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Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

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Post by algae888 Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:05 pm

Ukie still has a much stronger system that goes from Western North Carolina up into Quebec it looks like we get dry slotted and don't see too much precipitation. It has been very consistent along with the euro in showing the strongest solution
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:23 pm

It sounds like everything is still on the table Al, mostly rain, mostly frozen and everything in between. I don't think we nail this down until the 12z runs tomorrow. If then.

An all snow solution for even the NW suburbs, doesn't seem in the cards and it never really has for this one. I'm still hoping for 6 somehow and I'll take it and run.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:31 pm

Thinking right now 3 to 5 to slop to rain, CP. Once again, the models dancing all over the place.A shift east will help us get to that 6 you mentioned.It will be a real mess up here with that slop and ice.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:44 pm

Canadian snow map

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 12717442_1068982203153958_2994087788043574169_n

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Canadian snow map

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 12717442_1068982203153958_2994087788043574169_n

Have not seen a scenario like that in a long time. Jackpot Central PA, NY, New England.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:50 pm

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 12710911_1182394648456348_6694729008016248952_o

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Post by docstox12 Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:53 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 12710911_1182394648456348_6694729008016248952_o

Wow, that is really west of GFS and NAM. Barely gives me 3 inches. My buddy's place near Cooperstown would get slammed with this.
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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:15 pm

12z CMC is depicting crippling ice storm for a big portion of interior Northeast. I'm traveling to NH on Monday for a couple days to see the parents & two words come to mind: power outages
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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:25 pm

Euro held its ground

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:27 pm

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 Ecmwf_92

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:41 pm

1st Call "Impact" Map

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 1st_call_feb_13th

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:45 pm

My 1st call is essentially a blend of all models. Since we still have disagreement with the EURO/UKIE vs GFS/CMC it's difficult to lean one way or the other.

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Post by Teetghhuhnbhj Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:51 pm

So it's a safe bet to say this will be a all rain event along the jersey coast? No chance of a further east track?

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:53 pm

Reminds me of a 2009 storm, yuck
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:23 pm

Already starting to lose interest in this one again.

I'm more concerned about NYC getting to 0 than I am about this storm/slop/rain/mess
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:23 pm

@Teetghhuhnbhj wrote:So it's a safe bet to say this will be a all rain event along the jersey coast? No chance of a further east track?

Doubtful

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Post by Teetghhuhnbhj Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:26 pm

Got it. Thanks Frank. Still can't believe in 36 hours time we will go from a real feel of 15 below to almost 50 degrees. Crazy.

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Post by frank 638 Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:57 pm

So sad with all this fresh cold air we get a snow to rain event  Sad 😢

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:45 pm

NAM GIVES A WACKY SOLUTION - HR 48-63 - 32* LINE HOLDS IN NNJ AND WE ARE ALL SNOW N AND W O FTHIS, THEN HR 66 IT MOVES THAT LINE UP TOWARDS THE NY STATE BORER THEN HR 69 IT FLOODS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH RAIN AND WARMTH AND THEN AT HR 75 IT CRASHES THE 540 LINE AND 0 LINE TO THE COAST OF NJ.

HR 78-81 IT DROPS THE 32* LINE BACK INTO NYC AND BRINGS A DECENT BACK END SNOW ??

OKAY NAM REALLY!

ONE THING I THINK IT IS RECOGNIZING IS THE STUBBORNNESS OF THE COLD AIR HANGING ON FOR QUITE SOMETIME IN NNJ AND NORTH AND WEST.


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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:46 pm

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 Image.thumb.png.6c409b98e921a1f73228e11e04bd5096

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:47 pm

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm  - Page 6 Image.thumb.png.44283061c1567e73dced30d81e564056

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:48 pm

THIS IS NOT ALL SNOW - GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE IN THIS RUN AS 2M TEMPS JUST N & W OF THE CITY HOVER AT FREEZING MARK ALMOST THE ENTIRE STORM AND THEN GIVES US A GOOD BACK END THUMP.

NAM POPS THE LP OFF THE JERSEY COAST AROUND PT PLEASANT AND THEN TAKES IT NE SOUTH OF CLI . EASTERN LI FROM THE LOOKS - MOREE AST SOLUTION - WOULD BE A LOT OF ICE FOR NNJ AREAS AND LHV BUT ALL SNOW FOR EPA AND HV


Last edited by amugs on Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:53 pm

City and East not your storm or south so cheer the NWNJ, LHV and EPA peeps on for this one that they get their due!!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Feb 13, 2016 3:59 pm

Leave it to the NAM mugs for that whacky scenario. How funny if it nails it after the great job it did with Jonas.
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Post by amugs Sat Feb 13, 2016 4:01 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Leave it to the NAM mugs for that whacky scenario. How funny if it nails it after the great job it did with Jonas.

CP I WAS JUST THINKING THAT BUT WITH THIS SET UP WHO THE H KNOWS !!!

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