Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[amugs]

things happen threes right?
well here is the last one



Splitting the uprights like Janakowski of the Oakland Raiders last night on ot ftw

[amugs]

these three posts above =pattern change coming soon to an area near you like ......Frank will let us know in a couple days........

from wxbell mjo yeah baby



AO best look in months


NAO bring it baby


PNA OH YEAH


FINALLY EPO TRES FOR TRES


not too shabby -euro weeklies showing a good to great ride from about jan 10ish to feb 10ish

[Guest]

I hope you guys are right on this one.  The optimism is great  but if it doesn't come to fruition after this past month I think people like myself are gonna lose it.

[algae888]

Today's MJO forecast on the GFS continues to show a very amplified even more so than the previous runs phase 7 & 8 in the next two weeks. The other guidance is similar Plus we're going into a positive PNA -epo and -ao pattern. Any short wave that comes down stream will have a chance for cyclogenesis once it hits the East Coast. My only concern is if the trough is too far east then systems would be to East and we would be left cold and dry. interesting times ahead

[skinsfan1177]

Is their any sign of a -NAO wouldn't that be key for storms to come up the coast

[amugs]

Is their any sign of a -NAO wouldn't that be key for storms to come up the coast

As per this indicy it is coming:

[amugs]

Euro weeklies from the bell













10000000000000x better than what we are in and it is holding steadfast on the AL vortex retrograding SW of teh ALeutians, pumpion the -EPO and +PNA along with the trough over SE.

[skinsfan1177]

I know I'm excited to see a change in pattern with that being said and it's a thousand times better but how cold? Are storms coming and what can make it even better

[Frank_Wx]

I will have more to say in the next Mo Mo, but the pattern to start 2016 will be entirely different than the one we've endured in December. Is it a pattern that will deliver snow? At this time, I still think the true winter pattern of sustained cold and frequent snow threats is still in the mid to late January time frame. Like I've been saying for weeks, this is a step-down pattern and we're finally getting through phase 1.

[Frank_Wx]

Signs of a rapidly weakening Strat Polar Vortex come January.

[chief7]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

[algae888]

I don't know a lot about the QBO but I'm hearing that it's declining rapidly. I believe it's + 9 right now down from about + 15 in October at 30 mb which i think is the more important layer. What I read about the QBO is that high latitude blocking can become established when it's between -8 and +8. So its not too far away from those levels as we speak and declining. Some mets feel this could be one of the more important indicators this winter with the declining El Nino.

[Frank_Wx]

I don't typically like using these teleconnection charts - since they're not always on par with 500mb - but this looks accurate. The NAO should remain positive despite the height rises taking place over the Arctic regions in January. The NAO - at least for me - was always going to be the last signal to cooperate. I'm not seeing a negative NAO develop until February (if at all to be honest).

[sroc4]

Honestly Frank I'm not sure we will need it. The main driver the last two years as we were headed into the second half of winter has been the -EPO compliments of the positive PDO and the trop pac forcing near the dateline. Although weaker than last year the PDO region is still mod warm and should def support a sustained negative EPO. Beginning Jan the EPO ridge should start to drive cold air into the east. Similar to last winter in the early going it comes and backs off and comes again and again relentlessly. Each time dropping SST off the coast and offering up opportunities for snow chances. As the snow pack builds in the NE further and further south each push of the cold air becomes less and less transient, because as they say of the cold and snow it breeds cold and snow.  Unlike last year where El Niño was in its infancy and the STJ had not yet really gotten going, this year we are all systems go regarding the STJ so hopefully we have more opportunity for more intense cyclogenisis and bigger snow accumulations vs the mild mod events created by the sfwe events frequented last year.  This year it looks way more likely we get the -AO. God willing if the stratosphere responds as is possible given current observations and modeling and we get the -NAO even if only for a 3-4 week period some time in late Jan or February  we really have a chance for some historic storms and snowfall totals. This is not just a snow weenies wish but a distinct possibility of becoming a reality given everything I've researched, what I see in the current medium and LR modeling, and what very smart individuals both amateur and pro mets have to say.  Again even without a neg NAO I am still very confident in above avg snowfall. I of course may run into a two by four up side the head as we head deeper into the season but I seriously doubt it.  I am very pleased with where we are right now.

