Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

Frank_Wx wrote:Atlantic SST anomalies

Thats going to be a big factor, been ripe all year looks like it gonna crack this time.

aiannone wrote:Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.

Good point, but HP placement seems to change with every model run. We'll have to watch that closely.

aiannone wrote:Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.

Yes great point all depends on where and how strong the blocking sets up. Umm did anyone. Notice how high in the charts the pna is?, something I have been talking about for thus upcoming winter.

Frank (as always) is right though. We probably need to watch what happens with tomorrow night/Wednesday system, before we have a good grasp on how things will evolve going into this weekend.

The LLC just moved under all the deep convection, this storm is ramping up. 11pm update IMO we will have named storm, I also noted for a TD 1003mb is really low.

DT from wxrisk.com posted this earlier this afternoon:

billg315 wrote:Frank (as always) is right though. We probably need to watch what happens with tomorrow night/Wednesday system, before we have a good grasp on how things will evolve going into this weekend.

Yes the storm tomorrow could have a effect on the future of TD11. Will be interesting to see what happens with models tomorrow night and wed.

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.

Good point, but HP placement seems to change with every model run. We'll have to watch that closely.

Agreed, we will have a lot of flip-flopping over the next few days. Hopefully by Thursday we will have a good handle on it.

Math23x7 wrote:DT from wxrisk.com posted this earlier this afternoon:

We do not need a sandy 2 to have a whole heap of trouble, and we could argue what is definition of sandy is it wind, surge etc? I mean I could see this getting near Irene wind strength maybe, storm surge no cuz sandy setup was at a very bad timing. But ya hwrf is off its rocker and is sandy x2 not just sandy 2.

Just to know what I posted above was not my opinion, just his.  Still need some time to monitor this.  I often say to people during the winter that the upcoming system will dictate the one after it.  After tomorrow night's rsin, we should have a better understanding of how the weekend system will play out.

amugs wrote:

aiannone wrote:Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.

Yes great point all depends on where and how strong the blocking sets up. Umm did anyone. Notice how high in the charts the pna is?, something I have been talking about for thus upcoming winter.

Amplification of the western ridge is important to closing off H5. If we get too zonal it could shun everything east. But with that kind of block - unlikely.

Math23x7 wrote:DT from wxrisk.com posted this earlier this afternoon:

Ehhh he's kind of right and wrong at the same time. If the High builds in a little further north and east the block would be similar. We'll still see a -NAO this weekend

Just so you know what I posted above was not my opinion, just DT's.  Still need some time to monitor this.  I often say to people during the winter that the upcoming system will dictate the one after it.  After tomorrow night's rain, we should have a better understanding of how the weekend system will play out.

aiannone wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

aiannone wrote:Something to note for the Sandy comparisons is that the HP setup for this event is a bit further south than the HP during Sandy that pushed the storm into the coast. What does this mean? Well there are many other factors to consider but one could hypothesize that this could mean a landfall a bit further south than Sandy. I am eyeing SNJ or Northern DE right now.

Good point, but HP placement seems to change with every model run. We'll have to watch that closely.

Agreed, we will have a lot of flip-flopping over the next few days. Hopefully by Thursday we will have a good handle on it.

Not much time to prepare IF it ends up being really bad, especially if it starts in the earlier of weekend. I can see the store rush starting wed, its going up on media now including wx channel so everyone is going to know soon there is a threat and the hypers are going to make it worse, or not...

So Frank in terms of setup rarity is this as rare as the sandy setup? Not talking about how big or strong just curious is this a very anomolous setup?

jmanley32 wrote:So Frank in terms of setup rarity is this as rare as the sandy setup? Not talking about how big or strong just curious is this a very anomolous setup?

It hasn't been discussed as much but this closed 500 mb vort in the southeast (mid week system) plays a big role in the setup of the weekend storm. At the 500mb level, we have a pumping +PNA ridge with a closed 500mb vort over the southeast. This closed vort tracks north to interact with a front. Behind the front, strong pieces of mid level energy digs into the trough which helps amplify it. Meanwhile, the midweek storm hits a road block with the large HP in the NW Atlantic and phases into the pinched off ridge. This in turn amplifies the ridge, or the block. The newly amplified block forces the trough to go negative  and there just happens to be a tropical depression sitting off the coast. This depression gets captured and tada, we're tracking a hybrid.

So yes, I would say it's on the rare side only because of the perfect timing with all these variables that plays into it.

At 11pm, the national hurricane center declared TD 11 Tropical Storm Joaquin

Latest track for tropical storm Joaquin

I am coming home at just the right time

I don't like the name lol

Oh wow a 65mph TS in coming days thats up from 50mph, just short hurricane by 10mph, just watched rayno said could push near hurricane effects if thta trought picks it up and it explodes. Slowed a lot on track but only by a day. Now we should get better modeling as also when hurricane hunters feed in data. May have cancel trip to jersey Sat....

aiannone wrote:I am coming home at just the right time

whereever it goes count me in to go with you hunting if your gonna do it!

A few thoughts.

1. This is exactly what you want to see as a snow lover because I'm a big believer in big storms creating the path future storms will take,
2. 50+ mph winds on top of saturated ground with all the leaves still on the trees is a recipe for a disaster. tree damage worse than Sandy if we get 60+ gusts. 1 month earlier means more leaves
3. 6 to 8" of rain area wide thru Sunday will flood a ton of basements. I for one will be spending the storm in my backyard in fishing boots digging trenches.
4. After it's all said and done this storm should kick-start the fall bass run here on Long Island

....one other item to note. there's some sub-freezing air progged to spill into the northern plains from Canada in a few days. If this thing bombs out and drags that cold air into it, some higher elevations above 2000' in the interior NE could see significant snows IMO.

Syo i been say that all along a lot of trees go be down id speculate on a lot of power disruption just heard that NHC saying hurricane development b4 goes hybrid not out of question, the winds keep increasing we go have real big issues. and the ground will be fairly saturated after this first round adding insult to injury.

I do not think there is a exact correlation but winds sustained 65mph would give gusts to 80 at times at least. I think the windfield could be huge too so like with sandy even if its south could have same effects hundreds miles away.

One thing to point out about Sandy:

I have in an Excel file the AO, NAO, and PNA readings for pretty much every day from January 1st, 1950 to August 31st, 2015.  The NAO on October 29th, 2012 (the day Sandy hit) was -2.218, which out of 23,892 days ranks #79 on the list of lowest NAO readings.

I'm not sure how the potential Joaquin setup compares though.

00z GFS shows a historic deluge of rainfall later in the week. ~ a foot of it not even including Wed AM rainfall.