1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
+39
H.G. Rising
mako460
Artechmetals
HectorO
deadrabbit79
lglickman1
sroc4
Sanchize06
Fededle22
Mathgod55
weatherwatchermom
Grselig
Taffy
mancave25
carvin1079
Nyi1058
devsman
rb924119
Abba701
NjWeatherGuy
Yschiff
SoulSingMG
jimv45
jmanley32
WeatherBob
Math23x7
algae888
amugs
skinsfan1177
oldtimer
Quietace
nutleyblizzard
Dtone
CPcantmeasuresnow
billg315
RJB8525
snow247
Biggin23
Frank_Wx
43 posters
Page 6 of 13
Page 6 of 13 • 1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11, 12, 13
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Night ya'll check in the am
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
c/s nj does not do well because first wave is almost all rain.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
That seems strange that it has no real heavy band there.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20513
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Yeah me too. The latest RGEM is a big improvement especially for the HV.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
frank I think there is going to be a very narrow band of up to 12" others wise most areas end up with 6" + ratios
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Last time NYC saw 12"+ of snow in March was 1993
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
GFS initialized
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
RGEM is a great run, as long as NAM doesnt continue to shift south and models hold serve thru tomorrow along with GFS this should be a nice event for DC/PHI/NYC
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Heights look higher to me. Should be north of 18z. That's not saying much anyway. That run was an anomaly.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Hour 24...this is coming north. Lets see by how much
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Barely north. It's still ugly especially for NYC north
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Models not in agreement...annoying.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Frank_Wx wrote:Models not in agreement...annoying.
It really is annoying. This close to an event, it's just ridiculous.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
How much does NYC get with the GFS.Nothing?
Abba701- Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
and we thought we had it last night, only good thing about that is that no one can get upset yet lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20513
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Abba701 wrote:How much does NYC get with the GFS.Nothing?
3-6
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Take a look at the current H5:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb_sf.gif?1425440802130
It looks like the 552 dam trough axis may be a touch less positively tilted than guidance (mainly the SREFs, since they are the only ones I can get H5 maps for) suggested it should be at this time. It's also highly possible/likely I'm grasping at straws here lol I'll be back tomorrow at some point lmao
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/500mb/500mb_sf.gif?1425440802130
It looks like the 552 dam trough axis may be a touch less positively tilted than guidance (mainly the SREFs, since they are the only ones I can get H5 maps for) suggested it should be at this time. It's also highly possible/likely I'm grasping at straws here lol I'll be back tomorrow at some point lmao
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
That's not so
Much worse then 4-8
Much worse then 4-8
Abba701- Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
As for the globals, it's inconclusive since I cannot get them in three hour increments. Good night all!!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 6889
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
From what i can see, so many people will be upset with snow totals because jackpots will be 25 miles wide. and cutoffs will be sharp. Anything at 6 inches should be a gift this time of year.
devsman- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 48
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
I posted this on another website so I wanted to know what you guys thought of it.
Update on the next 48 hours and beyond:
Within the next hour or so the ice/rain in the NYC region will be tapering off as temperatures gradually warm up towards 40 for tomorrow as we will have on and off rain showers throughout the day. By nightfall, the cold front will bring precipitation in the form of rain for the I-95 corridor along with coastal regions. By the wee hours of Thursday morning, it changes over. This is where things get a bit tricky. I have noticed a couple of things today:
1) Some areas in the northeast may go over to ice before going over to snow.
2) The trend has been for this system to move further south giving NYC/LI and northern suburbs less snow and the region from Washington DC to Philadelphia to the Jersey shore more snow.
As of right now, I expect 4-8” of snow for NYC/LI, less than 4" of snow for areas north of NYC, and 8-12” of snow for places south of NYC. If this trend continues for the next 12 hours, these snow totals may be lowered by a lot. On the other hand, if we see a sudden shift in the other direction (northward), the snow totals for NYC/LI may be increased.
Some other things to point out:
1) With the rain tomorrow, there will be localized street flooding issues with melting snow.
2) Thursday night, temperatures will drop into the teens so black ice could be an issue then even if we do not get as much snow as I mentioned above.
3) The weekend and the beginning of next week looks to be sunny with highs in the 40s, which would mean a lot of melting snow, especially with the high March sun angle. While these temperatures would be welcoming to a lot of people (myself included), localized street flooding will be a factor here as well. It would not surprise me if, with the exception of tall snow banks, much of the snowpack is gone by this time next week.
I hope to have another update tomorrow morning before I head off to work.
Update on the next 48 hours and beyond:
Within the next hour or so the ice/rain in the NYC region will be tapering off as temperatures gradually warm up towards 40 for tomorrow as we will have on and off rain showers throughout the day. By nightfall, the cold front will bring precipitation in the form of rain for the I-95 corridor along with coastal regions. By the wee hours of Thursday morning, it changes over. This is where things get a bit tricky. I have noticed a couple of things today:
1) Some areas in the northeast may go over to ice before going over to snow.
2) The trend has been for this system to move further south giving NYC/LI and northern suburbs less snow and the region from Washington DC to Philadelphia to the Jersey shore more snow.
As of right now, I expect 4-8” of snow for NYC/LI, less than 4" of snow for areas north of NYC, and 8-12” of snow for places south of NYC. If this trend continues for the next 12 hours, these snow totals may be lowered by a lot. On the other hand, if we see a sudden shift in the other direction (northward), the snow totals for NYC/LI may be increased.
Some other things to point out:
1) With the rain tomorrow, there will be localized street flooding issues with melting snow.
2) Thursday night, temperatures will drop into the teens so black ice could be an issue then even if we do not get as much snow as I mentioned above.
3) The weekend and the beginning of next week looks to be sunny with highs in the 40s, which would mean a lot of melting snow, especially with the high March sun angle. While these temperatures would be welcoming to a lot of people (myself included), localized street flooding will be a factor here as well. It would not surprise me if, with the exception of tall snow banks, much of the snowpack is gone by this time next week.
I hope to have another update tomorrow morning before I head off to work.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
You have to understand. A deviation of 25 miles can make or break forecasts. You can not expect a model to be within 25 miles , even at this point in time, when just a slight movement in the general upper level flow along with small curvatures in the upper flow ( small undefined disturbances) that the models don't see sometimes. I think the models are fairly close in general. The key is, will we get some kind of sharpening of any trough in any portion of the atmosphere? Temp gradient is not going to do it with this one.
WeatherBob- Meteorologist
- Posts : 683
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 500 FT
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
GFS trended south, ugh this is what I did not want to see and tosses a wrench into the forecast as usual.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Which has been more accurate this winter? The GFS or the RGEM?
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
snow247 wrote:Which has been more accurate this winter? The GFS or the RGEM?
RGEM under 24-36 hours
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 4th-5th
Frank_Wx wrote:snow247 wrote:Which has been more accurate this winter? The GFS or the RGEM?
RGEM under 24-36 hours
And we are getting into/into that range, so shouldn't we trust the RGEM at least a bit more due to it's accuracy lately instead of the GFS?
I am also reading that the GFS tends to struggle with these types of storms, what's your take on that?
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'
Page 6 of 13 • 1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11, 12, 13
Page 6 of 13
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|