Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[NjWeatherGuy]

Uh, guys, I think the Canadian just went to a snowstorm on the 8th if im seeing this right, hr 132.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

No, that's rain. 540 line is in the Great Lakes.

Isnt the 540 the blue line, looks like it gets pulled into the storm from what I see, still could be too warm at the surface but it looks like thats below freezing aloft on last nights run.

[amugs]

Uh, guys, I think the Canadian just went to a snowstorm on the 8th if im seeing this right, hr 132.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=132

No, that's rain. 540 line is in the Great Lakes.

Isnt the 540 the blue line, looks like it gets pulled into the storm from what I see, still could be too warm at the surface but it looks like thats below freezing aloft on last nights run.

Tom from teh look sit does start to get pulled from the GL into it but seems to reside in Central PA - funnier things have happened with these beasts but looks to be rain for the coast. Time will tell.

Side not Nick Gregory last night on the 10PM news said there is possibility of a Nor'easter mid week.

[Frank_Wx]

Interesting to see progression of Stratospheric temps and heights on the 18z GFS. If this is right - a pretty big if considering I'm about to show 300+ hour maps - then maybe we'll see a more vigorous wave 1 warming event by the middle of the month. Let's start by looking at 1hPa temps in the upper Stratosphere valid 12/15.



Warming is showing across all of northern Siberia. By this time, 500mb GPHA (geopotential height anomalies) are shown to be positive in west-central Siberia, Europe, and parts of the Arcric. It's worth mentioning that if the amplitude of these ridges strengthen, then that could have greater impact to possibly displacing our Strato Vortex through wave 1 warming.



Getting back to upper Strato temps, this time at 384 hours, you can see above normal temps are trying to sneak into the Arctic. This almost resembles a top-down warming event if only it were modeled to be a little stronger.  

We want to see this type of warming, preferably stronger, downwell into the mid to lower Stratosphere. Looking at 10 hPa, it doesn't look impressive at this time.
Here's 300 hours -same time frame I posted above.



Thought by 384 hours it's trying to show some life...



Again, these are not fantastic looking maps but it's better than the alternative. Too bad it's modeled way out into the future. How these maps look 7-10 days from today will be interesting to see.

[Frank_Wx]

Nino is starting to look a bit more central based. Good to see. Now if it can stop strengthening that would be great.

[Frank_Wx]

Another westerly attack between Dateline and 120W?

[Frank_Wx]

MJO just doesn't want to deamplify...

[algae888]

Wow for December 3rd the board is very quiet. As for the long range it looks pretty clear that by day 10 there would be a big ridge in the east and a deep trough out west. hopefully this could produce a big storm in the middle of the country which would move due north into Canada and towards Hudson Bay. I think we should hope that this happens and this storm would be intense and maybe pull some cold air towards the east coast and hopefully break this pattern. we need something to break this pattern even if its just transient to get some wintry weather here at the end of this month. I mean this pattern has been locked in for 6 weeks now and will continue for two more. any thoughts?

[Frank_Wx]

12z GFS shows decent cold mid-month with a couple of storm chances, but the Pacific is still a mess and there is pseudo-blocking which usually dissipates as we get closer. We'll see....

[amugs]

Penitence is going to pay off as per Isotherm one of our own here:

Everything seems to be progressing as anticipated thus far. Ozone transport has been increasing via a strengthening BDC, with decreasing temperatures in the tropical stratosphere. The progged precursor pattern should peak around December 10th, leading to a strong spike in WAF anomalies, probably by late December. There are already signs of a wave-1 induced displacement event on the longer term stratospheric forecasts. Tropospheric-stratospheric coupling and energy transfer should be quite strong in the week 2-3 period. We're combatting a robust westerly QBO, but as initially noted in the winter outlook, favorable tropospheric factors should override this influence eventually. My thinking still remains that early-mid January begins the protracted NAM reversal, potentially following an early January stratospheric warming event. The timing is always difficult to predict, but I think the indicators favor the first half of January.