[Frank_Wx]

Here is an updated graphic from Judah Cohen which shows the next pulse of +WAF into the Stratosphere around the 2nd week of January. The weakening of zonal winds, evidenced by the steady decline of the QBO at 30mb, in the upper Stratosphere will coincide with this next wave transfer event. I have a feeling the Stratospheric PV splits week 2 of January and a highly favorable 500mb pattern develops in late January.

The upcoming Tropospheric pattern - to me - will bring normal to below normal weather after New Years but struggle to see cyclogenesis occur along the east coast. Reason being the lack of well defined Aleutian trough. The low heights progged over the Aleutians in early January are a result of intense pieces of H5 energy breaking off from the western Arctic Tropospheric PV. Until a better defined / organized / anomalous trough develops there, the EPO/PNA ridges will remain transient. This should become apparent once the MJO deamplifies or exits phase 7. Additionally, the NAO looks to remain positive. It will be difficult to see trough amplification over the eastern U.S. with these signals prior to a SSWE and under strong El Nino conditions. Not to say there won't be opportunities for wintry weather, such as what we'll see Tuesday morning, but the Godzilla-type storms will wait until late Jan into February IMO.

I know people are not necessarily chasing Godzilla's, but I've seen some posts insinuating the upcoming pattern flip in early January looks "cold and dry." This may be true (though I caution it won't take much for storms to show up in the short range thanks to the STJ), but the upcoming pattern is NOT the pattern most pro's are expecting to be our true winter pattern. The pattern I'm expecting later this season will have an anomalous trough over the Aleutians, a N-S oriented PNA ridge (mainly over western Canada), and a favorably positioned southeastern trough. The weakening of El Nino and full-scale SSW will get us there. But as I've said numerous times, this is a step-down pattern that will take time to evolve. Phase 1 will come the 1st two weeks of January. Phase 2 will come the third week. And the last phase will come week 4 to early February.

I'll have all the details in the next Mo Mo blog.

[Frank_Wx]

Honestly Frank I'm not sure we will need it. The main driver the last two years as we were headed into the second half of winter has been the -EPO compliments of the positive PDO and the trop pac forcing near the dateline. Although weaker than last year the PDO region is still mod warm and should def support a sustained negative EPO. Beginning Jan the EPO ridge should start to drive cold air into the east. Similar to last winter in the early going it comes and backs off and comes again and again relentlessly. Each time dropping SST off the coast and offering up opportunities for snow chances. As the snow pack builds in the NE further and further south each push of the cold air becomes less and less transient, because as they say of the cold and snow it breeds cold and snow.  Unlike last year where El Niño was in its infancy and the STJ had not yet really gotten going, this year we are all systems go regarding the STJ so hopefully we have more opportunity for more intense cyclogenisis and bigger snow accumulations vs the mild mod events created by the sfwe events frequented last year.  This year it looks way more likely we get the -AO. God willing if the stratosphere responds as is possible given current observations and modeling and we get the -NAO even if only for a 3-4 week period some time in late Jan or February  we really have a chance for some historic storms and snowfall totals. This is not just a snow weenies wish but a distinct possibility of becoming a reality given everything I've researched, what I see in the current medium and LR modeling, and what very smart individuals both amateur and pro mets have to say.  Again even without a neg NAO I am still very confident in above avg snowfall. I of course may run into a two by four up side the head as we head deeper into the season but I seriously doubt it.  I am very pleased with where we are right now.

I agree. I wasn't insinuating the +NAO is a bad thing. It would certainly help, but as long as there is an anomalous ridge in the west we should be ok.

[Frank_Wx]

Latest 18Z GEFS advertising PV displacement by Jan 10th. Right on par with my latest post. 

[Snow88]

Meteorologist DT

"*** ALERT ! MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE SEEMS LIKELY FOR JAN/ FEB 2016 --- my latest DEC 26 UPDATE!!!

