Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:28 pm

Between the model mayhem and a boring Super Bowl, I see a lot of consumption of adult beverages in our future drunken

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:30 pm

In that case, we'll call it the "Stupor Bowl."

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:45 pm

12z EURO 10 day snowfall has a lot of us in 24-36", what a crock of crap, il cut off my ear if that verifies...

by **Grselig** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:46 pm

I hope it snows a blizzard in Arizona or wherever the hell the game is. I want a Mechagodzilla to crush the entire stadium. If I can't get mine, at least I can watch it on TV.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:46 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:12z EURO 10 day snowfall has a lot of us in 24-36", what a crock of crap, il cut off my ear if that verifies...

Noted.

14:46:23

by **GreyBeard** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:06 pm

I really hope we don't get too much mixing or rain with this storm especially if is going down to near 0° on Monday night.Forget trying to shovel that mess. You would need a pickaxe or a flamethrower. white flag

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:20 pm

The banter thread should be lighting up about now, either that or everyone has thrown in the towel. In the stock market it's called capitulation, right Doc?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:24 pm

I hate to do it but I believe I have to bring up banning the 2/17/14 snow killer again.

Administrators the ball is in your court. There is a tension in the banter thread you can cut with a knife. I may spend the rest of the weekend on OTI, for my sake and everyone elses.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:25 pm

The dude never made a post, ban him....... Anything to help our chances....

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:25 pm

CP, your getting 8+ inches of snow. Why you in the banter thread? Lol

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:29 pm

My thoughts are this I appreciate all the work put into the forecast here on this board I will not mention names everyone knows who I am talking about their are many of you. I have been part of this since the channel 7 days. So with that said forecast that are put out on here are not solely based on models that's a tool used but its also based on many other factors I have never seen it where their is a model run and the people on here say yup that's what it is and that's whats exactly going to happen and if that's what you want then your setting yourself up for failure. Mother Nature is in control not anyone here. With that said there has been many times where the forecast on here go to plan and it feels great and others it doesn't that's what I love the most about weather how it can change so fast and be a B****. lol just my thoughts

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:30 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:CP, your getting 8+ inches of snow. Why you in the banter thread? Lol

Not if this north trend continues Frank. Plus the Sref's had me more like 4, with a skating rink afterwards. And with a projected high of 18 on Monday. Go figure.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:31 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:CP, your getting 8+ inches of snow. Why you in the banter thread? Lol

Not if this north trend continues Frank. Plus the Sref's had me more like 4, with a skating rink afterwards. And with a projected high of 18 on Monday. Go figure.

When we say north trend, it's mainly effecting NYC. Actualy, you'll probably get 10 inches.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:CP, your getting 8+ inches of snow. Why you in the banter thread? Lol

Not if this north trend continues Frank. Plus the Sref's had me more like 4, with a skating rink afterwards. And with a projected high of 18 on Monday. Go figure.

When we say north trend, it's mainly effecting NYC. Actualy, you'll probably get 10 inches.

Where do I sign? Very Happy

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:35 pm

by **Grselig** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:36 pm

CP is correct. Ban the Snow Killer. Use GreyBeard's flame thrower. Use his pickaxe. Dammit, if logic and and sound science does not work, then resort to something more useful. GreyBeard would surly lend them to you if it would prevent an ice storm.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:37 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Priceless

by **sroc4** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:42 pm

Syo here is my statement I made when putting out my first call map.

Of course models cont to shift the soln overnight despite a relatively good consensus yesterday with a track coming off the coast between the Delmarva and the S tip of NJ. NOPE now the Euro ens, Euro op and CMC all try to cut the storm into Pa then transfer the energy to the coast somewhere off the southern third of NJ. Miller B. The GFS however is still more of a strait track but cont to trend further N and it too tracks somewhere off of the Southern 1/3 of the NJ coast. This of course brings the questions of WAA (warm air advection) into play from say NYC and points south. If today and tonight cont the northern trend many may be in trouble. If the north trend has plateaued and we tick back south ever so slightly its game on for everyone. My map below is my current thinking as of the northern trend to this point. I "think" we tick back south, as I think the confluence to our north wins out so tomorrow morning totals may shift a bit. HOWEVER, we are def going to have to watch the mid layers in real time develop as the system approaches and moves off the coast.

