Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[NjWeatherGuy]

Why, why would you do this to us GFS... 6z run showing some long range eye candy...


https://2img.net/h/oi64.tinypic.com/313kti8.png

[algae888]

the euro ens 500mb mean at day 10 is heading in the right direction for us. the Alaskan vortex is gone. as frank noted earlier, will this be sustained or just transient in nature still to be determined. also all the indicators pna, nao and ao and epo will be around neutral at this time so the 10-15 day period will have to be watched for some wintry weather.

[Snow88]

6z GFS
NAO

AO

[NjWeatherGuy]

I think that link got messed up, this should work.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=348&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_348_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151204+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

[Frank_Wx]

Pretty intense looking west-based block showing up in the long run between 16th-20th. If true could lead to our first widespread winter storm event for the area. 

[NjWeatherGuy]

Id like to see this verify... Would allow some storms to start interacting with the polar jet and get some winter storms blowing up in the eastern US.

[sroc4]

Pretty intense looking west-based block showing up in the long run between 16th-20th. If true could lead to our first widespread winter storm event for the area. 

Man O Man aint that a site for sore eyes. Wish it was the 3-5day forecast

[chief7]

DT winter outlook http://1drv.ms/1IsTXxe

[Math23x7]

It's an impressive look for sure but keep in mind that it's the long range GFS. Until the ECMWF shows that ridge near Greenland, I'm not getting amped up about it.

[amugs]

the euro ens 500mb mean at day 10 is heading in the right direction for us. the Alaskan vortex is gone. as frank noted earlier, will this be sustained or just transient in nature still to be determined. also all the indicators pna, nao and ao and epo will be around neutral at this time so the 10-15 day period will have to be watched for some wintry weather.

Al like I said last night and SROC made mention by Turkey day - these perturbations that are taking place over Siberia, the PAC (trop forcing out by the dateline) and Indian Oceans from what I have read and researched have a great lag effect on the models by days to weeks sometimes. The cattle prodding of the atmosphere is taking place and from what we are seeing. As well we will see the PNA spike I think come the last week of Dec. maybe sooner look at this morning gefs - coming around at the end of the month



aligning with the Canadians CanSIPS



From JB thoughts on cold as it advances through Jan into Feb



Interesting pattern ahead and times

AO


NAO


PNA



EPO

[Frank_Wx]

12z GFS lost the cut off ridge (block) south of Greenland and therefore shows continued warmth through the 20th with a couple of cutting rainstorms. That block is going to determine whether or not we see wintry weather between the 18th and 23rd time frame. If it does not set up, which is more likely than not given the nature of the progressive / strong Nino pattern, then we'll stay above normal as originally planned.

[Frank_Wx]

Here are the differences between 6z (leftt) and 12z (right). 6z cuts off the block and digs / amplifies the trough south of it. The 12z keeps the pattern progressive, which is what we've been in for seemingly forever. This would call for continued warmth and cutting rainstorms.

[rb924119]

12z EURO OP brings back our coastal for next week.....

[sroc4]

12z EURO OP brings back our coastal for next week.....

I was just looking at this myself. I think this is a diff system. The original was for the 9th time frame. This is a second wave if I'm not mistaken.

[rb924119]

I honestly don't know if I've ever seen such a f-ugly look at H5 in my life......



I mean, this is amazingly horrific lol

[rb924119]

Good call Sroc. I was just skimming through the run, because I have to get ready for work, and assumed it was the same one. And we all know what assuming does :p

[rb924119]

I say we all gather our things and move out west this year, because let's face it: This pattern ain't going anywhere anytime soon. That's blocked harder than a safety against a downfield lineman.....

[skinsfan1177]

See you guys in Janruary lol

[skinsfan1177]

It gets very discouraging one minute the pattern not as bad next it is back and forth we go

[Frank_Wx]

I say we all gather our things and move out west this year, because let's face it: This pattern ain't going anywhere anytime soon. That's blocked harder than a safety against a downfield lineman.....

Ugh.

It gets very discouraging one minute the pattern not as bad next it is back and forth we go

Its always looked bad. 6z GFS tried to show a cut off block but thosse rarely come to fruition in the long range. Welcome to December 2015. Its the nature of the strong El Nino. Once the Stratosphere cooperates we'll begin to see positive changes aloft.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Does this show a tropical system hour 240?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/tr12f240.php

[amugs]

talk about nuts look at these incredibly warm, hot waters!!

[amugs]

18Z hmmmmm!!!

[algae888]

If we want to see any kind of cold or winter weather before the last week of December we are going to need that trough in the west to really dig and produce a big storm in the middle of the country that heads up into the Great Lakes towards Hudson Bay and hopefully pull down some cold air which could break this above normal temperature regime for at least several days. Most of the guidance has this storm and it's still too far out to determine how strong it will be but we should hope for it to be as strong as possible. Otherwise we're toast until very late this month or more likely January. There are good signs moving forward like the QBO relaxing and the stratosphere starting to heat up as Steve D pointed out this morning.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Variety of solns on the table still, 12z CMC ensembles, check out that pac monster!

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm

[Snow88]

I think the best shot of snow in the east is with the Decemebr 18/19 possible storm ( that's if the track is good ). It looks like the cold will be here by then but it looks temporary ( right now ). The true pattern change should come in early January.

[NjWeatherGuy]

^ Its the first true possibility on the horizon but still in garbage time for the models so tread lightly. Agree about late December or January change.

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