Possible Christmas Day Storm

RB, trends aren’t positive lol. NWS flipped me back to all rain! Lol

First off lets just say what a turn around from a week ago with respect to what some were expecting for Christmas Day regarding temps and precip expectations. Like some have said earlier the fact that we arent BBQingg outside in a tee shirt and shorts and flip flops like we have the past couple of years is a victory unto itself. That said unfort I'm not liking what I'm seeing regarding the Christmas day storm for the coastal plain and accumulations.  Here is why:

Here is a close up of the 500mb vorticity maps.  I will be using the 00z Euro for all maps.  I have been saying in the past few days that in order for this to trend better I wanted to see the trough dig a little further south into the Tenn Valley, but it looks like is will come up a tad short.  By 06z Dec25th there is a consensus among modeling both short range and Globals that there will be a vort max that is rounding the base of the trough creating a primary low at the surface that tracks through NWestern NY state.  At the same time a secondary low is beginning to form just east of the Delmarva/S jersey shore; south of LI in response to the main vort max of the trough.  As the trough continues east the transfer of energy from the low to the NW to the new primary off the coast takes place and the new low deepens.  







The problem with this set up is because the main trough does not dig far enough south it allows that initial primary to get too far N&W of the area.  The result of this is this:  Here are the surface wind maps followed by the surface temps, 925mb, and 850mb temps.  As you can clearly see the result is unfavorable wind directions coming off the ocean until its much too late for the coastal plain.  The coastal plain remains above freezing throughout the event and eastern sections see a warm nose in the mid levels come in.  


















If the trough dug deeper it would not have allowed the initail primary to gain as much lattitude before transferring to the coast and the colder soln would likely ensue.  I still think some areas N&W will end up with 1-3 isolated 3-5".   There is still 2days until this event unfolds and the freezing lines from surface to 850mb are hovering right around the coastal plain.  There is still time for subtle shifting, 25-50 miles, to the upper level energy; the results of which could lead to differences in outcome. Those within the blue circle would be the ones most likely affected by the shift.  There are still subtle differences in some of the details I posted above among the diff models.  This may boil down to observations, and not models along the coastal plain.  Watch the surface maps for timing and changes in wind direction compared to where the precip is etc.  No matter the outcome it is not 60*         

Great write up Scott. Awesome. But there’s no way to spin this. Rain on Christmas morning sucks. Period and Of Story

It looks like the snow gods might smile on me after passing me by for the first 3 weeks of the month.

I am hearing 3 to 6 up here let's hope it trends colder for all

Looks like models came to an agreement. Pretty much what I've been suspecting. Rain to snow. Might stay as all rain for eastern NJ, NYC, and LI. But precip shuts off by 8am. Clearing, wind, and cold to follow.

Xmas storm would have been nice for the coast if we had more cold air. Inland areas do very well.

Stupid lakes low

Happy for you Aresian and all you N and W folks. I’d gladly trade all 3 snow events and 10 inches I’ve gotten so far for a couple of inches Christmas Morning. Scott’s post was a kick in the balls this morning. Bullshit.

The surface line hovers near the coast throughout the event

33andrain is the worst

Praying for a 2002 bust

Yep go rain on Christmas fun times.

GFS ticked east and has mostly snow for inland areas to the north and west of the NYC area.

NYC sees some snow at the end on xmas

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like models came to an agreement. Pretty much what I've been suspecting. Rain to snow. Might stay as all rain for eastern NJ, NYC, and LI. But precip shuts off by 8am. Clearing, wind, and cold to follow.

Hey Frank not scientific at all but I’ve seen this many times where the model says no snow but at the end we get a little bit of the white stuff to give us a coating and make it feel like Christmas.
I’m holding out hope for it.. The cold air is not that far off..

At this point I will be happy with a coating to a 1 of snow I know it's not much but at least it will give us a white Christmas for NYC I am desperate lol .

12K NAM saying white xmas

Let's be honest: Unless the primary low ends up much further south than we're anticipating, LI ain't getting a White Christmas. Miller freakin B's

jmanley32 wrote:Yep go rain on Christmas fun times.

Not for everyone.

I think 30 miles north and west of NYC ekes out 2-4 inches. At least it looks like that for now.

[quote="Math23x7"]Let's be honest: Unless the primary low ends up much further south than we're anticipating, LI ain't getting a White Christmas.  Miller freakin B's [/quote

Yup but you guys were never really in this. This is your typical 1970 -80''s type storm. Western BC through I80.North sees some accumulation. Need the primary to be weaker and die before it gets to Buffalo. If it poops out by Pittsburgh then LI may have a shot and N&W of NYC sees 3 plus.
Like to hear rb thoughts today.

I hope if this doesn’t work out that next week does. We are 0 for 1 on the threats with this one it looks like down here. I believe this was one of the threats Amugs cited from Witt? I believe.

amugs wrote:12K NAM saying white xmas

Should have had Christmas up at my parents. They are right under the 8 bullseye

DSNY has issued a snow alert beginning December 24th at 10pm

All I'm gonna say, because it's all I have time for, is HERE COME THE SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS. My thoughts from way back when have been north of 78 and west of the Delaware River would see 3-6/4-7" from this, with somebody on here getting thundersnow. I'll let you all carry the discussion from here as I head to work. When troughs go so negative and are so deep, models cannot adjust to the dynamics in play until within the short term. We are entering that period now........ENJOY!!

18Z hold serve

Does anyone know how much snow we will get for the city and Eastward

frank 638 wrote:Does anyone know how much snow we will get for the city and Eastward

Expect an all rain event for NYC and points south and east.

Ok thanks math . So much for a white Christmas then hopefully we will make this up for New Year's weekend

Darn so busy today did not read anything except this last page...sad.....but wish we could just get a few mood flakes...here's to hoping!! peace out...back to cooking and baking...so I can start my nipping the sherry so to speak early tom!!..lol

GOOD NEWS. YES ITS STILL GOING TO RAIN FOR MOST OF THE BOARD BUT, THE STORM HAS TRENDED SO BADLY FOR THE COAST THAT Red Sox Suck WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO SEE 2-4” NOW SEES ZERO