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Possible Christmas Day Storm

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:13 pm

Hello Clan -

I want to take some time to highlight the Christmas Day storm potential. A few days ago, models were showing mild conditions with moderate to heavy rainfall on Christmas. A low pressure system was forming west of here and tracking N&W. That put us on the mild side of the storm. Well, things have changed. And for good reason.

December 18th GFS valid Christmas Eve:

Possible Christmas Day Storm  Gfs_z500a_namer_29

December 21st GFS valid Christmas Eve:

Possible Christmas Day Storm  Gfs_z500a_namer_15

Biggest take away is the SE Ridge is not placed over the east coast. It has been shunned east in response to the trough pushing in from the west. The models earlier in the week were not recognizing the southern piece of energy very well. Once they got a better sample of it, they were able to see it track across the country and try to phase with northern energy ejecting out of the Polar Vortex. Another contrast to these images is the NAO region. In today's GFS run, the higher height anomalies are more apparent which means there is more blocking to slow the system down and allow phasing between the jets to occur.

I do not think conditions are prime for a big storm. We're most likely going to see a weak system develop off our coast. My original thought on this system has been rain to snow. I maintain this position for the simple reason that we're exiting a warm pattern and entering a cold one. The cold air is not yet established. If somehow this system deepens, or gets stronger, that will pull in the cold air faster. But I do not see that happening at this time.

Possible Christmas Day Storm  Capture.PNG.0dea1b9fbc0318a745fe1a25fb08417a

The GFS has a rain to snow event for the coast and an all-snow event for those away from the coast.

Possible Christmas Day Storm  2qlgwvo

The EURO OP is cold with some snow showers but its Ensemble (shown above) is a bit more bullish with the precipitation.

We will see where models take us in the next 48 hours. I think it will either stay a rain to snow event or it will be cold/dry with some flurries. I think the mild/rainy scenario models were showing is off the table given the pattern change that is coming.

Speaking of pattern change, we will have to keep an eye on December 29th and another system the first week of January. Keep checking the long range thread for more information on those systems.

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:36 pm

I will be happy with even a light snowfall at this point, especially for Christmas!
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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:40 pm

"I do not think conditions are prime for a big storm. We're most likely going to see a weak system develop off our coast. My original thought on this system has been rain to snow. I maintain this position for the simple reason that we're exiting a warm pattern and entering a cold one. The cold air is not yet established. If somehow this system deepens, or gets stronger, that will pull in the cold air faster. But I do not see that happening at this time."

Cannot argue with this Frank, although I can see how very easily this storm can deepen a little. If the main energy digs not that much further S the result would likely be deeper. Will it though? Right now its just not being modeled that way. There isnt strong blocking mechanism off the EC and the PNA is ehh. One of the other has to trend a tad more favorable.  Nice write up.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by mmanisca Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:45 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:I will be happy with even a light snowfall at this point, especially for Christmas!
A light snowfall on Christmas is perfect!! As much as I'd like to see a negatively tilted trough with a nice high to the north and copious amounts of moisture to produce a raging blizzard, I'd rather the light snow for the Christmas travelers. Now after Christmas, bring it on!!!!
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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:47 pm

is there still a chance this could be a rain event only for some people?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:50 pm

@track17 wrote:is there still a chance this could be a rain event only for some people?

Yes. Jersey Shore into LI that risk still exists. Could be "white rain" when it's just a very wet snow.

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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:52 pm

That is what my fear has been all along Frank never liked this system. Thank you for being honest so I don't get my hopes up for any snow.

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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:00 pm

But either way merry Christmas everyone

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Post by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:04 pm

Frankie Boy. Does this come in overnight Sunday into Monday so the temps are at their nighttime low point? That could help

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:15 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Frankie Boy.  Does this come in overnight Sunday into Monday so the temps are at their nighttime low point?  That could help
oh boy syo used the iconic no no nickname lol banishment!
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:18 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Frankie Boy.  Does this come in overnight Sunday into Monday so the temps are at their nighttime low point?  That could help
oh boy syo used the iconic no no nickname lol banishment!

Time for the cement shoes eh? Syo, what size you take? Wink
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:21 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Frankie Boy.  Does this come in overnight Sunday into Monday so the temps are at their nighttime low point?  That could help
oh boy syo used the iconic no no nickname lol banishment!

Huh?

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:22 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Frankie Boy.  Does this come in overnight Sunday into Monday so the temps are at their nighttime low point?  That could help
oh boy syo used the iconic no no nickname lol banishment!

Huh?

Madonne! You are going to be sleeping with the fishes! Wink
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:28 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Frankie Boy.  Does this come in overnight Sunday into Monday so the temps are at their nighttime low point?  That could help
oh boy syo used the iconic no no nickname lol banishment!

Huh?

Madonne! You are going to be sleeping with the fishes! Wink

Im laughing because I have no idea what the hell you, and especially Jman are talking about. Shocked

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:33 pm

You can’t call the boss Frankie
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Post by rb924119 Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:49 pm

FWIW 18z NAM looked wayyyyyyyyyy better than its 12z predecessor at H5.

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:51 pm

Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
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Post by Snow88 Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:57 pm

Need the energy to dig on the 18z GFS but I will take snow showers for Xmas
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:23 pm

Syo I recall frank saying he hated Frankie was a joke I may be wrong.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:24 pm

@rb924119 wrote:FWIW 18z NAM looked wayyyyyyyyyy better than its 12z predecessor at H5.
the Sr models have not yet disappointed this winter. Honestly if next week within 84 hrs if nam shows 30 inches I may buy it lol.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:25 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 5:28 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:46 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:15 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA! I prolly have the best cxhance as the system starts to strengthen into NE.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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