Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th

by **billg315** Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:11 am

Trends are good right now. Also, I’m a believer (to a degree) that sometimes the atmosphere gets in a rut and starts repeating itself every few days. One storm sets the stage for the next. We’ve had two storms take the coastal track in the last week. My guess is the atmosphere is in one of those ruts and this is another coastal, not out to sea.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:12 am

For fun, 0z GFS

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Sn10_024h.us_ne

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:33 am

@Sanchize06 wrote:For fun, 0z GFS

Thats looking good at this time, I am guessing the mention of a Juno like senario was IF the GFS had the triple phase? It was also too far south no?

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:39 am

@rb924119 wrote:COASTAL CRUSHER!!!!!!! ALMOST A TRIPLE PHASE IN TIME FOR US TO REALLY GET BLASTED JUNO STYLE!!!!!

Well I dunno bout crusher verbatim most I see on map is 11 of all places LI lol, but its a good start, Lets get that roidzilla!! I think its on the table if things continue to improve. Hasnt the GFS been really bad at this timeframe the past 2 storms or at least last Fridays, thats my only concern. But root root for the win! go RB!

by **Sanchize06** Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:44 am

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Sanchize06 wrote:For fun, 0z GFS

Thats looking good at this time, I am guessing the mention of a Juno like senario was IF the GFS had the triple phase? It was also too far south no?

Yeah, it looks like the piece of energy diving in from Canada just misses the phase with our storm and actually instead kicks it out east instead. Would think if it did actually phase in, would have came all the way up the coast, but RB would probably know better on what happened there haha

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:19 am

Any one up for euro?

by **docstox12** Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:46 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Rb thanks kid for your expert input.
It's coming!!
GEFS BABY

Bring that baby home Mugsy!!!! Let's go out of this winter with a big blast!!!! Let's get the shore, Island, and Al and J man 20 inches plus too!!!

"Let's go out of this winter a big blast!!!!" he says......little does he know the Euro Weeklies rock us through into April!!!!! This pattern flip of 4-6 weeks of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures was delayed by two weeks over most forecasts. Had the pattern change occurred on time, we would have been coming out of this regime toward the end of March. Since it was displaced two weeks, the pronostication of the Weeklies makes sense against the long-standing forecasts from back in JANUARY for this period of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures in the East. I think this is why recently we have seen the modeling begin reloading our blocking pattern also. I think this could turn out to be a true and classic case of "delayed, not denied" for those of us who issued those long-range outlooks buckle up, because we will very likely continue to have chances at these types of systems and this type of pattern, folks!!!

Ahhhhhhh, good news from rb.I said "one last blast" based on what I heard from Lee Goldberg who said after the possible Monday storm a "pattern change" would occur with a "warm up" next week.Little did I know of the good news you are seeing.My only gripe about the last few snowstorms up here is that they didn't happen at the beginning of that
great cold spell we had starting in late December so the snowpack would have been epic.Oh well, you can't have everything,LOL.

by Smittyaj623 Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:49 am

Meeee when the Euro run?

by **Math23x7** Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:02 am

0Z EURO was a non-event for the northeast.

by **rb924119** Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:13 am

@Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO was a non-event for the northeast.

Like the NAM, though, it made strides toward the GFS aloft. Important.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:09 am

@Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO was a non-event for the northeast.

Not surprised

by **docstox12** Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:17 am

Well, this morning NWS has me at 30-40% Monday-Monday night, but all snow now,Yesterday, they had rain/snow mix.They are still seeing a few models taking it OTS but do say there is a possibility.That keeps it alive in my book.Frank, Mugs, and rb keeping the faith so this looks interesting and a lot of fun.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:41 am

O6z gfs south and weak o6z nam south and elongated. Not encouraging but let's see what today brings.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:05 am

@jmanley32 wrote:O6z gfs south and weak o6z nam south and elongated. Not encouraging but let's see what today brings.

Oh boy, sucked in again are we to the OP runs. Give it time before you jump off the cliff.
Windshield wiper effect.
H5 is fine at this point in time. Needs a few tweaks but nothing major.
EPS correcting West.
11 membes around OBX

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Eps_slp_lows_ma_16.png.34ba5d0280a6537898f7df70007f05bc

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Eps_slp_lows_ma_16.png.34ba5d0280a6537898f7df70007f05bc

Then this.
Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Eps_slp_lows_east_16.png.714f8d8338bf4d51f16b432ef213615c

At this stage I'll sign.

by **mikeypizano** Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:33 am

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:51 am

@mikeypizano wrote:

And they're never wrong. Rolling Eyes

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:17 am

Srefs leaning west

by **mikeypizano** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:21 am

That’s why they’re called Accuweather CP....

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:32 am

NAM going to be very diff this run. Very nice trends through 54

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:33 am

@sroc4 wrote:NAM going to be very diff this run. Very nice trends through 54

following

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:36 am

Phasing occuring over the heart land raising heights out ahead. Very important. Follow the 552 line out ahead of it. Below is 12z followed by the prev 3 runs for same time frame

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_43

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_43

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_45

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_47

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_49

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:37 am

If we're paying attention to trends (on all models not just NAM) I would argue the PNA ridge has strengthened, NAO block has weakened, northern short wave has slowed down, but the upper low associated with the confluence has remained the same. 3/4 is not bad. Especially in baseball. Still have some time to make this 4/4.

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:39 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:If we're paying attention to trends (on all models not just NAM) I would argue the PNA ridge has strengthened, NAO block has weakened, northern short wave has slowed down, but the upper low associated with the confluence has remained the same. 3/4 is not bad. Especially in baseball. Still have some time to make this 4/4.

Absolutely. And that PNA is a reason for the change in the timing/strength of the N and S vorts solns

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 am

N kicker is slower into the picture. Wioll it come in and dive N/S into the back side of this as it reaches the coast?

Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th - Page 4 Namconus_z500_vort_us_45

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:43 am

This run on the NAM will likely end up a Miller B type set up

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