my leaves on my trees by Saturday. I lost 4 trees in he October 2011 storm and I don't want a repeat. Of course that was 16 inches of snow, I don't think we're talking anything like that.

Yet.

With these cut off lows showing up on the models lately, you kind of get the feeling we are going to have a lot of nail biting model watching this winter.

CP, if it pans out the HV will rock and now I'm here!

Wouldn't worry about KOD, Mugsy, this is a 30 to 1 shot right now, must phase perfectly for snow inland.

True Doc but we've seen these two times in the last four years in this time period.

Oct 29 2011 we saw 16 inches in my back yard, 3-5 in NYC
Nov 6 2012 5-10 inches in NYC just a few days after superstorm Sandy.

I'm thinking the odds are higher but still not in our favor.

we should all be happy that we have something to track. who the hell knows what will happen in the next 72 hours, as much as we would like to know that we can figure it out. Let's follow the script and watch each model run and get our hopes up and then come crashing down only to be lifted again by the next model run. How often do we get to do this in October? Hopefully this continues until March.

Hey CP and doc, I know this is nail biting and I am inclined to think we actually have a fairly good chance at this happening, or something in the realm. More than one model and more than one run of each has shown a WCS, but also a BCS (depending on if you want a storm or not). And yes 16 inches would take trees down but even down here in Yonkers where we had about 6 inches a ton of trees came down or branches, it was a mess, so I do not think that the amount of snowfall has a lot to do with the tree damage as a leaf can only hold so much snow and i doubt very much 16 inches accumulated on each leaf lol. I think its even higher than 30:1 that the leaves fall off by Saturday sorry, not happening. LOL, sorry but I had to throw that in there. Get your clippers out and get out there! lol. Just have to keep watching.

Why is the clock an hour ahead on this site here?

OMG mako you made me exhausted just reading that lol, thinking of all the sleepless nights last year, yes there are letdowns but when they hit they hit!

Mets you have to set your time zone in preferences.

Mets2695 wrote:Why is the clock an hour ahead on this site here?

Same thing happened to me Al. Go to Profile and Preferences and scroll to the bottom of the screen to fix the time zone. Jman I know you mentioned this but did the same thing happen to you?

Yes earlier today, it was odd like the site did it to a lot of people.

Since we are baisically chatting why don't we just go in the chat room? Its always free to be used, I do not get why more do not use it, I would.

So what does everyone think for 00z GFS,and Euro.  I am throwing out the CMC as its really been a outlier with really not showing anything.  To note UKMET and RMA also show a big storm. NAVGEM is also in there but not as close as GFS and Euro were, 18z GFS was just so off from the 12z it was not even funny.

What time are those model runs

after midnight lol, NAM first but not in range yet, GFS, CMC then Euro. Gotta be a graveyard shift to watch them lol.