Friday, March 10th "Wave 1" Minor Snow Event

15Z SREFS have backed off Wave 1...

UKMET for Wave 1 has .75" for NYC. That is 3-6" of snow.

It looks like models backed off drastically on Wave 2, but they are beginning to like Wave 3 a lot.

Euro shows 6+ for NYC north with wave 3

Nam is good for NYC south

Para Nam is good for NYC north

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

amugs wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO for wave 1 is stronger/further north. Looks like the GFS.

GFS rules Northern Stream waves - and I said it will make a north trend today as teh EURO caves to this idea - a possible another 25-50 mile bump north I think is in play to teh final solution

GFS rules nothing MUGS...lol  Last Fridays clipper was all GFS showing a nice 1-3/2-4" until it finally caved to the euros idea of south and Nada.  Euro on occasion had a few runs showing some precip into the area, but overall it destroyed the GFS.  We need another day to call anything a true trend.  After all we still have too much time.  With these systems where a trend of 25miles means the diff between a few inches to nada last minute trends with in 12-24hrs is still very much in play.  Esp with the energy still in the Pac.  

Over the last three years the EURO has not done well with Northern Waves - that is my point here - GFS verification is so much better with these  types of storms. EURO is better with Southern Waves.

This appears to be a Pac derived piece of energy Mugs not N stream.  This is not a clipper that dives out of Canada but rather one that enters in from the Pac Ocean that then rides along the Frontal boundary established compliments of the TPV sitting in SE Canada and may or may not interact with the N branch.  









The second question is if a surface LP develops from an interaction where does it come off the coast?  If it passes over or immediately just S of LI then temp issues esp from the surface to about 925mb may be an issue with a SW flow out ahead until the LP pulls east and the winds can swing around to NW.  However as long as it passes S of LI, but not too far south, temps should not be much of an issue.  The more interaction between the N and the Pac branches the better chance we have to have the mean trough dig just enough to force it into the Ohio Valey and consequently the surface LP move through the area on a slightly more W/SW to E/NE trajectory and the better the baroclinically enhanced lift we will see.  If there is little to no interactions and the energy remains more strung out and QPF is light, boundary layer temps then will be an issue, QPF light, and the LP trajectory will be more NW/W to SE/E which will not yield much in the way of accumulation.  Dew points look to be in the twenties.  This appears pretty unified among models, so if the QPF is there the column will cool quickly and accumulations will occur even if its during daytime hours.  The 850mb temps look to be -5 to -9 throughout at least that's how it seems modeled right now.  Bottom line is we need to see some interactions with the two branches over or around the Ohio valley area to get accumulations.  The good news is is the trend on the euro since 12z Yesterday is to have some form of interaction, and the GFS and NAM, and CMC, also have some form of interaction.  With that said......

(For you weather mom)

WE TRACK!!!!  

So is this a maddone yet? Do I need to go pull the Toro outta the shed?

Frank_Wx wrote:UKMET for Wave 1 has .75" for NYC. That is 3-6" of snow.

You can see the branches are trying to interact. This is key. I don't have the next frame

The "Not A Model" (as it has been called in the past on this forum) shows a nice snow event for Friday in NYC.

Latest 18z gfs looks weaker and quite warm at the surface with Wave 1. I have a feeling we're far from the final solution, but I would put us in the C-2" range at this juncture

Frank_Wx wrote:Latest 18z gfs looks weaker and quite warm at the surface with Wave 1. I have a feeling we're far from the final solution, but I would put us in the C-2" range at this juncture  

Honestly the 18z GFS isn't exactly the go to model for surface temps and dew points.  And if you look 925mbstarts at -2 to -3 and 850 at -3 to -4 at the start of precip with a surface temp of 40 but temps are crashing fast.  Almost time for the hi res to take over.  VV on the NAM look impressive for a period of time; granted its a narrow band.  We are def far from a soln.    

Snow88 wrote:Nam is good for NYC south

Para Nam is good for NYC north

Can anyone say Long Island Bullseye!!

weatherwatchermom wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:So is this a maddone yet? Do I need to go pull the Toro outta the shed?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NOT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE....THIS IS PJ INSIDE OUT time... A NO CHANGES MOMENT!!

Nope, have to have it ready and fueled up in advance when you have 20 driveways or so to do (depending on who calls) and start at FIVE AM

Wave 3 is gonna bring the goods...

BRING IT ON!

Wave 1 is going to offer sufficient vorticity maxima at 700mb looking at the Omega combined with H5 max swinging through. Going to most likely be a narrow strip of accumulating snow probably more confined towards I-76 give or take 20 miles maybe north and south of that line, thursday night into friday. Not to mention, the 250mb upper level jet axis/divergence appears favorable for more potent (using the term lightly) for accumulating snow north of the boundary layer. As for weekend, still think its too early to call off, but the confluence over New England (TPV) may not push out in time enough. OR, the energy as the EURO depicts is weak and basically gets sheared and we're left cold and dry. As for next week, i honestly am liking something legitimate as we see a transition phase of the NAO (- --> +) in conjunction with a trough off the west coast allowing a ridge axis to push poleward and a carving trough is a result of it. Lots of activity going on!

18Z GFS looked nice but still concerned about the March sun.

PS: Tom (NjWeatherGuy), where are you? I would love to hear your insight regarding the next week.

Unless it snows hard you have that March sun now that will melt most of what falls in the streets

Surprised nobody has posted about the NAM. 12k is North But 4K is juicy 3k coming in now.