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May 2017 Observations & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon May 01, 2017 8:03 am

Welcome to May, everyone.

It looks like precipitation from normal in April finished around normal, with only central NJ finishing above normal due to those severe storms that passed through the area late Friday night.

May 2017 Observations & Discussions GrowPDeptNRCC

Temperatures finished above normal for much of the area.

May 2017 Observations & Discussions 7dTDeptNRCC

It is looking like a dreary start to the month of May. And the long range is not promising if you're looking for sustained warmer weather. High latitude blocking is expected to develop and a trough will cut-off over the Northeast.

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Test8

Look for storms to pass through the area late tonight / early tomorrow. Heavy rain is likely on Friday. Then thereafter temps will remain below average due to the cut-off trough settling in.

Meh.










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Post by jmanley32 Mon May 01, 2017 4:19 pm

Hey Frank and everyone, I know I have been off for quite a while.  Just been very busy and weather has been boring.  Frank it needs to warm up for good, its may already!! Meh is right.  Will it be raining over this weekend too? I saw the hurricane confidence index, trying to get my attention? LOL, havent even looked into this season much yet, last I heard it was going to be normal to above, with some heavy hitters possibly coming close or making landfall in the US.
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Post by amugs Mon May 01, 2017 4:54 pm

Look at this temp from the winds off the ocean by Sandy Hook, jacket weather for sure

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Img_2032

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Post by amugs Mon May 01, 2017 4:56 pm

Grenlqnd Blockmcomjng in big time = cool onshore flow for mid Atlantic through NE more so NJ on up If this was Late Jan into Feb snow geese would be flapping their wings like crazy!!

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Img_2033

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Post by amugs Tue May 02, 2017 7:03 am

Would you look at this block and set up!! Ugghhh a rainmaker in the works and cool and dreary weather incoming this weekend and the trough inessential looks to stay fir the first half of the month.

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Img_2034

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue May 02, 2017 7:13 am

@amugs wrote:Would you look at this block and set up!! Ugghhh a rainmaker in the works and cool and dreary weather incoming this weekend and the trough inessential looks to stay fir the first half of the month.

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Img_2034
What a waste of an epic pattern setup. The past few years we've had bad timing with a prolonged NAO block. During the winter its been elusive, then it finally develops just in time for spring. Very frustrating!
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Post by essexcountypete Tue May 02, 2017 10:08 am

Any ideas on what the second half of the month will look like and if we'll get back to something more seasonal?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue May 02, 2017 11:27 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Hey Frank and everyone, I know I have been off for quite a while.  Just been very busy and weather has been boring.  Frank it needs to warm up for good, its may already!! Meh is right.  Will it be raining over this weekend too? I saw the hurricane confidence index, trying to get my attention? LOL, havent even looked into this season much yet, last I heard it was going to be normal to above, with some heavy hitters possibly coming close or making landfall in the US.

@essexcountypete wrote:Any ideas on what the second half of the month will look like and if we'll get back to something more seasonal?

I will lump these 2 questions together. Asking pretty much the same thing.

The seasonal or warmer than normal pattern is not likely to return until the NAO block breaks down. Obviously there will be multiple days of seasonal temperatures the first half of May, but overall, it should be below average with several rain events. The Ensembles hint somewhat of the block breaking down the 3rd week of May. I would not expect much in the way of above normal temps until then.

Precipitation wise, the weekend looks OK. Friday seems to be a washout. Saturday overcast with rain showers at times. Sunday is the best day but likely to remain cool.

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Post by rb924119 Tue May 02, 2017 6:25 pm

Don't forget about some elevation flakes north and west!!!!!! No, that's NOT a joke lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed May 03, 2017 11:20 am

Friday looks like a complete washout. Well over an inch of rain.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed May 03, 2017 8:42 pm

currently 57 and but windy.....us moms are freezing at the field watching our kids BB game....
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Post by Dunnzoo Wed May 03, 2017 9:04 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:currently 57 and but windy.....us moms are freezing at the field watching our kids BB game....

aaaah baseball on a spring night! Always feels colder!

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Post by amugs Wed May 03, 2017 9:23 pm

Well would u lok at this, RB and Apps mountains may see some elevation snows with tjis means set up crazy for May but as JB has pointed out it happened in 1976 and 77. Hmm those were little ice age years as per time magazines cover LOL!
May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gefs_z10
This would have given us a KU storm and a prolonged one at that. A boy can dream.

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Post by amugs Wed May 03, 2017 9:32 pm

Tjis is full for May then we turn the corner as we head to the last 1/3 of the month. Just in time for bbcue and bikinis LOL

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Img_2035
May 2017 Observations & Discussions Img_2036
May 2017 Observations & Discussions Img_2037

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Post by Dunnzoo Wed May 03, 2017 9:54 pm

@amugs wrote:Well would u lok at this, RB and Apps mountains may see some elevation snows with tjis means set up crazy for May but as JB has pointed out it happened in 1976 and 77. Hmm those were little ice age years as per time magazines cover LOL!
May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gefs_z10
This would have given us a KU storm and a prolonged one at that. A boy can dream.

Of course it is going to be cooler next week, I have tix to another Mets night game! Getting used to packing the winter gear when I go! Razz

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Post by Fededle22 Wed May 03, 2017 10:23 pm

From what I remember, the past few years we have had hot summers with below normal rain levels making for perfect times to play in the sun but had to deal with cooler winter and springs with lots of rain. I would buy into that every year. I know that April finished above normal temps but I would argue that it was due to a few hot days that prolonged heat. We have had cool, cloud cover days more often than not in April that made NJ feel more like Seattle. If Frank is right and we have to wait until the third week of May before we get that than not much we can do but the weather really has sucked as of late. I am expecting 60 people for our Cinco de Mayo party this Saturday and the weather is not cooperating.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 04, 2017 8:46 am

Absolute soaker tomorrow

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6

Lingering rain showers into Saturday with cool temps

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10







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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 04, 2017 8:48 am

Pretty cool. Too bad it is not winter. This -NAO block is INSANE! Temps will not get very warm next week as long as this is around..

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_25

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 04, 2017 8:48 am

Another trough over the area next weekend

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_42

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu May 04, 2017 11:48 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Absolute soaker tomorrow

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6

Lingering rain showers into Saturday with cool temps

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10


Frank what's the start time



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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 04, 2017 12:39 pm

Start time appears to be between 2-3am.

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Post by essexcountypete Thu May 04, 2017 1:25 pm

Thanks for the updates Frank!

I organize my team's yearly trip to an Ultimate Frisbee tournament and camping trip in East Hampton the weekend before Memorial Day every year, and as far back as I can remember it's always cold and/or rainy for our trip.

I'm really hoping the block starts to breaks down and we get some decent warmth by the 20th.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu May 04, 2017 2:49 pm

I locked the long range thread (for now).

During "quiet" season it's best to keep everything in one thread. Banter thread will remain open, obviously Smile


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Post by frank 638 Thu May 04, 2017 7:13 pm

hey frank thanks for the update why is everytime we get into spring we have to deal with rainy raw chilly conditions then we get into fall its warm dry sunny days i dont get i guess global warming

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Post by billg315 Thu May 04, 2017 10:29 pm

Just checked out the forecast for next week. All I'll say is: Ewwww. Mad
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