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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Empty Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:36 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:where did everyone go?

Burnt out from flip flopping model runs! Very Happy   I'm hoping for just enough snow to enjoy a white birthday! I think I will see 2"-3" here in NNJ. I finally have a break from the rat race tonight, so I am going to look at the short range models... hopefully they will give us a few inches!

I hope you have a wonderful Birthday!! party party it would be nice to get a few inches and maybe a snow day....terrible mother that I am...I love when my son is home...lol..I do not remember my mother ever wishing for a snow day!! anyway...have fun with the models..I am sipping tea and waiting for the posts...nothing good on Tv....
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:44 pm

0z Nam running
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:47 pm

I updated the scroll. No sense in making a snow map for this event. The only negative is the steadiest snow is modeled to come during morning rush hour. I think coastal NJ and parts of LI stand the best shot of seeing 3"+, but that depends on the snowfall rates. Right now I don't see sufficient evidence to suggest there will be periods of heavy snow. Latest SREFS also cut back for those N&W of NYC, so this could be more of a C-2" ordeal for you.


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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:50 pm

SREF plume for ISP just updated, mean is 5" now
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:55 pm

@aiannone wrote:SREF plume for ISP just updated, mean is 5" now

Don't think so. Looks like 2 inches.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:57 pm

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Captur10
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:57 pm

SREFS

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 586da804c434b

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:01 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Captur10

Does this combine the 2nd system? We only want up until 12z or 18z Friday

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:05 pm

NAM coming in healthy

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:05 pm

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 586da9f66b418

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:07 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Captur10

Does this combine the 2nd system? We only want up until 12z or 18z Friday

Looking at the bottom it appears thats several days including sat and part sun.  I didn't think sref went out that far.

And I'll take the yellow 20 inch one lol


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:07 pm

Congrats Governor Christie

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 586daa30d8b62

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:08 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Captur10

Does this combine the 2nd system? We only want up until 12z or 18z Friday

Looking at the bottom it appears thats several days including sat and part sun.  I didn't think sref went out that far.

Yea, they go out about 4.5 days.

So 1st event is 2" and 2nd event is another 2-3" on the SREFS.


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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Captur10

Does this combine the 2nd system? We only want up until 12z or 18z Friday

Ahh, you are right. I can't believe I missed that. My bad. Yes then as you said, mean is 2.5" for this storm.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:08 pm

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 586daa8d8e659

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 586daaa7aa90f

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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:09 pm

@aiannone wrote:January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Captur10

That weenie member (ARP6) for LaGuardia Airport gives 4.26" of snow Friday morning and 10.77" of snow Friday night into Saturday for a combined 15.03" of snow. And I see that that member has over 20" of snow total, which to be honest I am not expecting. It is interesting to note, however, that I have plans to visit relatives in Islip Saturday afternoon so I am monitoring these two waves carefully.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:10 pm

NAM looks good. Since they have a wet bias, I would still peg this a 1-3" event with more for coastal NJ and LI.

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:NAM looks good. Since they have a wet bias, I would still peg this a 1-3" event with more for coastal NJ and LI.

Very true. I'll take it though. Will definitely be an event that will call for a salt and scrape.
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:29 pm

Nam totals for Friday afternoon gives me about 2" at 10:1

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Namcon10




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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Math23x7 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:10 pm

0Z RGEM is a coating at best.....

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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:14 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:0Z RGEM is a coating at best.....

Model mayhem lol
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:20 pm

January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event - Page 6 Bastar10
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Post by Armando Salvadore Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:24 pm

Ratios won't be higher than 15:1 i can tell you that, soundings do not indicate at all that the ratios would get above 20:1. The dendrite growth zone is pretty deep, so there will be a nice deep layer for dendrites to grow. Max temp within the profile supports around 15:1, but would like to see more vertical velocity for this. Not too shabby of a light event. Agree with Frank's call.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:27 pm

Armando. Maybe in a lull you can do a write up with graphics to educate me on reading soundings better. I'm headed to bed tonight but if you ever have the time it would be awesome.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Armando Salvadore Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:30 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Armando. Maybe in a lull you can do a write up with graphics to educate me on reading soundings better. I'm headed to bed tonight but if you ever have the time it would be awesome.

You sure bet i can teach ya! When we reach the winter hiatus of Jan, that is the best chance to do so!
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