Possible Christmas Day Storm
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Dtone
Vinnydula
Dunnzoo
hyde345
bobjohnsonforthehall
jimv45
docstox12
weatherwatchermom
RJB8525
frank 638
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Math23x7
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rb924119
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track17
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sroc4
mikeypizano
Frank_Wx
27 posters
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
NAM is colder than GFS. C-2" with 3-4" amounts N&W of NYC is my call for this system


Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
track17 wrote:Sroc said earlier it did bud for us at least. It is ok though just wish nothing would come rather then rain. Rain does not feel like christmas
Rain comes overnight Sunday then switches to snow early Monday morning. Most of the day Monday will be cold/dry.
No rain on Christmas. It will feel and potentially look nice.
Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
Frank I hope your correct but the last 5 storms it was suppose to change over it never does
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
I will take 3-4 hope everyone will cash in on colder solution
jimv45- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
track17 wrote:Frank I hope your correct but the last 5 storms it was suppose to change over it never does
Even if it does not precipitation shuts off by 8am no matter what. It is going to be a nice cold day.
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
Frank_Wx wrote:track17 wrote:Frank I hope your correct but the last 5 storms it was suppose to change over it never does
Even if it does not precipitation shuts off by 8am no matter what. It is going to be a nice cold day.
Windy too?
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
I think somebody from the Hudson River and NYC on east is gonna see/hear thunder snow from this. Models are still playing catchup, BIG TIME with the dynamics here. Start look at the mesoscale models not for QPF, but for jet structure. There has been a noteable trend toward a coupled jet structure, with the placement of a short, stubby jet in excess of 140kts developing further to our southwest in addition to the main one over New England. Models are still unsure of whether or not to connect these features as the mid-level trough continues to tilt extrmely negative. The tilting and deepening of this mid-level trough argues that the two jets should indeed remain separate, which would put the entire region in a zone of maximized forcing for ascent, and a blow up of precipitation. The reason for thundersnow is the above combined with what sroc brought up regarding the surprise accumulations; enhanced coastal frontogenesis along the Arctic mesoscale boundary coupled with the above forcings. That is where we will see the greatest pressure falls, and is also why the modeling is struggling with low placement. Because they are still undecided as to how to handle the jet, they are running one low off with the primary jet as it shifts across northern New England, but as soon as the secondary jet develops they jump the low back to the northwest toward LI. As we get closer, I fully expect QPF to increase region-wide, as I'm betting we see a dual-jet structure develop, and thundersnow to be experienced somewhere in our region east of the Hudson.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
So the 12Z CMC has all rain for much of LI but a blast of snow for Beantown.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
Math23x7 wrote:So the 12Z CMC has all rain for much of LI but a blast of snow for Beantown.
Talk to me when that really happens.
Last year Red Sox Suck was forecast for several huge storms and all ended up 2 inches or less in most cases. One when they were predicted for 40 LOL,
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
Vast improvements with the 12z UKMET
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
rb924119 wrote:Vast improvements with the 12z UKMET
Sop teasing, how vast?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
rb924119 wrote:Vast improvements with the 12z UKMET
Put up or shut up!!!

mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
12Z EURO: all rain for NYC/LI
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
rb924119 wrote:00z:
12z:
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:00z:
12z:
That one really seems to be struggling. Bangor went from 2 inches to 9 from one run to the next? Not buying it.
Edit: nevermind. Two different time periods. My bad.
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
No, you're right, Bob. It has.
Also of note the EURO now has the dual jet structure. Meaning? If it continues depicting that, I expect a wetter trend with the QPF.
Also of note the EURO now has the dual jet structure. Meaning? If it continues depicting that, I expect a wetter trend with the QPF.
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
GEFS say snow. Rain to changeover for coastal plain
From Dougie