Cliff Notes (those over 40 remember these well!)
What does this mean - we are still on track for a PV displacement or splitting that will allow the AO to go negative for a majority of our winter by early/mid Jan time frame hence the BACK LOADED winter.

[amugs]

PDO #'s dropped a good deal as per NAOO.

201510 0.88
201511 0.47

[amugs]

Look at this blog I found from Eastern Mass WX site on teh EPO - interesting indeed

The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) indicator that I referenced in my blog has been calculated. The H7mb zonal wind across the north Pacific has been calculated at 10.90 m/s, and since anything greater than 7.5 m/s is considered to favor a mean negative mean EPO state throughout the DJFM period, this reading obviously supports a predominately negative EPO as the mean DJFM reading this season, and in fact, only 2004 and 1969 have been more emphatically supportive of a mean DJFM negative EPO than this year. When this indicator has favored a mean DJFM -EPO, it has verified 10/11 times. Obviously, the month of December will come in highly positive, which means that sometime probably in latter January, we will witness a violent reversal as the Gulf of Alaska Low begins to retrograde with great fervor. This reversal should be the theme of the winter.
The behavior of the Atlantic oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will likely mimic the behavior of the EPO this season, as there is also information to suggest there is roughy a 71.4% chance of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) this season, which acts to disturb the Polar Vortex.
If you are a winter weather aficionado, I suggest that you pull up the shades a take a break from this addictive hobby for about 6 weeks, then abruptly draw the shades and fasten your seat belt for what promises to be a bumpy ride the second half of this season.



DOUBLE BOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Seeing some really amped up cyclones by Alaska in the LR some sub 970 or even sub 960 any affect on our pattern? They look huge on the 12z GFS.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Like this...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/tr12f264.php

Boy that would be impressive if it verified wouldnt it.

[Frank_Wx]

The upper Stratospheric warmth I talked about yesterday is still showing on today's runs. In fact, the GEFS have strong 10mb geopotential heights over eastern Siberia in Day 10-12 range leading to increased warming. Definitely what you want to see. Now let's propagate that warmth into the mid and lower levels. Will we get feedback from the Troposphere into the Stratosphere? The pattern at the Troposphere is about to become very amplified for 2 reasons:

1. The SOI continues to crash. It is now down to -42 which suggests the Pacific Jet Stream is anomalously strong. In fact, it's placed a little too far north than where you'll typically find it during El Nino years. I think the SOI + incoming WWB event will cause Nino to continue intensifying over the central regions leading to continued warmth over the central and eastern portions of the U.S. (since the Pac Jet will override the Polar Jet).

Here's a look at the strong Pac jet



Here's a look at the next WWB the GFS is forecasting over the next week. This is on par with what we saw in October!



2. EPS, as well as other guidance, showing very strong Vortex embedded within Pacific trough south of Alaska. In turn, this could lead to positive Mountain Torque conditions to take place which would call for wave forcing to feedback into the Stratosphere.



Obviously during this time our sensible weather will be warmer than normal. But you take some good with the bad and hope around Xmas time we begun to see positive changes take place. Actually, tonight is the first time this season I'm feeling good about our pattern. I think it'll begin to show in the Stratosphere by week 4 of Dec and SSWE to take place sometime in January.

[algae888]

Frank that's good news. I'm also hearing that the new Euro weeklies don't look too bad at the end of the run. the last week builds heights in Northwest Canada and Alaska and starts to retrograde that low towards the Aleutians still warm up until Christmas though. Maybe signs things are changing slowly

[Frank_Wx]

Fresh off the press...EURO Weeklies. Actually, not as bad as last week's run.

Day 7: pattern amplification with deep trough and strong low over Alaska and strong ridge in eastern CONUS and Canada.



Day 14: Siberian connection over western North America with continued warmth over the east. -PNA keeps winds over our area coming out of the south.



