Possible Christmas Day Storm

GEFS say snow. Rain to changeover for coastal plain
From Dougie

Rb great catch on the dual jet and we have seen this a few time these past few storms.

Swiped this from another bd. This depicts me to a T

This Christmas storm is very confusing just like every other storm because I am hearing 1 to 3 inches for the city now I'm hearing a coding maybe to an inch from Lee Goldberg this is why I trust you guys when it comes to snow storms any thoughts of what we are going to have

NWS bumped me to 2 to 4 from 1 to 3.Frank spot on AGAIN!!!!!! Hope this gets down to everybody in the area so we all can enjoy a White Christmas!!!!

last time we had snow on christmas day was on 2002 i think the city had 5 inches of snow put in nj you guys had more i hope that helps

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:can someone tell me when the last time Nj had snow actually on Christmas Day..my husband and I are having a debate..I can not find records in my google search..thank you!!

The last measurable snow in NYC on Christmas Day was in 2009, 2.0 inches, there was more in NNJ.

Christmas 2002 the city had 5-7 inches and the northern suburbs a foot and a half, 16.8 IMBY. My favorite Christmas of all time.

CP , you brought back a great memory! My GF at the time, now my Wife,had just moved up to Monroe a week before and there was 17 inches as you say.Mahwah had maybe a foot.As I was driving up and noticed much more snow in Monroe I said to myself..."I'm gonna LOVE it up here in winter"!.

RB, trends aren’t positive lol. NWS flipped me back to all rain! Lol

First off lets just say what a turn around from a week ago with respect to what some were expecting for Christmas Day regarding temps and precip expectations. Like some have said earlier the fact that we arent BBQingg outside in a tee shirt and shorts and flip flops like we have the past couple of years is a victory unto itself. That said unfort I'm not liking what I'm seeing regarding the Christmas day storm for the coastal plain and accumulations.  Here is why:

Here is a close up of the 500mb vorticity maps.  I will be using the 00z Euro for all maps.  I have been saying in the past few days that in order for this to trend better I wanted to see the trough dig a little further south into the Tenn Valley, but it looks like is will come up a tad short.  By 06z Dec25th there is a consensus among modeling both short range and Globals that there will be a vort max that is rounding the base of the trough creating a primary low at the surface that tracks through NWestern NY state.  At the same time a secondary low is beginning to form just east of the Delmarva/S jersey shore; south of LI in response to the main vort max of the trough.  As the trough continues east the transfer of energy from the low to the NW to the new primary off the coast takes place and the new low deepens.  







The problem with this set up is because the main trough does not dig far enough south it allows that initial primary to get too far N&W of the area.  The result of this is this:  Here are the surface wind maps followed by the surface temps, 925mb, and 850mb temps.  As you can clearly see the result is unfavorable wind directions coming off the ocean until its much too late for the coastal plain.  The coastal plain remains above freezing throughout the event and eastern sections see a warm nose in the mid levels come in.  


















If the trough dug deeper it would not have allowed the initail primary to gain as much lattitude before transferring to the coast and the colder soln would likely ensue.  I still think some areas N&W will end up with 1-3 isolated 3-5".   There is still 2days until this event unfolds and the freezing lines from surface to 850mb are hovering right around the coastal plain.  There is still time for subtle shifting, 25-50 miles, to the upper level energy; the results of which could lead to differences in outcome. Those within the blue circle would be the ones most likely affected by the shift.  There are still subtle differences in some of the details I posted above among the diff models.  This may boil down to observations, and not models along the coastal plain.  Watch the surface maps for timing and changes in wind direction compared to where the precip is etc.  No matter the outcome it is not 60*