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Possible Christmas Day Storm

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Dtone
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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:52 am

LOL, Jimmy.We still have a shot at 1 to 3 inches up here but the storm seems to be drying out.just last night it was 3 to 5.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:20 am

@docstox12 wrote:LOL, Jimmy.We still have a shot at 1 to 3 inches up here but the storm seems to be drying out.just last night it was 3 to 5.

I think it has to do more with the possibility of sleet mixing in and reducing accumulations slightly.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:28 am

Yea Hyde sleet could mix in. Hearing anywhere from 1 to 6 for our are, should be a nice event.

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:28 am

winter weather advisory for 1-3

wind advisory 20-30 gusts up to 40-50. the outline for tonight is funny

Tonight: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 2am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 2am and 3am, then rain, snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:31 am

@RJB8525 wrote:winter weather advisory for 1-3

wind advisory 20-30 gusts up to 40-50. the outline for tonight is funny

Tonight: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 2am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 2am and 3am, then rain, snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Hilarious! NWS playing whack-a -mole with the mixed precip types.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:44 am

@hyde345 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:LOL, Jimmy.We still have a shot at 1 to 3 inches up here but the storm seems to be drying out.just last night it was 3 to 5.

I think it has to do more with the possibility of sleet mixing in and reducing accumulations slightly.

It's a funny thing, though, no mention of sleet in my forecast at all, all snow.OK, it sounds like you could be right.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:48 am

Yea doc some say sleet mixing in some say not, if it does mix will be on the low end.

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Post by mikeypizano Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:54 am

@RJB8525 wrote:winter weather advisory for 1-3

wind advisory 20-30 gusts up to 40-50. the outline for tonight is funny

Tonight: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 2am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 2am and 3am, then rain, snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Covering all outcomes... Laughing
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:00 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@RJB8525 wrote:winter weather advisory for 1-3

wind advisory 20-30 gusts up to 40-50. the outline for tonight is funny

Tonight: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 2am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 2am and 3am, then rain, snow and sleet, possibly mixed with freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Covering all outcomes... Laughing

Going to be a mess for some areas with temps just around freezing later. I'm currently at 40°, and will probably start as rain. Really going to be more of a nowcast until we see where and when temps change at different levels. Bergen County is going to be a battle zone for sure.

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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:07 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Yea doc some say sleet mixing in some say not, if it does mix will be on the low end.

I really think that if we don't see any mixing we will easily see 3-5 especially with most mesoscale models depicting a heavy band of S+ between 5am and 7am.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Dec 24, 2017 12:18 pm

yea hyde you being more North will see less mixing I think! 1 to 6 is a good bet and will be a white Christmas. And this could be the start of a long week ahead with next weekends storm that i am really excited about.

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:01 pm

GEM says nice purple spot for N & W peeps

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 7D357678-C36E-4061-8420-90B584BE9BBF.thumb.png.237604a6df6395ad756e19a18c4a9350

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:02 pm

RGEM

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 Rgem_asnow_neus_39

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:02 pm

HI RES NAM

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 Namconus_asnow_neus_11

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:03 pm

3K NAM

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 Nam3km_asnow_neus_34

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Post by Math23x7 Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:17 pm

IMO, it will reach 50 degrees in Bellerose, making it the fourth consecutive year it reaches 50 here, which goes back to what I was saying last week about Christmas being mild.

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Post by mikeypizano Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:19 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:IMO, it will reach 50 degrees in Bellerose, making it the fourth consecutive year it reaches 50 here, which goes back to what I was saying last week about Christmas being mild.

I got 37 at my house. In fact, if you go to Wundergound, and use the KPACORKL2 station, that is my personal one I just got yesterday! :-D

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/pa/pittston/18640
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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:20 pm

EURO CAME IN HOT BOYS AND GIRLS!!! North and west do really well!!!

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:22 pm

@amugs wrote:3K NAM

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 Nam3km_asnow_neus_34

Hope this one plays out, it gives more of us a white Christmas.Going into nowcast soon on this one.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:33 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:IMO, it will reach 50 degrees in Bellerose, making it the fourth consecutive year it reaches 50 here, which goes back to what I was saying last week about Christmas being mild.

I'm expecting several inches of snow tonight and tomorrow's forecast is 35 and windy. That's not exactly a tropical forecast.
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 24, 2017 1:58 pm

@amugs wrote:3K NAM

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 Nam3km_asnow_neus_34
wow 3K NAM gives the coast some love. Currently 37.8* here on LI. Smells like snow, but will be rain  lol
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:40 pm

Great video by Steve D talking about why he's concerned for a heavy band of snow along the coast tmw morning. Also possible thundersnow along the coast. Take a look:

https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2017/12/24/video-discussion-for-december-24-2017/
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:40 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:IMO, it will reach 50 degrees in Bellerose, making it the fourth consecutive year it reaches 50 here, which goes back to what I was saying last week about Christmas being mild.

You have to give it up already, you were wrong. Be happy about that.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:41 pm

@amugs wrote:3K NAM

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 Nam3km_asnow_neus_34

I signed for that 4 inches over my house right now. My worry with this storm is the mid-level warmth. Worried that sleet and freezing rain may hinder accumulations in the north and west.
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Post by aiannone Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:26 pm

18z Hi-Res NAM is cold for the back end
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 6 25588010
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