Day 21 (Xmas time frame) NAO/AO still positive, PNA negative but tighter isobars suggest STJ could be rolling by this time.



Day 30: SW trough beginning to expand east in response to positive heights anomalies getting into EPO/PNA domains.



Not bad.

[amugs]

Very good news Frank. SROC made mention a few days ago that the crashing SOI would have a big feedback in the atmosphere some how some way and that the models will not pick up on this dynamic change or lag for a while (days sometimes weeks). We are going to see the latent heat release from the Siberian snow cover start to have an effect on the atmosphere as well. Things take time and the process has to evolve, with such a strong nino and pac it is going to take a tad longer but nothing we have not dealt with in the past.

@Al, the weeklies look still blah but they along with the op will not pick up on this perturbation of the atmosphere for sometime so we need to be patient.

Those who were neg nanny's and ready to jump ship or off the cliff well you can take a step back now -



Looking better already - Siberian effect ???

[Frank_Wx]

A better look at the weeklies. Canadian ridge / AK vortex retrograde

[Frank_Wx]

NAEFS @ 10hPa match GFS valid 384 hours



CMS Ens also in agreement same time frame.



Also, improved mean zonal winds 10hPa @ 60 lat according to GEFS. By 384 we're seeing reduced zonal winds

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The depth of the analysis on this board is incredible but unfortunately what I'm taking out of it is wake me up in Janauary.  I'm finding this incredibly frustrating but the experts here have been warning us about this ridiculously prolonged warmth for fall and early winter for months. I was hoping they'd be wrong but no luck.

[NjWeatherGuy]

The depth of the analysis on this board is incredible but unfortunately what I'm taking out of it is wake me up in Janauary.  I'm finding this incredibly frustrating but the experts here have been warning us about this ridiculously prolonged warmth for fall and early winter for months. I was hoping they'd be wrong but no luck.

I dont know CP, lots of systems before then and one mid month has potential, especially inland around your area, dont hibernate yet. Not the next week storm, a following system.

[Snow88]

GFS has the cold coming in on the 16th. Not a bad pattern towards the end of the GFS.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Accuweather expressing some of my concerns about the strong El Nino but they jumped fully on the winter cancel bandwagon which I want to reiterate I am not on right now.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-nino-to-deliver-warmth-eastern-central-us-december-january-polar-vortex-locked/53959011

[docstox12]

Accuweather expressing some of my concerns about the strong El Nino but they jumped fully on the winter cancel bandwagon which I want to reiterate I am not on right now.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-nino-to-deliver-warmth-eastern-central-us-december-january-polar-vortex-locked/53959011

Well that Accuweather presentation just re-inforces the back end scenario our resident analysts here have been calling for.What I take from this is if there is snow in Dec and Jan, it will disappear quickly so no snowpack those months.This grim Accuweather prognosis does not concern me as we still have Feb and Mar to make up for lost time.

[docstox12]

The depth of the analysis on this board is incredible but unfortunately what I'm taking out of it is wake me up in Janauary.  I'm finding this incredibly frustrating but the experts here have been warning us about this ridiculously prolonged warmth for fall and early winter for months. I was hoping they'd be wrong but no luck.

I dont know CP, lots of systems before then and one mid month has potential, especially inland around your area, dont hibernate yet. Not the next week storm, a following system.

Your analysis fits in to that Accuweather info you posted about snow being possible even in these two "hell nino" Dec and Jan months.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Why, why would you do this to us GFS... 6z run showing some long range eye candy...


https://2img.net/h/oi64.tinypic.com/313kti8.png

[algae888]

the euro ens 500mb mean at day 10 is heading in the right direction for us. the Alaskan vortex is gone. as frank noted earlier, will this be sustained or just transient in nature still to be determined. also all the indicators pna, nao and ao and epo will be around neutral at this time so the 10-15 day period will have to be watched for some wintry weather.

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