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Possible Christmas Day Storm

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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:17 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:27 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes

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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 21, 2017 7:38 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes


Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 2 Giphy

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:24 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes


Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 2 Giphy

Oooh can I have some popcorn!!!! Shocked
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Post by amugs Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:16 pm

SREFS getting wetter - I'll take it and run!!

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 2 IMG_0355.thumb.GIF.0ab520b3b88c05262fddddd20d8bcf5f

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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:19 pm

I am still worried about the surface temps mugs I know you guys say not to but I think it has to be a legit concern we are getting close

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:35 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@mikeypizano wrote:Rb when is the nam in viable range to start believing totals more?
I think it's like 48 hrs or even less.

So they should start really honing in tomorrow night or so?

More like Saturday morning Mikey Boy.  I hear the latest models show no snow once you get west of the Jersey Pa border and BL issues in southern Westchester.

It is going to be a LOOOONG weekend...
Mike you totally missed syos passive aggressive remark it was a good one, but I got him ha cuz im go be in eastern CT from Sat to SUn or Mon so HA!

Nope, I was fully aware so I denied him his satisfaction Wink
rollseyes


Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 2 Giphy
scott that actually had me vocally burst out laughing like ur watching a movie lmao.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:39 pm

@track17 wrote:I am still worried about the surface temps mugs I know you guys say not to but I think it has to be a legit concern we are getting close

You have to take into consideration where you live. Temperature wise the south and central coasts of NJ are the warmest areas in the 75 mile radius of NYC, 90% of our area could get snow when that area gets rain.
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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:41 pm

That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:29 pm

Snow totals through 7 AM Christmas on the 12/21 21Z SREFS:

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 2 Srefsx10

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:32 pm

@track17 wrote:That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

No ones seeing more than a couple of inches IMO so if you do miss it you won't be missing much.

And don't get caught up in specifics of the storm 8-9 days away. That has about as good a chance of happening as shown on todays models as I have of going out with Sophia Vegara 9 days from now.
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Post by mikeypizano Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:33 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@track17 wrote:That's what I am trying to say and looking at surface temps I think 90 percent is high most of nj looks very wet. So I think we are looking at more like 60 percent. I hope I am wrong just suck knowing I will be seeing rain on christmas

No ones seeing more than a couple of inches IMO so if you do miss it you won't be missing much.

And don't get caught up in specifics of the storm 8-9 days away. That has about as good a chance of happening as shown on todays models as I have of going out with Sophia Vegara 9 days from now.

We expect pictures...
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Post by sroc4 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:36 pm

We are not done trending. RGEm at 500mb looks great by hr48. Much stronger with the energy.

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Post by Guest Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:40 pm

Non-scientific point of view here. I’ve said it over and over on this forum for three years now. Winters follow a pattern. So far this winter it’s wanted to snow. Every event so far has trended colder/wetter as we’ve gotten inside 48 hours. Until something changes I will be optimistic and expect a white Christmas for the entirety of our members.

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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:41 pm

Mikey I don't care about totals I realize I won't see snow just don't want rain.

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:41 pm

@sroc4 wrote:We are not done trending. RGEm at 500mb looks great by hr48. Much stronger with the energy.

Keep in mind that the trending continued west with the snow events earlier this year practically up until the event was underway.  A similar scenario would give rain to everyone in the region except the far northern and western suburbs

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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:43 pm

Math that is what I was trying to say all day that this we sat trend was bad and it was looking warmer for everyone

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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:50 pm

0z GFS rollin
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:53 pm

0z GFS coming in a little west, light snow NW of NYC at hr 78, light rain S&E

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:55 pm

As it strenthens and pulls away at hr 84, everyone is snow, snowing good from NYC and points north and east

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Post by aiannone Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:55 pm

WOW and we have a full out snowstorm for the coast on Christmas day on this run!
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:59 pm

That run was definitely an improvement, if we can get it to strengthen a little bit earlier and pull the cold air in a little sooner, would be a nice snowfall. Blows up a little too late

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Post by track17 Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:00 pm

Don't like what I am hearing with the rain and west.

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Post by frank 638 Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:00 am

Does anyone know how much snow we will have by Xmas morning

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Post by Guest Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:29 am

My how things have changed earlier in the week just 3 days ago the forecast was for 53 and rain. santa rendeer

Sunday NightRain and snow likely after 7pm, becoming all snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Christmas DayA 30 percent chance of snow. High 35

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