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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event Empty January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:34 pm

In the long range thread we have been talking about 2 waves that could bring snow to the area. The first wave has timing that would impact us late Thursday into Friday. This is expected to be a light to possibly moderate event depending on how close to the coast the surface low can get. Here is the latest SREFS showing a 2-4" type snowfall for the area.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event IMG_7312.thumb.GIF.a20288582bf1c367973692666f5242c8

We will continue talking about the 2nd wave in the long range thread. If that storm were to happen it would not be until Sunday.


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Post by frank 638 Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:44 pm

Frank thanks for ur post and map u put up I will be happy to have minor event for Friday .I am not giving up for the 2 nd storm weather model is always changing hopefully for Sunday we will see a turn for the better

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:46 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IF the latest JMA that Mugs posted in the LR were to verify verbatim (which I know is a stretch) that would give coastal areas 15-20 mm of liquid. That equals .6-.75" qpf. With the temps we are expecting therefore leading to higher ratios this should translate to a 7-10" event for the coastal areas no????

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:48 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but IF the latest JMA that Mugs posted in the LR were to verify verbatim (which I know is a stretch) that would give coastal areas 15-20 mm of liquid.  That equals .6-.75" qpf.  With the temps we are expecting therefore leading to higher ratios this should translate to a 7-10" event for the coastal areas no????
I had the same thought. These things always seem to over perform (the smaller events) so we will see.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:50 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but IF the latest JMA that Mugs posted in the LR were to verify verbatim (which I know is a stretch) that would give coastal areas 15-20 mm of liquid.  That equals .6-.75" qpf.  With the temps we are expecting therefore leading to higher ratios this should translate to a 7-10" event for the coastal areas no????

Correct!

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:52 pm

Frank, is that an individual member? Because I've looked at the means and they look nothing like that. The 21z runs are just coming out, so I don't know what that is haha I'm confuzzled (not that it's hard to do to my simple mind ahaha)

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:53 pm

A lot of scenarios still on the table here folks. The best case would be wave 1 gives us a moderate event on Friday. The wave then either moves out quickly enough or wave 2 slows down to allow it to have enough space to amplify and move up the coast.
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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:56 pm

JMA actually does a real nice job of showing why we'll either have wave 1 or wave 2, and noth both. The black circle is the upper energy associated with wave 2. Notice how it's connected to the trough over the east. The GFS holds this energy back in the west instead of progressing it east with wave 1.

Upper energy is elongated over the front-side of the trough. That's normally not a good signal for a big storm, rather a light to moderate event. Most models agree with the JMA than the GFS with the handling of the upper energy.

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event Jma10


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:57 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:57 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:A lot of scenarios still on the table here folks. The best case would be wave 1 gives us a moderate event on Friday. The wave then either moves out quickly enough or wave 2 slows down to allow it to have enough space to amplify and move up the coast.

if wave 1 produces a warning level snow ill b happy, a big storm on sunday would b even better but we have to see.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:59 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Frank, is that an individual member? Because I've looked at the means and they look nothing like that. The 21z runs are just coming out, so I don't know what that is haha I'm confuzzled (not that it's hard to do to my simple mind ahaha)

Don't think so. Here is another map of the SREF mean from SV

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event 586b058172e3d

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:08 pm

Oh it IS 21z!! You and your subscriptions that get you your Intel before anybody else, and I'm stuck with the EWALL tongue tongue

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:09 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Oh it IS 21z!! You and your subscriptions that get you your Intel before anybody else, and I'm stuck with the EWALL tongue tongue

Haha, weather models galore on my computer.

00z NAM coming in soon

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Oh it IS 21z!! You and your subscriptions that get you your Intel before anybody else, and I'm stuck with the EWALL tongue tongue

Haha, weather models galore on my computer.

00z NAM coming in soon

Oh believe me, I know the struggles lmao that's why I have a 27" monitor.......maximize the number of windows I can have simultaneously viewable ahahaha

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:43 pm

nam on the first wave...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event Nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 02, 2017 9:45 pm

nam on the first wave...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event Namconus_asnow_neus_29
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:00 pm

@algae888 wrote:nam on the first wave...
January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event Namconus_asnow_neus_29

if thats all we get and no second wave...wow

yes i do see it hasn't moved completely through, but in its wake its a few inches at best maybe 3 or 4 with ratios, is there anyway this 1st wave could intensify before coming up? Giving us a big strom even if wave 2 doesn't work out?
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:11 pm

12K NAM a few inches

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event IMG_7313.PNG.8f246c44f41149ac4048978d51b96511

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event IMG_7314.thumb.PNG.a05e8996719e1ec56f8e1da1dad4b390

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event IMG_7315.thumb.PNG.ac55f30f75213357365d81d53ff14f58

still more if extrapolate out past hr 84

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:12 pm

JMAN NAM only goes out to 84 hours Sunday Second wave is 120 hours out

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:32 pm

@amugs wrote:JMAN NAM only goes out to 84 hours Sunday Second wave is 120 hours out

im aware but frank said we wont get both or its unlikely so if this 1st happens then im assuming chances for the second are slim to none. I just realized with those two put together that the J off and my usernam backwards is NAM. Take the N off and its JMA. Ha
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:00 pm

looks like 00z gfs is going to capitalize on wave 2 still, wave 1 miss to south hr 84.
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Post by Math23x7 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:08 pm

I just checked the 21Z SREF plumes for LaGuardia Airport for Friday morning. Several plumes have temperatures in the low 40s during that time. Several more have it in the mid-upper 30s. Now, as far as snow goes, only a handful have measurable snowfall at the end of the run (which would be 7 AM Friday), two have two inches of snow, one has 5.1", the rest have less than 0.4."

Of course, which each SREF run that comes out, we should have better sampling.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:12 pm

well gfs says no snow for u, wave 1 or 2
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:14 pm

Wave 1 might be the real deal

Wave 2 is done
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:14 pm

thats crazy how far south the gfs has heavy snowfall.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:14 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:well gfs says no snow for u, wave 1 or 2

Wave 1 went west
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