Tropical Storm Isaias

amugs wrote:

billg315 wrote:

amugs wrote:GSP South closed for trees on roadway from Tornados in SNJ

Twitter Link
https://twitter.com/BobKissling/status/1290660129336111109?s=20

Yep mugs that was right by my shorehouse. My friend down there saw it from our deck.

Yikes!!!
@ RB the cell looks to be just about at your door now

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t been able to post meaningfully because of work and family, but first and foremost I’d like to quickly say that my preliminary outlook for this storm was half and half. The bad-half was my track, as I was about 100 miles too Far East. While my ideas of a deeper trough verified, the eastward progression did not. I’ll have to go back and see why later. The good-half of my outlook was the intensity; this system pretty much remained steady-state after the initial strengthening occurred upon exiting the islands (fluctuated around a mean high-end tropical storm).

That said, I am really not seeing the reason for a lot of the excitement for these big winds up this way. I think it’s pretty much going be the rain that becomes the story with this system. Wind-wise, I don’t think it’s anything to write home about. You’re not dealing with the type/degree of baroclinicity that you need in order to generate the kinds of wind speeds some of the models are printing out. The dynamics aloft are impressive, no doubt, which is why you’re seeing all the rain across PA. But the problem is that’s largely not going to translate all the way to the surface, in my opinion, because of how the dynamics are being distributed. I think those of us along and east of the track see some 50-60 kt gusts, but no more than that. I’m on LBI, so I’ll be the first to say I was wrong, though lol

aiannone wrote:Suffolk county

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t been able to post meaningfully because of work and family, but first and foremost I’d like to quickly say that my preliminary outlook for this storm was half and half. The bad-half was my track, as I was about 100 miles too Far East. While my ideas of a deeper trough verified, the eastward progression did not. I’ll have to go back and see why later. The good-half of my outlook was the intensity; this system pretty much remained steady-state after the initial strengthening occurred upon exiting the islands (fluctuated around a mean high-end tropical storm).

That said, I am really not seeing the reason for a lot of the excitement for these big winds up this way. I think it’s pretty much going be the rain that becomes the story with this system. Wind-wise, I don’t think it’s anything to write home about. You’re not dealing with the type/degree of baroclinicity that you need in order to generate the kinds of wind speeds some of the models are printing out. The dynamics aloft are impressive, no doubt, which is why you’re seeing all the rain across PA. But the problem is that’s largely not going to translate all the way to the surface, in my opinion, because of how the dynamics are being distributed. I think those of us along and east of the track see some 50-60 kt gusts, but no more than that. I’m on LBI, so I’ll be the first to say I was wrong, though lol

Mother Nature heard you, and she wasn’t happy you doubted her.

dkodgis wrote:10:15 am. Sky just opened up. Deluge. Winds out of the NE (no surprise) at 6 mph. Yep, heavy drenching sheets of rain now.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I haven’t been able to post meaningfully because of work and family, but first and foremost I’d like to quickly say that my preliminary outlook for this storm was half and half. The bad-half was my track, as I was about 100 miles too Far East. While my ideas of a deeper trough verified, the eastward progression did not. I’ll have to go back and see why later. The good-half of my outlook was the intensity; this system pretty much remained steady-state after the initial strengthening occurred upon exiting the islands (fluctuated around a mean high-end tropical storm).

That said, I am really not seeing the reason for a lot of the excitement for these big winds up this way. I think it’s pretty much going be the rain that becomes the story with this system. Wind-wise, I don’t think it’s anything to write home about. You’re not dealing with the type/degree of baroclinicity that you need in order to generate the kinds of wind speeds some of the models are printing out. The dynamics aloft are impressive, no doubt, which is why you’re seeing all the rain across PA. But the problem is that’s largely not going to translate all the way to the surface, in my opinion, because of how the dynamics are being distributed. I think those of us along and east of the track see some 50-60 kt gusts, but no more than that. I’m on LBI, so I’ll be the first to say I was wrong, though lol

Mother Nature heard you, and she wasn’t happy you doubted her.

in rays defense that was a localized tornado. Winds were forecast to be widespread so far haven't seen that but it's only 12:30.