December Obs and Discussion

If you look at sroc’s post* from a couple days ago which I “ditto’d“ this shift is not surprising. There has been a trend back n&w in the final 48 hours with a lot of coastal systems this year. And as I pointed out, it is not uncommon to have a storm modeled 10 days out,lose it at 6 days out, and find it again at 3. And here we are. If I can get 2-4” from this I’ll give Long Island their 4”-plus and still be happy. *(Sroc’s post was in Banter Xmas evening).

12z GFS did not have much. 12z Canadian hits LI pretty nicely.

RGEM is 2-4 inches for LI and 1-3 everyone else

Frank - a new thread for this??

@amugs wrote:Frank - a new thread for this??

I said earlier let's just keep it in this thread. I rather start a new thread for the January 4th storm but we'll wait another 2 days before doing so.

Is this Friday night into Saturday, or during the day Saturday?

@Sparky Sparticles wrote:Is this Friday night into Saturday, or during the day Saturday?

During the day Saturday

18z NAM is wetter again for LI. About .25” of liquid with ratios could be a solid 3-5”

Hi res man looks good as well for coast. I'm going with 2-4 isolated 5 amounts.

Well went for a hike on the Appalachian Trail today, about 2 to 3 inches in spots , checked one of my cameras , this one is at 1486 ft elevation , I thought it was nice that it started snowing a little before midnight on Christmas Eve and then the beautiful snow on Christmas morning ! I will be posting pictures after big storms, did these because CHRISTMAS ! Good Luck ! Cold up there today !

12* here now

I know it’s 18z but NAM conts to trend wetter for Sat. GFS wetter as well.

15*with a windchill of _5 * i wonder if anyone will see below zeros for low temp for tom morning

Down to 11° here, real feel 2°, coldest night thus far up coming...

2*F going down to -2*F tonight

Amenia NY

@frank 638 wrote:15*with a windchill of _5 * i wonder if anyone will see below zeros for low temp for tom morning

Was up at my parents in Ulster County hunting last two days. Yesterday high of 15. Last night got down to -3. Today high of 12. Tonight forecast to be-6. Righ now here in Syosset 12

Currently 10 with the feel of -1

Anything new for Saturdays minor event?

@lglickman1 wrote:Anything new for Saturdays minor event?

RGEm

Down to 11* at least it's not to windy but crazy cold brrrrr

Models trended dry again for Saturday's event. Probably still a good shot of 1-3 inches of LI. A coating to 2 inches everywhere else.

Got down to 2.3 last night.

This is an impressive cold shot for duration but not for extreme. No lows yet below 0 is pretty surprising especially considering there are days we've barely broken 10 degrees for the highs (12.2 yesterday for the high). I would think we finally break 0 here New Years morning but we shall see.

BTW the 2.6 inches of snow we received Christmas early morning isn't going anywhere.

Woke up to SCI lowered. Scroll mentioning EURO for next week gone, and NWS forecast lowering amounts for tomorrow. (Yes 2-4” would have been nice). This is getting real frustrating real quick. Who wants to bet we get 2 big rainstorms after this cold shot ends?

syosnow94 wrote:Woke up to SCI lowered.  Scroll mentioning EURO for next week gone, and NWS forecast lowering amounts for tomorrow. (Yes 2-4” would have been nice). This is getting real frustrating real quick.  Who wants to bet we get 2 big rainstorms after this cold shot ends?

Yep.Watch a big cutter and temps up in the 50's with 2-3 inches of rain.I've seen that a lot after a cold spell.

syosnow94 wrote:Woke up to SCI lowered.  Scroll mentioning EURO for next week gone, and NWS forecast lowering amounts for tomorrow. (Yes 2-4” would have been nice). This is getting real frustrating real quick.  Who wants to bet we get 2 big rainstorms after this cold shot ends?

Come up to NH when I go back to school. We have 3' on the ground......and counting. We will probably end up somewhere near 100" when all is said and done this winter.