Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

by **mikeypizano** Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:51 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:15 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...

Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA! I prolly have the best cxhance as the system starts to strengthen into NE.

by **mikeypizano** Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink

by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:27 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction

Possible Christmas Day Storm - Page 2 Giphy

by **mikeypizano** Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:24 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction

Oooh can I have some popcorn!!!! Shocked

by **amugs** Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:16 pm

SREFS getting wetter - I'll take it and run!!

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:19 pm

I am still worried about the surface temps mugs I know you guys say not to but I think it has to be a legit concern we are getting close

by **jmanley32** Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy. I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction

scott that actually had me vocally burst out laughing like ur watching a movie lmao.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:39 pm

track17 wrote:I am still worried about the surface temps mugs I know you guys say not to but I think it has to be a legit concern we are getting close

You have to take into consideration where you live. Temperature wise the south and central coasts of NJ are the warmest areas in the 75 mile radius of NYC, 90% of our area could get snow when that area gets rain.

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:41 pm

That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

by **Math23x7** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:29 pm

Snow totals through 7 AM Christmas on the 12/21 21Z SREFS:

Possible Christmas Day Storm - Page 2 Srefsx10

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:32 pm

track17 wrote:That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

No ones seeing more than a couple of inches IMO so if you do miss it you won't be missing much.

And don't get caught up in specifics of the storm 8-9 days away. That has about as good a chance of happening as shown on todays models as I have of going out with Sophia Vegara 9 days from now.

by **mikeypizano** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
track17 wrote:That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

No ones seeing more than a couple of inches IMO so if you do miss it you won't be missing much.

And don't get caught up in specifics of the storm 8-9 days away. That has about as good a chance of happening as shown on todays models as I have of going out with Sophia Vegara 9 days from now.

We expect pictures...

by **sroc4** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:36 pm

We are not done trending. RGEm at 500mb looks great by hr48. Much stronger with the energy.

by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:40 pm

Non-scientific point of view here. I’ve said it over and over on this forum for three years now. Winters follow a pattern. So far this winter it’s wanted to snow. Every event so far has trended colder/wetter as we’ve gotten inside 48 hours. Until something changes I will be optimistic and expect a white Christmas for the entirety of our members.

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:41 pm

Mikey I don't care about totals I realize I won't see snow just don't want rain.

by **Math23x7** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:41 pm

sroc4 wrote:We are not done trending. RGEm at 500mb looks great by hr48. Much stronger with the energy.

Keep in mind that the trending continued west with the snow events earlier this year practically up until the event was underway. A similar scenario would give rain to everyone in the region except the far northern and western suburbs

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:43 pm

Math that is what I was trying to say all day that this we sat trend was bad and it was looking warmer for everyone

by **aiannone** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:50 pm

0z GFS rollin

by **Sanchize06** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:53 pm

0z GFS coming in a little west, light snow NW of NYC at hr 78, light rain S&E

by **Sanchize06** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:55 pm

As it strenthens and pulls away at hr 84, everyone is snow, snowing good from NYC and points north and east

by **aiannone** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:55 pm

WOW and we have a full out snowstorm for the coast on Christmas day on this run!

by **Sanchize06** Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:59 pm

That run was definitely an improvement, if we can get it to strengthen a little bit earlier and pull the cold air in a little sooner, would be a nice snowfall. Blows up a little too late

by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:00 pm

Don't like what I am hearing with the rain and west.

by **frank 638** Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:00 am

Does anyone know how much snow we will have by Xmas morning

by Guest Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:29 am

My how things have changed earlier in the week just 3 days ago the forecast was for 53 and rain. santa

Sunday NightRain and snow likely after 7pm, becoming all snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Christmas DayA 30 percent chance of snow. High 35

by Sponsored content