NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Possible Christmas Day Storm

+23
Dtone
Vinnydula
Dunnzoo
hyde345
bobjohnsonforthehall
jimv45
docstox12
weatherwatchermom
RJB8525
frank 638
Sanchize06
aiannone
Math23x7
CPcantmeasuresnow
amugs
Snow88
rb924119
jmanley32
track17
mmanisca
sroc4
mikeypizano
Frank_Wx
27 posters

Page 5 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by aiannone Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:27 pm

RB, trends aren’t positive lol. NWS flipped me back to all rain! Lol

aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:54 am

First off lets just say what a turn around from a week ago with respect to what some were expecting for Christmas Day regarding temps and precip expectations. Like some have said earlier the fact that we arent BBQingg outside in a tee shirt and shorts and flip flops like we have the past couple of years is a victory unto itself. That said unfort I'm not liking what I'm seeing regarding the Christmas day storm for the coastal plain and accumulations.  Here is why:

Here is a close up of the 500mb vorticity maps.  I will be using the 00z Euro for all maps.  I have been saying in the past few days that in order for this to trend better I wanted to see the trough dig a little further south into the Tenn Valley, but it looks like is will come up a tad short.  By 06z Dec25th there is a consensus among modeling both short range and Globals that there will be a vort max that is rounding the base of the trough creating a primary low at the surface that tracks through NWestern NY state.  At the same time a secondary low is beginning to form just east of the Delmarva/S jersey shore; south of LI in response to the main vort max of the trough.  As the trough continues east the transfer of energy from the low to the NW to the new primary off the coast takes place and the new low deepens.  

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_31
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_29
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_30
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_32
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_33

The problem with this set up is because the main trough does not dig far enough south it allows that initial primary to get too far N&W of the area.  The result of this is this:  Here are the surface wind maps followed by the surface temps, 925mb, and 850mb temps.  As you can clearly see the result is unfavorable wind directions coming off the ocean until its much too late for the coastal plain.  The coastal plain remains above freezing throughout the event and eastern sections see a warm nose in the mid levels come in.  

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_34
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_35
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_36
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_37

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_41
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_38
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_39
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_40


Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_42
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_43
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_44
Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Ecmwf_45


If the trough dug deeper it would not have allowed the initail primary to gain as much lattitude before transferring to the coast and the colder soln would likely ensue.  I still think some areas N&W will end up with 1-3 isolated 3-5".   There is still 2days until this event unfolds and the freezing lines from surface to 850mb are hovering right around the coastal plain.  There is still time for subtle shifting, 25-50 miles, to the upper level energy; the results of which could lead to differences in outcome. Those within the blue circle would be the ones most likely affected by the shift.  There are still subtle differences in some of the details I posted above among the diff models.  This may boil down to observations, and not models along the coastal plain.  Watch the surface maps for timing and changes in wind direction compared to where the precip is etc.  No matter the outcome it is not 60*  What a Face       

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Surpri11

sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8311
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:07 am

Great write up Scott. Awesome. But there’s no way to spin this. Rain on Christmas morning sucks. Period and Of Story

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:12 am

It looks like the snow gods might smile on me after passing me by for the first 3 weeks of the month.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by jimv45 Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:15 am

I am hearing 3 to 6 up here let's hope it trends colder for all

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1168
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Hopewell jct.

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:16 am

Looks like models came to an agreement. Pretty much what I've been suspecting. Rain to snow. Might stay as all rain for eastern NJ, NYC, and LI. But precip shuts off by 8am. Clearing, wind, and cold to follow.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:26 am

Xmas storm would have been nice for the coast if we had more cold air. Inland areas do very well.

Stupid lakes low
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:29 am

Happy for you Aresian and all you N and W folks. I’d gladly trade all 3 snow events and 10 inches I’ve gotten so far for a couple of inches Christmas Morning. Scott’s post was a kick in the balls this morning. Bullshit.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:35 am

The surface line hovers near the coast throughout the event

33andrain is the worst

Praying for a 2002 bust
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by jmanley32 Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:40 am

Yep go rain on Christmas fun times.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20467
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Snow88 Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:49 am

GFS ticked east and has mostly snow for inland areas to the north and west of the NYC area.

