Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

WeatherBob wrote:Looks like a Binghamton to Albany major snow storm?

Yes also east central Pennsylvania. The CMC which was the furthest East shifted west while it still gives a nice front end snow it changes to rain through all of New Jersey and most of the Hudson Valley. The problem really isn't the low pressure track it's more the high pressure off the coast it's in a really bad spot

jimv45 wrote:Its getting funny Hyde now we want it to go further East!  But I do think we will see some snow!! how much?

It is funny Jim. We definitely need this to be weaker and go east. There will be front end snow to eventual rain but there could be a prolonged period of icing too. I'm not sure how quickly this arctic air will be scoured out at the surface in the valley. I really think this is going to be a mess of a storm.

Ukie still has a much stronger system that goes from Western North Carolina up into Quebec it looks like we get dry slotted and don't see too much precipitation. It has been very consistent along with the euro in showing the strongest solution

It sounds like everything is still on the table Al, mostly rain, mostly frozen and everything in between. I don't think we nail this down until the 12z runs tomorrow. If then.

An all snow solution for even the NW suburbs, doesn't seem in the cards and it never really has for this one. I'm still hoping for 6 somehow and I'll take it and run.

Thinking right now 3 to 5 to slop to rain, CP. Once again, the models dancing all over the place.A shift east will help us get to that 6 you mentioned.It will be a real mess up here with that slop and ice.

Canadian snow map

Frank_Wx wrote:Canadian snow map

Have not seen a scenario like that in a long time. Jackpot Central PA, NY, New England.

Frank_Wx wrote:

Wow, that is really west of GFS and NAM. Barely gives me 3 inches. My buddy's place near Cooperstown would get slammed with this.

12z CMC is depicting crippling ice storm for a big portion of interior Northeast. I'm traveling to NH on Monday for a couple days to see the parents & two words come to mind: power outages

Euro held its ground

1st Call "Impact" Map

My 1st call is essentially a blend of all models. Since we still have disagreement with the EURO/UKIE vs GFS/CMC it's difficult to lean one way or the other.

So it's a safe bet to say this will be a all rain event along the jersey coast? No chance of a further east track?

Reminds me of a 2009 storm, yuck

Already starting to lose interest in this one again.

I'm more concerned about NYC getting to 0 than I am about this storm/slop/rain/mess

Teetghhuhnbhj wrote:So it's a safe bet to say this will be a all rain event along the jersey coast? No chance of a further east track?

Doubtful

Got it. Thanks Frank. Still can't believe in 36 hours time we will go from a real feel of 15 below to almost 50 degrees. Crazy.

So sad with all this fresh cold air we get a snow to rain event 

NAM GIVES A WACKY SOLUTION - HR 48-63 - 32* LINE HOLDS IN NNJ AND WE ARE ALL SNOW N AND W O FTHIS, THEN HR 66 IT MOVES THAT LINE UP TOWARDS THE NY STATE BORER THEN HR 69 IT FLOODS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH RAIN AND WARMTH AND THEN AT HR 75 IT CRASHES THE 540 LINE AND 0 LINE TO THE COAST OF NJ.

HR 78-81 IT DROPS THE 32* LINE BACK INTO NYC AND BRINGS A DECENT BACK END SNOW ??

OKAY NAM REALLY!

ONE THING I THINK IT IS RECOGNIZING IS THE STUBBORNNESS OF THE COLD AIR HANGING ON FOR QUITE SOMETIME IN NNJ AND NORTH AND WEST.

THIS IS NOT ALL SNOW - GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE IN THIS RUN AS 2M TEMPS JUST N & W OF THE CITY HOVER AT FREEZING MARK ALMOST THE ENTIRE STORM AND THEN GIVES US A GOOD BACK END THUMP.

NAM POPS THE LP OFF THE JERSEY COAST AROUND PT PLEASANT AND THEN TAKES IT NE SOUTH OF CLI . EASTERN LI FROM THE LOOKS - MOREE AST SOLUTION - WOULD BE A LOT OF ICE FOR NNJ AREAS AND LHV BUT ALL SNOW FOR EPA AND HV

Leave it to the NAM mugs for that whacky scenario. How funny if it nails it after the great job it did with Jonas.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Leave it to the NAM mugs for that whacky scenario. How funny if it nails it after the great job it did with Jonas.

CP I WAS JUST THINKING THAT BUT WITH THIS SET UP WHO THE H KNOWS !!!