QBO is collapsing ...the Polar Vortex is going to split and the pattern will get get nasty the east by Mid Jan"
https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/

[sroc4]

Honestly Frank I'm not sure we will need it. The main driver the last two years as we were headed into the second half of winter has been the -EPO compliments of the positive PDO and the trop pac forcing near the dateline. Although weaker than last year the PDO region is still mod warm and should def support a sustained negative EPO. Beginning Jan the EPO ridge should start to drive cold air into the east. Similar to last winter in the early going it comes and backs off and comes again and again relentlessly. Each time dropping SST off the coast and offering up opportunities for snow chances. As the snow pack builds in the NE further and further south each push of the cold air becomes less and less transient, because as they say of the cold and snow it breeds cold and snow.  Unlike last year where El Niño was in its infancy and the STJ had not yet really gotten going, this year we are all systems go regarding the STJ so hopefully we have more opportunity for more intense cyclogenisis and bigger snow accumulations vs the mild mod events created by the sfwe events frequented last year.  This year it looks way more likely we get the -AO. God willing if the stratosphere responds as is possible given current observations and modeling and we get the -NAO even if only for a 3-4 week period some time in late Jan or February  we really have a chance for some historic storms and snowfall totals. This is not just a snow weenies wish but a distinct possibility of becoming a reality given everything I've researched, what I see in the current medium and LR modeling, and what very smart individuals both amateur and pro mets have to say.  Again even without a neg NAO I am still very confident in above avg snowfall. I of course may run into a two by four up side the head as we head deeper into the season but I seriously doubt it.  I am very pleased with where we are right now.

I agree. I wasn't insinuating the +NAO is a bad thing. It would certainly help, but as long as there is an anomalous ridge in the west we should be ok.

i def didn't think you were insinuating that a pos NAO was a bad thing. I'm sorry if it came across that way. I simply want folks to understand that as long as we have that strong Neg EPO/+PNA signal, esp if it connects overtop with the Barents ridge like is shown in the LR ensemble forecasts, the cold air will make its push and winter weather opportunities will present themselves.  I also want folks to know that this IS NOT AND WILL NOT be like December. When I say transient I mean initially these cold shots drive in below normal temps and then moderate back to normal to slight above normal, not back to the SE death ridge and 10-30*f above normal....so long as the ridging holds in the NW CONUS And Western Canada/Alaska which looks to hold strong at least the first 10-14 d of Jan.

The -NAO would be icing on the cake. Think of this teleconnection as the back board for the cold air. Without it cold shots and energy associated with it come and go escaping north and east. Look at my signature at my snow totals from last year. That's what happens when we get snow in negative EPO but +NAO pattern small to moderate snow totals. With a -NAO the cold air kind of tumbles back on itself as it runs up against the block. That same idea leads to more intense cyclogenisis on or near the coast and Godzilla and/or Frankzilla Storm total potential (12-24"= Godzilla. 24+=Frankzilla)

no matter how it turns out this year will be very interesting to analyze retrospectively.

[NjWeatherGuy]

See a lot of cold in the future, but not many storm signals. Seems like a cold and dry pattern in early January. More wintry than this I guess.

[Frank_Wx]

This graphic made me pee myself

[amugs]

Amd here ya go peeps xmass belated present no may nay here okay!

[amugs]

Frank holy crap I was pulling the same map as u as we burn the wee hours run tigether,l
This is Frickin awesome
+wpo,-epo, + pna, - AO and NAO from the looks giddeee up or saddle up looks to be fine time with the pv splitting ,forecasted to by the end of next week

[amugs]

End of 0z gfs showing a big storm, like the signal for this time frame as well in fantasy land, coastal the originates along the gulf coast, very good set up. Good to see. Timing perfect for the mid Jan 180.

[Guest]

What ever happened to the threat during the time frame of January 1st to 3rd that sroc4 was interested in?

[Snow88]

0z Euro shows the trifecta. -NAO, -AO and +PNA.

[amugs]

What ever happened to the threat during the time frame of January 1st to 3rd that sroc4 was interested in?

It is there but off the coast right now - lots of time - bring the cold air and pattern first the we hammer out these details. A STJ and percolation in teh atmosphere things can change on a dime in the upcoming set up storm wise.

GFS

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