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Possible Christmas Day Storm

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Post by track17 Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:35 am

Frank I hope your correct but the last 5 storms it was suppose to change over it never does

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Post by jimv45 Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:36 am

I will take 3-4 hope everyone will cash in on colder solution

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:37 am

@track17 wrote:Frank I hope your correct but the last 5 storms it was suppose to change over it never does

Even if it does not precipitation shuts off by 8am no matter what. It is going to be a nice cold day.

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Post by mikeypizano Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:37 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@track17 wrote:Frank I hope your correct but the last 5 storms it was suppose to change over it never does

Even if it does not precipitation shuts off by 8am no matter what. It is going to be a nice cold day.

Windy too?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:39 am

I think somebody from the Hudson River and NYC on east is gonna see/hear thunder snow from this. Models are still playing catchup, BIG TIME with the dynamics here. Start look at the mesoscale models not for QPF, but for jet structure. There has been a noteable trend toward a coupled jet structure, with the placement of a short, stubby jet in excess of 140kts developing further to our southwest in addition to the main one over New England. Models are still unsure of whether or not to connect these features as the mid-level trough continues to tilt extrmely negative. The tilting and deepening of this mid-level trough argues that the two jets should indeed remain separate, which would put the entire region in a zone of maximized forcing for ascent, and a blow up of precipitation. The reason for thundersnow is the above combined with what sroc brought up regarding the surprise accumulations; enhanced coastal frontogenesis along the Arctic mesoscale boundary coupled with the above forcings. That is where we will see the greatest pressure falls, and is also why the modeling is struggling with low placement. Because they are still undecided as to how to handle the jet, they are running one low off with the primary jet as it shifts across northern New England, but as soon as the secondary jet develops they jump the low back to the northwest toward LI. As we get closer, I fully expect QPF to increase region-wide, as I'm betting we see a dual-jet structure develop, and thundersnow to be experienced somewhere in our region east of the Hudson.

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Post by Math23x7 Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:53 am

So the 12Z CMC has all rain for much of LI but a blast of snow for Beantown.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:14 pm

@Math23x7 wrote:So the 12Z CMC has all rain for much of LI but a blast of snow for Beantown.

Talk to me when that really happens.

Last year Red Sox Suck was forecast for several huge storms and all ended up 2 inches or less in most cases. One when they were predicted for 40 LOL,
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:16 pm

Vast improvements with the 12z UKMET

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:01 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Vast improvements with the 12z UKMET

Sop teasing, how vast?
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Post by mikeypizano Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:05 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Vast improvements with the 12z UKMET

Put up or shut up!!! Laughing
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Post by Math23x7 Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:31 pm

12Z EURO: all rain for NYC/LI

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Post by sroc4 Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:35 pm

@rb924119 wrote:00z:

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Img_1316

12z:

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Img_1317

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Fri Dec 22, 2017 1:55 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:00z:

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Img_1316

12z:

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Img_1317

That one really seems to be struggling. Bangor went from 2 inches to 9 from one run to the next? Not buying it.

Edit: nevermind. Two different time periods. My bad.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:26 pm

No, you're right, Bob. It has.

Also of note the EURO now has the dual jet structure. Meaning? If it continues depicting that, I expect a wetter trend with the QPF.

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:19 pm

GEFS say snow. Rain to changeover for coastal plain
From Dougie

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 GEFSNEPrecip12072.gif.e771e0cb4cd374f85f6eacb410597015

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Post by amugs Fri Dec 22, 2017 4:22 pm

Rb great catch on the dual jet and we have seen this a few time these past few storms.

Swiped this from another bd. This depicts me to a T

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Snoopyxmassnow.gif.07cdc2405b03af0ce0822f29679dd25b

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Post by frank 638 Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:25 pm

This Christmas storm is very confusing just like every other storm because I am hearing 1 to 3 inches for the city now I'm hearing a coding maybe to an inch from Lee Goldberg this is why I trust you guys when it comes to snow storms any thoughts of what we are going to have

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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:46 pm

NWS bumped me to 2 to 4 from 1 to 3.Frank spot on AGAIN!!!!!! Hope this gets down to everybody in the area so we all can enjoy a White Christmas!!!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:23 pm

can someone tell me when the last time Nj had snow actually on Christmas Day..my husband and I are having a debate..I can not find records in my google search..thank you!!
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Post by frank 638 Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:27 pm

last time we had snow on christmas day was on 2002 i think the city had 5 inches of snow put in nj you guys had more i hope that helps

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:02 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:can someone tell me when the last time Nj had snow actually on Christmas Day..my husband and I are having a debate..I can not find records in my google search..thank you!!

