Update #3: Godzilla Caged, 1st Call Snow Map (1/24/15)

if we estimate at temperatures between 30 and 32 degrees right before precipitation starts and we wet bulb down to 25 to 28 degrees I cant see the temperature rising above 32 until after 10 a.m. Especially with light winds from the north

BILL EVANS: 2.2" snow in NYC with 1.1" of rain.

Don't know how trustworthy the CMC is so close to the event, but it shows a good hit of snow on the back side, which sounds like you all are alluding to based on latest SREFs...

Gee Bill That equals 12inches of snow

LOL oldtimer, I don't think we only see 2 inches and 1 inch of rain. If an ything a big ice storm is more likely ground is cold and air will be right on the 32 line, gonna be a close call and a big nowcast, I do think we will be in WSW mode at some pt. maybe even ice storm warning if the ice keeps showing up, but GFS was terrible and haven't looked at CMC yet.

CMC has 6-9 strip into NYC and lower Westchester and into LI : ) rest area 3-6. No idea how much if any of that is ice, Frank said last night the CMC showed a big ice storm.

Jman Yea we need somthing to give us a lift Everyone alittle down

Guys I just can't see the ice verifying with a nor'easter undergoing bombogenesis as it approaches the latitude of Cape May Nj. 980 or so and dropping at the benchmark always results in a rain/snow situation and sometimes heavy sleet. Freezing rain is in my opinion not a viable forecast. Too much dynamics.

Well syo NWS is with you for the southern areas (no ice or very little) but their map has areas to the North in the .1-.15 area right now, we will see if they change that due to the short range models showing so. Stranger things have happened, but it does seem difficult to believe, I would like to know why the model thinks this (the ones that show significant frz that is).

cmc a big hit. 6+ inches for s good part of area. so right now we have nam rgem and cmc as hits with a solid 6" of snow and gfs with less tham 3" for most. also the former three models show nice backend snows.

Hi guys!
I have a tough question for all of you. We are planning the Pinewood Derby for our scout troop for Saturday. Keeping in mind that we are up here in the highlands and most of the time have our own little micro-climate up here the committee is debating on what to do. We are scheduled to run at 1:00pm. What do you think the driving conditions can be? Should we try to run this event at that time? This is such a tough call... and changing the event date is also a tough thing to accomplish...
Thanks for any advice you can give!

Al, you see on that second frame of CMC you posted there is a period of ice (pink right over our area, so hoping we get that 6 inches as snow. I also noted the NWS has not updated disco or snow ice rain maps since 9:34am and its nearly 1pm, they must be making some big decisions.

Al, the GFS ensembles actually show a big swath of 4-8 from NW of Philly through NEPA/NWNJ and into the HV.

cmc 850's 0*c never make it to nw nj and Hudson valley. low drops 9mb in 6hrs from 997 t0 988 from delmarvs to li. interesting

syosnow94 wrote:Guys I just can't see the ice verifying with a nor'easter undergoing bombogenesis as it approaches the latitude of Cape May Nj.  980 or so and dropping at the benchmark always results in a rain/snow situation and sometimes heavy sleet.  Freezing rain is in my opinion not a viable forecast.  Too much dynamics.

THIS.

I wouldn t write it off soul and syo, just a cautionary more than a yes it will happen or no it won't.

Al that's why I worry about the ice as it will be colder down here at the surface than the 850's, but that is odd has us +2 or more, which would be hard to believe would be all good snow.

I guess accu weather must be hanging there forecast on the gfs. just heard there update on 1010wins they said snow starting at midnight and acc. an inch by daybreak for nyc metro and li. ARE THEY KIDDING ME! WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING AT? these are educated mets how can they forecast that with what guidance shows today. it's really becoming difficult to listen to them. even gfs has more snow than that.

EURO coming in....looking juicy

algae888 wrote:I guess accu weather must be hanging there forecast on the gfs. just heard there update on 1010wins they said snow starting at midnight and acc. an inch by daybreak for nyc metro and li. ARE THEY KIDDING ME!  WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING AT? these are educated mets how can they forecast that with what guidance shows today. it's really becoming difficult to listen to them. even gfs has more snow than that.

I stopped listening to media forecasts a long time ago.

It is DUMPING from Edison, NJ north-bound.....

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_P850TS_0024.png

rb924119 wrote:It is DUMPING from Edison, NJ north-bound.....

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_P850TS_0024.png

That 0C line is way South of Edison... looks to be around I 195.

rb924119 wrote:Al, the GFS ensembles actually show a big swath of 4-8 from NW of Philly through NEPA/NWNJ and into the HV.

rb I was referring more to the nyc metro area. you guys look like you are going to do very well with this storm. cp and doc also

And the EURO says "SURPRISEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!"
http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/snosums/0024/ECM_12_opUS_SF_0030.png

rb924119 wrote:And the EURO says "SURPRISEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!"
http://www.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/snosums/0024/ECM_12_opUS_SF_0030.png

Ok, but that's not the greatest map in the world.

4-8 is a fairly big range.

Are most of us in the 4" area or 8"? See what I mean?

Sorry Analog, it's all I got lmao

Btw, next time stamp has a spot of 8-12 just north of NYC