Here is franks Statement with his first call map.
In summary, this storm is far from being figured out right now. This is going to come down to a nowcasting situation. Since some of these temperatures are marginal, whether or not the cold air wins out will depend on the type of dynamics this storm manufacturers. Also, a track slightly further south than currently progged would help a lot of areas in central and southern NJ in seeing more snow. A shift in 20-30 miles in either direction will have a dramatic impact on precip. types. Cut-off's are to remain sharp wherever the temp. gradient sets up. Those just north of the baroclinic zone, where the mild air meets the arctic air, will see snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour with thundersnow.

Both clearly outline the possibility of it getting worse not better as a possibility. If you cant handle that, if its no fun then dont come on here. If its too addicting Ill ban you for as long as you want me too so you cant come on and be dissapointed.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:43 pm

I am hoping for just rain at this point, not trying to deal with cleaning up slop, aint nobody got time for dat, absolutely 100% hate it, at this point screw it, hopw north trend continues.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:43 pm

Grselig wrote:CP is correct. Ban the Snow Killer. Use GreyBeard's flame thrower. Use his pickaxe. Dammit, if logic and and sound science does not work, then resort to something more useful. GreyBeard would surly lend them to you if it would prevent an ice storm.

Frank, since we are in the banter thread, mob rule and irrational thinking should prevail. Either tar and feather this anonymous assassin, or leave his fate to the 600 plus, other than Alex, that may be robbed again by this nefarious thief in the night.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:44 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Priceless

Once you sign your 10 inches will be granted

Wx Banter Thread 1.0 - Page 30 January_31_2015_34246_PM_EST

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:45 pm

sroc4 wrote:Syo here is my statement I made when putting out my first call map.

Of course models cont to shift the soln overnight despite a relatively good consensus yesterday with a track coming off the coast between the Delmarva and the S tip of NJ. NOPE now the Euro ens, Euro op and CMC all try to cut the storm into Pa then transfer the energy to the coast somewhere off the southern third of NJ. Miller B. The GFS however is still more of a strait track but cont to trend further N and it too tracks somewhere off of the Southern 1/3 of the NJ coast. This of course brings the questions of WAA (warm air advection) into play from say NYC and points south. If today and tonight cont the northern trend many may be in trouble. If the north trend has plateaued and we tick back south ever so slightly its game on for everyone. My map below is my current thinking as of the northern trend to this point. I "think" we tick back south, as I think the confluence to our north wins out so tomorrow morning totals may shift a bit. HOWEVER, we are def going to have to watch the mid layers in real time develop as the system approaches and moves off the coast.

Here is franks Statement with his first call map.
In summary, this storm is far from being figured out right now. This is going to come down to a nowcasting situation. Since some of these temperatures are marginal, whether or not the cold air wins out will depend on the type of dynamics this storm manufacturers. Also, a track slightly further south than currently progged would help a lot of areas in central and southern NJ in seeing more snow. A shift in 20-30 miles in either direction will have a dramatic impact on precip. types. Cut-off's are to remain sharp wherever the temp. gradient sets up. Those just north of the baroclinic zone, where the mild air meets the arctic air, will see snow rates between 1-2 inches per hour with thundersnow.

Both clearly outline the possibility of it getting worse not better as a possibility. If you cant handle that, if its no fun then dont come on here. If its too addicting Ill ban you for as long as you want me too so you cant come on and be dissapointed.

We sound so professional. Wow.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:45 pm

At this point I'm hoping it goes so far north that Alex too gets rain.

JK Alex.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:47 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Priceless

Once you sign your 10 inches will be granted

If I only remembered how to upload here.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:48 pm

Use postimg.org

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:00 pm

I'm beginning to think there is to much in breeding going on in this forum and it is causing a complete mental breakdown in many when things don't go their way.

I cite as an example all of the members who whose last name ends in Snow. We should have Math23X7 calculate it, but it appears to me there are at least 100.

Yes guilty as charged.

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:08 pm

this is all scott's fault he said this storm was happening two weeks ago. If he didn't say anything the storm never would have materialized and we wouldn't be pulling the hair out of our heads.lol

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