Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Trends are good right now. Also, I’m a believer (to a degree) that sometimes the atmosphere gets in a rut and starts repeating itself every few days. One storm sets the stage for the next. We’ve had two storms take the coastal track in the last week. My guess is the atmosphere is in one of those ruts and this is another coastal, not out to sea.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Thats looking good at this time, I am guessing the mention of a Juno like senario was IF the GFS had the triple phase? It was also too far south no?
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Well I dunno bout crusher verbatim most I see on map is 11 of all places LI lol, but its a good start, Lets get that roidzilla!! I think its on the table if things continue to improve. Hasnt the GFS been really bad at this timeframe the past 2 storms or at least last Fridays, thats my only concern. But root root for the win! go RB!@rb924119 wrote:COASTAL CRUSHER!!!!!!! ALMOST A TRIPLE PHASE IN TIME FOR US TO REALLY GET BLASTED JUNO STYLE!!!!!
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
@jmanley32 wrote:Thats looking good at this time, I am guessing the mention of a Juno like senario was IF the GFS had the triple phase? It was also too far south no?
Yeah, it looks like the piece of energy diving in from Canada just misses the phase with our storm and actually instead kicks it out east instead. Would think if it did actually phase in, would have came all the way up the coast, but RB would probably know better on what happened there haha
Sanchize06- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Any one up for euro?
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
@rb924119 wrote:@docstox12 wrote:
Bring that baby home Mugsy!!!! Let's go out of this winter with a big blast!!!! Let's get the shore, Island, and Al and J man 20 inches plus too!!!
"Let's go out of this winter a big blast!!!!" he says......little does he know the Euro Weeklies rock us through into April!!!!! This pattern flip of 4-6 weeks of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures was delayed by two weeks over most forecasts. Had the pattern change occurred on time, we would have been coming out of this regime toward the end of March. Since it was displaced two weeks, the pronostication of the Weeklies makes sense against the long-standing forecasts from back in JANUARY for this period of time-mean troughing, storminess, and below-average temperatures in the East. I think this is why recently we have seen the modeling begin reloading our blocking pattern also. I think this could turn out to be a true and classic case of "delayed, not denied" for those of us who issued those long-range outlooksbuckle up, because we will very likely continue to have chances at these types of systems and this type of pattern, folks!!!
Ahhhhhhh, good news from rb.I said "one last blast" based on what I heard from Lee Goldberg who said after the possible Monday storm a "pattern change" would occur with a "warm up" next week.Little did I know of the good news you are seeing.My only gripe about the last few snowstorms up here is that they didn't happen at the beginning of that
great cold spell we had starting in late December so the snowpack would have been epic.Oh well, you can't have everything,LOL.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Meeee when the Euro run?
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
0Z EURO was a non-event for the northeast.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
@Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO was a non-event for the northeast.
Like the NAM, though, it made strides toward the GFS aloft. Important.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
@Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO was a non-event for the northeast.
Not surprised
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Well, this morning NWS has me at 30-40% Monday-Monday night, but all snow now,Yesterday, they had rain/snow mix.They are still seeing a few models taking it OTS but do say there is a possibility.That keeps it alive in my book.Frank, Mugs, and rb keeping the faith so this looks interesting and a lot of fun.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
O6z gfs south and weak o6z nam south and elongated. Not encouraging but let's see what today brings.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
@jmanley32 wrote:O6z gfs south and weak o6z nam south and elongated. Not encouraging but let's see what today brings.
Oh boy, sucked in again are we to the OP runs. Give it time before you jump off the cliff.
Windshield wiper effect.
H5 is fine at this point in time. Needs a few tweaks but nothing major.
EPS correcting West.
11 membes around OBX

Then this.

At this stage I'll sign.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Srefs leaning west
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
That’s why they’re called Accuweather CP....
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
NAM going to be very diff this run. Very nice trends through 54
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
@sroc4 wrote:NAM going to be very diff this run. Very nice trends through 54
following
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
Phasing occuring over the heart land raising heights out ahead. Very important. Follow the 552 line out ahead of it. Below is 12z followed by the prev 3 runs for same time frame








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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
If we're paying attention to trends (on all models not just NAM) I would argue the PNA ridge has strengthened, NAO block has weakened, northern short wave has slowed down, but the upper low associated with the confluence has remained the same. 3/4 is not bad. Especially in baseball. Still have some time to make this 4/4.
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
@Frank_Wx wrote:If we're paying attention to trends (on all models not just NAM) I would argue the PNA ridge has strengthened, NAO block has weakened, northern short wave has slowed down, but the upper low associated with the confluence has remained the same. 3/4 is not bad. Especially in baseball. Still have some time to make this 4/4.
Absolutely. And that PNA is a reason for the change in the timing/strength of the N and S vorts solns
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
N kicker is slower into the picture. Wioll it come in and dive N/S into the back side of this as it reaches the coast?


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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Another Possible Godzilla Mon-Tues, March 12th-13th
This run on the NAM will likely end up a Miller B type set up
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS 35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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