NYC sees some snow at the end on xmas
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2193
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 35
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by mmanisca Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:00 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like models came to an agreement. Pretty much what I've been suspecting. Rain to snow. Might stay as all rain for eastern NJ, NYC, and LI. But precip shuts off by 8am. Clearing, wind, and cold to follow.

Hey Frank not scientific at all but I’ve seen this many times where the model says no snow but at the end we get a little bit of the white stuff to give us a coating and make it feel like Christmas.
I’m holding out hope for it.. The cold air is not that far off..

mmanisca
mmanisca
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 298
Reputation : 3
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 65
Location : Deer Park, Long Island

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:02 am

At this point I will be happy with a coating to a 1 of snow I know it's not much but at least it will give us a white Christmas for NYC I am desperate lol .

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2804
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by amugs Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:14 pm

12K NAM saying white xmas

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Namconus_asnow_neus_17

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15068
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Math23x7 Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:20 pm

Let's be honest: Unless the primary low ends up much further south than we're anticipating, LI ain't getting a White Christmas. Miller freakin B's Mad

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2377
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Yep go rain on Christmas fun times.

Not for everyone.

I think 30 miles north and west of NYC ekes out 2-4 inches. At least it looks like that for now.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7246
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by amugs Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:50 pm

[quote="Math23x7"]Let's be honest: Unless the primary low ends up much further south than we're anticipating, LI ain't getting a White Christmas.  Miller freakin B's Mad [/quote

Yup but you guys were never really in this. This is your typical 1970 -80''s type storm. Western BC through I80.North sees some accumulation. Need the primary to be weaker and die before it gets to Buffalo. If it poops out by Pittsburgh then LI may have a shot and N&W of NYC sees 3 plus.
Like to hear rb thoughts today.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15068
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:54 pm

I hope if this doesn’t work out that next week does. We are 0 for 1 on the threats with this one it looks like down here. I believe this was one of the threats Amugs cited from Witt? I believe.

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Guest Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:56 pm

amugs wrote:12K NAM saying white xmas

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Namconus_asnow_neus_17

Should have had Christmas up at my parents. They are right under the 8 bullseye

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by aiannone Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:10 pm

DSNY has issued a snow alert beginning December 24th at 10pm

_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone
aiannone
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4813
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by rb924119 Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:53 pm

All I'm gonna say, because it's all I have time for, is HERE COME THE SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS. My thoughts from way back when have been north of 78 and west of the Delaware River would see 3-6/4-7" from this, with somebody on here getting thundersnow. I'll let you all carry the discussion from here as I head to work. When troughs go so negative and are so deep, models cannot adjust to the dynamics in play until within the short term. We are entering that period now........ENJOY!!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by amugs Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:28 pm

18Z hold serve

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 IMG_0384.PNG.14e9a58110f146c78d57145697e5a4dd

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15068
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:28 pm

Does anyone know how much snow we will get for the city and Eastward

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2804
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Math23x7 Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:33 pm

frank 638 wrote:Does anyone know how much snow we will get for the city and Eastward

Expect an all rain event for NYC and points south and east.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2377
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by frank 638 Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:36 pm

Ok thanks math . So much for a white Christmas then hopefully we will make this up for New Year's weekend

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2804
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:49 pm

Darn so busy today did not read anything except this last page...sad.....but wish we could just get a few mood flakes...here's to hoping!! peace out...back to cooking and baking...so I can start my nipping the sherry so to speak early tom!!..lol
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3681
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 60
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Guest Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:17 am

GOOD NEWS. YES ITS STILL GOING TO RAIN FOR MOST OF THE BOARD BUT, THE STORM HAS TRENDED SO BADLY FOR THE COAST THAT Red Sox Suck WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO SEE 2-4” NOW SEES ZERO cheers cheers

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

Possible Christmas Day Storm  - Page 5 Empty Re: Possible Christmas Day Storm

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 5 of 9 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum