January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

Managed a dusting on grassy surfaces..patchy though. More sleet now. Temp down to 33*

This snow is going to have to explode from the sky if there's going to be a foot on the ground before the storm moves through. The NWS is saying there's going to be a period of 1-2"/hr and possibly as much as 3"/hr at some point, but I don't know if I'll be awake when or if it arrives.

22.1 and heavy snow, 2.3 inches so far.

I've dropped over 8 degrees since the snow started. I'm not really sure what's happening.

33*and DE point at 33* heavy coating on ground. Was up in Nanuet and about 1" and snow.moderately.  any snow is good snow.
And to the question about which model handled it's best at this time I'd have to agree that the euro did the best. GFS was an absolute blow torch and a massive cutter up the App spine. That did not happen or is. Euro was west and then under even it's EPS ens had this first, went away and then came back.
NAM was the first to catch the warm push. It overdid it and then retracted.
IF we kept the EPO this would be a doozy of a storm for all period. Onto the next one.
CAD going to hold tough in Northern Rockland and Orange and Sullivan Counties from observations and 850 maps.
Enjoy.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:22.1 and heavy snow, 2.3 inches so far.

I've dropped over 8 degrees since the snow started. I'm not really sure what's happening.

CAD, the drain from the HP moving east in right through your area into PA from NFSWX this map. Everyone hping the warmth of models and as SROC said CAD surprise's in store 

TheAresian wrote:This snow is going to have to explode from the sky if there's going to be a foot on the ground before the storm moves through. The NWS is saying there's going to be a period of 1-2"/hr and possibly as much as 3"/hr at some point, but I don't know if I'll be awake when or if it arrives.

Where is Painted Post NY ?

amugs wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:22.1 and heavy snow, 2.3 inches so far.

I've dropped over 8 degrees since the snow started. I'm not really sure what's happening.

CAD, the drain from the HP moving east in right through your area into PA from NFSWX this map. Everyone hping the warmth of models and as SROC said CAD surprise's in store 

Thanks Mugs, but 8 degrees in three hours? I know it is a cold air mass but I don't think any models saw that tonight. Could use it at the 850 level but I guess that's not happening.

1190ftalt wrote:

TheAresian wrote:This snow is going to have to explode from the sky if there's going to be a foot on the ground before the storm moves through. The NWS is saying there's going to be a period of 1-2"/hr and possibly as much as 3"/hr at some point, but I don't know if I'll be awake when or if it arrives.

Where is Painted Post NY ?

It's about 70 miles west of Binghamton.

I would caution those up north. I’m deep in South Jersey tonight and we went from 40* at 7 pm to 47* now. So the warm air is moving in. How far north it gets I don’t know, but it’s here.

Moderate/heavy snow, 2.7 inches so far.

Down to 21.7 from 30 when the snow started.I didn't expect a drop at the surface like this, and I don't think any models did either. I'm hoping this doesn't set me up for an ice storm later tonight. I'd rather flip to rain.

TheAresian wrote:

1190ftalt wrote:

TheAresian wrote:This snow is going to have to explode from the sky if there's going to be a foot on the ground before the storm moves through. The NWS is saying there's going to be a period of 1-2"/hr and possibly as much as 3"/hr at some point, but I don't know if I'll be awake when or if it arrives.

Where is Painted Post NY ?

It's about 70 miles west of Binghamton.

I'm thinking that might be the 100th time I've seen that question asked on this forum. I believe I was one of the first ten to ask it.

For those still suggesting GFS was off on this, I’ll just say here is the current radar. 3/4 of NJ is raining (or warm enough for rain but dry) as is the immediate NYC. And it’s not even 11 pm yet. Temps in SNJ are already soaring into the upper 40s and will likely break 50 by dawn. So I’d still have to say the GFS was in my opinion, closest to what this storm really has turned out to be. GFS did have some snow at the outset for many areas, don’t forget that.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

TheAresian wrote:

1190ftalt wrote:

TheAresian wrote:This snow is going to have to explode from the sky if there's going to be a foot on the ground before the storm moves through. The NWS is saying there's going to be a period of 1-2"/hr and possibly as much as 3"/hr at some point, but I don't know if I'll be awake when or if it arrives.

Where is Painted Post NY ?

It's about 70 miles west of Binghamton.

I'm thinking that might be the 100th time I've seen that question asked on this forum. I believe I was one of the first ten to ask it.

If Corningware was still a big thing, I'd say Corning. However, the company has switched from housewares to Gorilla Glass so it doesn't mean as much anymore.

My parents took this picture from my house on LI. Heavy coating, currently a snow/sleet mix. Temp is 32.6 and holding steady

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Moderate/heavy snow, 2.7 inches so far.

Down to 21.7 from 30 when the snow started.I didn't expect a drop at the surface like this, and I don't think any models did either. I'm hoping this doesn't set me up for an ice storm later tonight. I'd rather flip to rain.

That is really bad. Your surface temperatures are primed for a bad ice storm. I don’t think mid levels will support snow much more than an hour or two and it’s going to take a long time for surface to rise. Hope for best.

I would agree CP. the projection of prolonged freezing rain for you looks very possible now.

Snow has turned into sleet. 1 inch on my backyard deck table.

heehaw453 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Moderate/heavy snow, 2.7 inches so far.

Down to 21.7 from 30 when the snow started.I didn't expect a drop at the surface like this, and I don't think any models did either. I'm hoping this doesn't set me up for an ice storm later tonight. I'd rather flip to rain.

That is really bad. Your surface temperatures are primed for a bad ice storm.  I don’t think mid levels will support snow much more than an hour or two and it’s going to take a long time for surface to rise. Hope for best.

Thanks, I think I'm gonna need it. This is the scenario I was hoping would not come to fruition.

If the damn mid levels weren't projected to go so high I'd be happy,

22 and moderate snow. Didn't expect it to get this cold, I think we are in for the dreaded ice CP.

For a few hours there it looked nice. The change over has begun here. The sleet has mixed with snow. Accumulation of maybe 1/2 inch before conversion.

jimv45 wrote:22 and moderate snow. Didn't expect it to get this cold, I think we are in for the dreaded ice CP.

A little over 3 inches snow now Jim, and 21.7 and holding in moderate to occasionally heavy snow.

I wish there was some way those 850's didn't warm up tonight, but every model says it's coming. Most likely we're in for ice, the question is how much.

about .5" snow, now windy with sleet and rain. Temp at 33.1°

33.5 on LI. 28.7 In Binghamton.

snow mixing and changing to sleet after 2", temp 31.5°

At my low for the evening of 21.2 and sleet now mixing with the snow. No you can't make it up.

4.0 inches so far and it will probably take a miracle now to make 5.

It started snowing here about 1:45 Saturday afternoon and I don't think there's more than maybe 3" on the ground. The NWS is still calling for over a foot so there must be some absolutely monstrous bands heading through at some point.

We are loading them up on the truck now Aresian. If we dont hit any traffic we will be there by dawn lol. Shall we start unloading in the driveway first?