Re: Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

by **amugs** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:06 pm

CHRIST WHAT A JUMP NW ON THIS RUN

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:09 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE TO THE FN RECUE BOTH STORMS HERE - WOW!!

What time is the start

by **amugs** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:10 pm

UKIE, UKIE, UKIE!!!

by **amugs** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:10 pm

NW TREND CONTINUES LIKE...................MY RAP -PERS DELIGHT PEEPS!!

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:12 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE TO THE FN RECUE BOTH STORMS HERE - WOW!!

What time is the start

What do you mean by both storms? Is this not just tonight/tomorrow? I see its through Sun morning but I didn't think we were get anything else b4 Mon/Tues at earliest. If this is just this storm WOWZERS!

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:14 pm

If that verifies that's nearly 10 inches for NYC and almost Godzilla snows pts east wow, crazy SR models are on the bone this year!

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:23 pm

Anyone see benies last post on twitter wow at the energy on the map and trough even goes a bit neg for 1pm tomorrow. This copuld be a humdinger of a surprise and cause a lot of problems. Due to SR models being so onto Jonas I am thinking they have this one too. as LR are now moving into similar solutions.

by **crippo84** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:23 pm

In all honesty, does this storm have the potential for major flight impacts? I've invested a lot to go see my Carolina Panthers play in the Super Bowl this weekend. Flight out of Newark at 1:30 tomorrow afternoon. Does it seem reasonable to look into changing this to potentially tonight?

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:25 pm

crippo84 wrote:In all honesty, does this storm have the potential for major flight impacts? I've invested a lot to go see my Carolina Panthers play in the Super Bowl this weekend. Flight out of Newark at 1:30 tomorrow afternoon. Does it seem reasonable to look into changing this to potentially tonight?

I will leave that to the pros but I would pay close attention to this and at that time tomorrow could be quite a mess if this keeps its NW track.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE TO THE FN RECUE BOTH STORMS HERE - WOW!!

What time is the start

What do you mean by both storms? Is this not just tonight/tomorrow? I see its through Sun morning but I didn't think we were get anything else b4 Mon/Tues at earliest. If this is just this storm WOWZERS!

Careful Jman you may begetting a little ahead of yourself here. Some of that may be rain at the beginning for some and ratios may not be 10:1 for some. I'm hoping in the end you're right though

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:31 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE TO THE FN RECUE BOTH STORMS HERE - WOW!!

What time is the start

What do you mean by both storms? Is this not just tonight/tomorrow? I see its through Sun morning but I didn't think we were get anything else b4 Mon/Tues at earliest. If this is just this storm WOWZERS!

Careful Jman you may begetting a little ahead of yourself here. Some of that may be rain at the beginning for some and ratios may not be 10:1 for some. I'm hoping in the end you're right though

Hey give me half that it will still be cool, I cant imagine it being less than half. Of course each map is slightly different. Well its all mugs fault him and his rappers delight lol

by **amugs** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:43 pm

CP IS RIGHT WE START AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW PRETTY FAST - GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE 850'S CRASH AND WET BULB TEMPS CRASH. GET THAT LIGHT LAYER OF ICE UNDER NEATH AND ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE!

by **amugs** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:53 pm

by **amugs** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:54 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:55 pm

EURO up close...5-10 inches for NYC into LI, 3-6" just west of there

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f24

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f27

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f30

by **mako460** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:11 pm

Start and end times anybody???????????

by Guest Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO up close...5-10 inches for NYC into LI, 3-6" just west of there

Hey Frank. I just can't buy into this. 2-4" yes, but the boundary layer is really warm. I know it'll cool, but not fast enough to give us 4"+. No way!! Shocked

by **sroc4** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:13 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EURO up close...5-10 inches for NYC into LI, 3-6" just west of there

Hey Frank. I just can't buy into this. 2-4" yes, but the boundary layer is really warm. I know it'll cool, but not fast enough to give us 4"+. No way!!

Yes way

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO up close...5-10 inches for NYC into LI, 3-6" just west of there

Frank same question as syo, I know you know ur stuff but that 32 line is way north of NYC the whole time. Is this not the line we need to watch for temp profiles? Or is it the 850's and not surface that we need to look at?

by Guest Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:16 pm

Hey sroc buddy. FWIW (and it's probably not worth anything) Upton still as of 1:15 p.m. less than 12 hours from the start have us for no more than an inch of snow and only a 20% chance of snow past 9:00 a.m. tomorrow!!

by **amugs** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:24 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hey sroc buddy. FWIW (and it's probably not worth anything) Upton still as of 1:15 p.m. less than 12 hours from the start have us for no more than an inch of snow and only a 20% chance of snow past 9:00 a.m. tomorrow!!

JUST LIKE JONAS THEY ARE HANGIN IN THE GARAGE IN DENVER - CATCH THIS PAISAN!!

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:26 pm

850mb and 925mb are cold enough to support snow. The "stickage" factor may be poor early on, but as the day goes on surface temps should be cold enough to support accumulations on walkways and roads too. I think grassy surfaces are in line for a good 3-6" snowfall from NYC on east with isolated towns approaching 8 inches.

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:26 pm

NWS will probably wait till tonight, when its too friggin late. I can't get the upton snow page to load its odd.

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:28 pm

So mugs you think the rain will be a freezing rain issue? You mentioned ice under the snow. Sounds like a good day for a sick day cough lol

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:29 pm

The EURO snow map seems accurate to me.

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_tsnow_nj_11

by **jmanley32** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:850mb and 925mb are cold enough to support snow. The "stickage" factor may be poor early on, but as the day goes on surface temps should be cold enough to support accumulations on walkways and roads too. I think grassy surfaces are in line for a good 3-6" snowfall from NYC on east with isolated towns approaching 8 inches.

And you had no interest in this a day or two ago , lol its okay no one expected this, its amazing the SR models have been getting all the props.

by **sroc4** Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:29 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hey sroc buddy. FWIW (and it's probably not worth anything) Upton still as of 1:15 p.m. less than 12 hours from the start have us for no more than an inch of snow and only a 20% chance of snow past 9:00 a.m. tomorrow!!

James There update will come at 4pm. IT WILL CHANGE.

Jman looking at that line on a snapshot image is pointless with this set up esp the storm vista ones. They have no detail. There are dynamics in place that will have the entire column plenty cold with the exception of 10 feet above the surface. Plus here is the detailed look at the euro temp profile during the heaviest snow: 32-35* Can AND WILL accumulate. This is going to be fast and furious esp for LI. There will not be enough time for melting during the heaviest precip.

Images are QPF, surface, 925mb, 850mb

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_81

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_81

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_77

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_78

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_79

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_82

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_80

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_14

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 <a href=

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 8 Ecmwf_15

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