From Dougie

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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
Rb great catch on the dual jet and we have seen this a few time these past few storms.
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
This Christmas storm is very confusing just like every other storm because I am hearing 1 to 3 inches for the city now I'm hearing a coding maybe to an inch from Lee Goldberg this is why I trust you guys when it comes to snow storms any thoughts of what we are going to have
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
NWS bumped me to 2 to 4 from 1 to 3.Frank spot on AGAIN!!!!!! Hope this gets down to everybody in the area so we all can enjoy a White Christmas!!!!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
can someone tell me when the last time Nj had snow actually on Christmas Day..my husband and I are having a debate..I can not find records in my google search..thank you!!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
last time we had snow on christmas day was on 2002 i think the city had 5 inches of snow put in nj you guys had more i hope that helps
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
weatherwatchermom wrote:can someone tell me when the last time Nj had snow actually on Christmas Day..my husband and I are having a debate..I can not find records in my google search..thank you!!
The last measurable snow in NYC on Christmas Day was in 2009, 2.0 inches, there was more in NNJ.
Christmas 2002 the city had 5-7 inches and the northern suburbs a foot and a half, 16.8 IMBY. My favorite Christmas of all time.
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:can someone tell me when the last time Nj had snow actually on Christmas Day..my husband and I are having a debate..I can not find records in my google search..thank you!!
The last measurable snow in NYC on Christmas Day was in 2009, 2.0 inches, there was more in NNJ.
Christmas 2002 the city had 5-7 inches and the northern suburbs a foot and a half, 16.8 IMBY. My favorite Christmas of all time.
CP , you brought back a great memory! My GF at the time, now my Wife,had just moved up to Monroe a week before and there was 17 inches as you say.Mahwah had maybe a foot.As I was driving up and noticed much more snow in Monroe I said to myself..."I'm gonna LOVE it up here in winter"!.
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
3k NAM says Merry Christmas. The trends are continuing to be positive with this system, and I think the 3k is starting to catch on. Just my opinion.
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
RB, trends aren’t positive lol. NWS flipped me back to all rain! Lol
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Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm
First off lets just say what a turn around from a week ago with respect to what some were expecting for Christmas Day regarding temps and precip expectations. Like some have said earlier the fact that we arent BBQingg outside in a tee shirt and shorts and flip flops like we have the past couple of years is a victory unto itself. That said unfort I'm not liking what I'm seeing regarding the Christmas day storm for the coastal plain and accumulations. Here is why:
Here is a close up of the 500mb vorticity maps. I will be using the 00z Euro for all maps. I have been saying in the past few days that in order for this to trend better I wanted to see the trough dig a little further south into the Tenn Valley, but it looks like is will come up a tad short. By 06z Dec25th there is a consensus among modeling both short range and Globals that there will be a vort max that is rounding the base of the trough creating a primary low at the surface that tracks through NWestern NY state. At the same time a secondary low is beginning to form just east of the Delmarva/S jersey shore; south of LI in response to the main vort max of the trough. As the trough continues east the transfer of energy from the low to the NW to the new primary off the coast takes place and the new low deepens.





The problem with this set up is because the main trough does not dig far enough south it allows that initial primary to get too far N&W of the area. The result of this is this: Here are the surface wind maps followed by the surface temps, 925mb, and 850mb temps. As you can clearly see the result is unfavorable wind directions coming off the ocean until its much too late for the coastal plain. The coastal plain remains above freezing throughout the event and eastern sections see a warm nose in the mid levels come in.












If the trough dug deeper it would not have allowed the initail primary to gain as much lattitude before transferring to the coast and the colder soln would likely ensue. I still think some areas N&W will end up with 1-3 isolated 3-5". There is still 2days until this event unfolds and the freezing lines from surface to 850mb are hovering right around the coastal plain. There is still time for subtle shifting, 25-50 miles, to the upper level energy; the results of which could lead to differences in outcome. Those within the blue circle would be the ones most likely affected by the shift. There are still subtle differences in some of the details I posted above among the diff models. This may boil down to observations, and not models along the coastal plain. Watch the surface maps for timing and changes in wind direction compared to where the precip is etc. No matter the outcome it is not 60*

Here is a close up of the 500mb vorticity maps. I will be using the 00z Euro for all maps. I have been saying in the past few days that in order for this to trend better I wanted to see the trough dig a little further south into the Tenn Valley, but it looks like is will come up a tad short. By 06z Dec25th there is a consensus among modeling both short range and Globals that there will be a vort max that is rounding the base of the trough creating a primary low at the surface that tracks through NWestern NY state. At the same time a secondary low is beginning to form just east of the Delmarva/S jersey shore; south of LI in response to the main vort max of the trough. As the trough continues east the transfer of energy from the low to the NW to the new primary off the coast takes place and the new low deepens.





The problem with this set up is because the main trough does not dig far enough south it allows that initial primary to get too far N&W of the area. The result of this is this: Here are the surface wind maps followed by the surface temps, 925mb, and 850mb temps. As you can clearly see the result is unfavorable wind directions coming off the ocean until its much too late for the coastal plain. The coastal plain remains above freezing throughout the event and eastern sections see a warm nose in the mid levels come in.












If the trough dug deeper it would not have allowed the initail primary to gain as much lattitude before transferring to the coast and the colder soln would likely ensue. I still think some areas N&W will end up with 1-3 isolated 3-5". There is still 2days until this event unfolds and the freezing lines from surface to 850mb are hovering right around the coastal plain. There is still time for subtle shifting, 25-50 miles, to the upper level energy; the results of which could lead to differences in outcome. Those within the blue circle would be the ones most likely affected by the shift. There are still subtle differences in some of the details I posted above among the diff models. This may boil down to observations, and not models along the coastal plain. Watch the surface maps for timing and changes in wind direction compared to where the precip is etc. No matter the outcome it is not 60*


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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