The last measurable snow in NYC on Christmas Day was in 2009, 2.0 inches, there was more in NNJ.

Christmas 2002 the city had 5-7 inches and the northern suburbs a foot and a half, 16.8 IMBY. My favorite Christmas of all time.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:08 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:can someone tell me when the last time Nj had snow actually on Christmas Day..my husband and I are having a debate..I can not find records in my google search..thank you!!

The last measurable snow in NYC on Christmas Day was in 2009, 2.0 inches, there was more in NNJ.

Christmas 2002 the city had 5-7 inches and the northern suburbs a foot and a half, 16.8 IMBY. My favorite Christmas of all time.

CP , you brought back a great memory! My GF at the time, now my Wife,had just moved up to Monroe a week before and there was 17 inches as you say.Mahwah had maybe a foot.As I was driving up and noticed much more snow in Monroe I said to myself..."I'm gonna LOVE it up here in winter"!.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:05 pm

3k NAM says Merry Christmas. The trends are continuing to be positive with this system, and I think the 3k is starting to catch on. Just my opinion.

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Post by aiannone Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:27 pm

RB, trends aren’t positive lol. NWS flipped me back to all rain! Lol
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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:54 am

First off lets just say what a turn around from a week ago with respect to what some were expecting for Christmas Day regarding temps and precip expectations. Like some have said earlier the fact that we arent BBQingg outside in a tee shirt and shorts and flip flops like we have the past couple of years is a victory unto itself. That said unfort I'm not liking what I'm seeing regarding the Christmas day storm for the coastal plain and accumulations.  Here is why:

Here is a close up of the 500mb vorticity maps.  I will be using the 00z Euro for all maps.  I have been saying in the past few days that in order for this to trend better I wanted to see the trough dig a little further south into the Tenn Valley, but it looks like is will come up a tad short.  By 06z Dec25th there is a consensus among modeling both short range and Globals that there will be a vort max that is rounding the base of the trough creating a primary low at the surface that tracks through NWestern NY state.  At the same time a secondary low is beginning to form just east of the Delmarva/S jersey shore; south of LI in response to the main vort max of the trough.  As the trough continues east the transfer of energy from the low to the NW to the new primary off the coast takes place and the new low deepens.  

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_31
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_29
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_30
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_32
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_33

The problem with this set up is because the main trough does not dig far enough south it allows that initial primary to get too far N&W of the area.  The result of this is this:  Here are the surface wind maps followed by the surface temps, 925mb, and 850mb temps.  As you can clearly see the result is unfavorable wind directions coming off the ocean until its much too late for the coastal plain.  The coastal plain remains above freezing throughout the event and eastern sections see a warm nose in the mid levels come in.  

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_34
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_35
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_36
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_37

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_41
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_38
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_39
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_40


Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_42
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_43
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_44
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Ecmwf_45


If the trough dug deeper it would not have allowed the initail primary to gain as much lattitude before transferring to the coast and the colder soln would likely ensue.  I still think some areas N&W will end up with 1-3 isolated 3-5".   There is still 2days until this event unfolds and the freezing lines from surface to 850mb are hovering right around the coastal plain.  There is still time for subtle shifting, 25-50 miles, to the upper level energy; the results of which could lead to differences in outcome. Those within the blue circle would be the ones most likely affected by the shift.  There are still subtle differences in some of the details I posted above among the diff models.  This may boil down to observations, and not models along the coastal plain.  Watch the surface maps for timing and changes in wind direction compared to where the precip is etc.  No matter the outcome it is not 60*  What a Face       

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 4 Surpri11

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