March 14, 2017 Roidzilla 1st Call Snow Map / Synopsis

Wow so highest looks like on these runs is 24 to 28 in hi results wow.

Frank, RGEM for jersey shore?

Precip maps look very nice for NYC on the rgem



Looks like it changes to rain at the end after a good dumping of snow

New RPM

If a changeover to rain does occur in NYC, I am thinking it's light and 1-2 hours at most. By then there could be 15" of snow on the ground.

Hey all sorry I won't mske to chat on road and I don't habe pw for phone I'll try find and do on phone if I can

RPM shows over 15 inches for NYC west and 12 inches east of there

Frank_Wx wrote:

This has my full snowfall endorsement. ;-)

God Almighty... this QPF is in a 3 HOUR stretch!

Alright here is my take on the storm and accumulations. I do not have the training or experience of many on this board, so take this with a grain of salt, but its my best effort given what I do know, have learned, and have experienced in the past. Feel free to rip it apart. It's just my thoughts:

Snow should begin falling in central and northern New Jersey between midnight and 3 a.m. and will quickly pick up in intensity by 5 or 6 a.m.  The snow will become heavy at times by daybreak and will be accompanied by strong gusty east/northeast winds.  At times in the middle of tomorrow morning we may have snowfall rates of 2-3” per hour (or a bit more) with 20-30 mph winds and gusts over 40 mph. Further east winds may top 30 mph sustained with gusts to near 60 mph.  These winds combined with prodigious snowfall rates will create virtual “whiteout” conditions at times tomorrow morning.  The snow will continue into the afternoon.

There are two key variables in terms of snowfall amounts and storm duration. One is the speed of the storm. Originally this storm was modeled to last until after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Some models still hint at this longer duration. BUT . . . my experience is these storms accelerate and move quickly up the coast. I believe the models currently showing the snow ending by mid-to-late afternoon tomorrow are accurate. This doesn’t mean some snow showers or squalls couldn’t affect the area in the evening and overnight tomorrow night, but the MAIN area of snow should start to wind down during the afternoon hours.  With the winds behind this system there will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow during the storm and after the storm into Wednesday morning.  Another factor is that this storm will likely hug tight to the coast. Just how tight will determine whether rain mixes in at the Jersey Shore and whether sleet mixes in here. A couple hours of sleet mixing in will suppress totals. I think some mixing is possible even in interior NJ, even though this will be mainly a snow event. At the Jersey Shore I think there will be a lot of sleet and maybe some rain which will keep totals somewhat in check there.

Considering these variables here are the amounts I expect:

Central New Jersey (including Somerville) roughly from I-195 north to I-80:  generally 10”-15” with isolated amounts of 16-20” in areas of heavier banding.
Northwest New Jersey (Warren and Sussex) and north of I-80 into the Hudson Valley: generally 15”-20” with isolated 20-24” spots.
Jersey Shore (Monmouth and Ocean): generally 6”-10” with sleet and rain likely to mix in. Similar situation on Long Island I think.

Just my thoughts.

Snow88 wrote:RPM shows over 15 inches for NYC west and 12 inches east of there

No sarcasm here. As much as this sucks to say congratulations to all you N and w folks. You deserve it. As far as LI goes a full week of hype and tracking looks to bring me my 3rd largest storm of this winter. Sucks. Huge letdown when I was looking at a hecs/becs 2 days ago. Enjoy!!

NAM was right all along.

if you want to laugh and haven't seen this yet, it's a much WATCH

Can anyone tell me what the weather will be like the day after our storm. I'm just wondering if it's going to be real windy or will things have calmed down by then. I just have blowing snow when the wind is blowing all over the place. Thanks.

SoulSingMG wrote:God Almighty... this QPF is in a 3 HOUR stretch!

And this is why someone in our area will most likely get a foot or more of snow in a 3 hour period.

Look at the time and I've done nothing today or for the past 5 days really. Sad but no cure, I try.

SoulSingMG wrote:God Almighty... this QPF is in a 3 HOUR stretch!

No fin way 16 inches imby in 3 to 5 hrs omg im.get a full on blizzard suit today that's go.b insane!!!

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:God Almighty... this QPF is in a 3 HOUR stretch!

And this is why someone in our area will most likely get a foot or more of snow in a 3 hour period.

Look at the time and I've done nothing today or for the past 5 days really. Sad but no cure, I try.

I was JUST thinking the same CP hahaha. What are we gonna do after the storm? I'll be going thru postpartum but maybe I'll actually get something done...?

GFS shifted slightly east and has a huge hit for the area

Snowmaps coming soon

Omg gfs no changeover looks insane snow rates!

I can't wait to see snow maps

12 + for NYC area on the GFS

Have any of the models slowed down at all?

Near 20 inches nyc!!

toss it?

Lee Goldberg just post a future cast video that shows snow clearing out after 8pm tomorrow night!! Is that possible?

Nevermind his post was from yesterday lol!!