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December 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by brownie on Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:24 pm

It snowed for most of the day here.  Picked up a nice coating on the deck, grass and shrubs, though it has melted off the driveway and walk.  Still looks beautiful and will look even more beautiful when I turn on the outside Christmas lights.  

Just what I needed today!!

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Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:37 pm

I STILL have some snowflakes flying here, but radar indicates this is the last round. Solid coating to an inch on non-paved surfaces. Trees looked beautiful coated with snow.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:40 pm

It is not often I’d say a storm giving me a coating to an inch only on colder surfaces “overperformed,” but this one sure did at least aesthetically. Several hours of beautiful light to moderate snowfall to watch and a coating of white on trees and rooftops with light snow still falling at sunset. Much more than I expected.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:49 pm

We had an hour of beautiful falling snow today!!!! just sat and gazed out the window!!! low temp today was 29* Hi temp today was 35*
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:59 pm

Unfort I didnt get the same over achieving that many to my west experienced as it seems the QPF fell apart once over LI, but I did definitely have steady flurries for about a half hour. It was so nice to see, and once again that smell of snow. I love it!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
WINTER 2020/2021 SNOW TOTALS 7.25"(First snow Dec 16th/17th)
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"[/size]
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Post by amugs on Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:32 pm

Snowed for 4 hours here steady in light to moderate fashion - IF it happened 5-6 hours earlier we woudl have had 1" of white gold coating the ground BUT it was not here just west of me there was stickage.
Eye turn to next week midweek 1st one not the show though may seem like it
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 1607979600-vzCmiGhZGMI
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 1607990400-v5v5pyIcHT8

This could be the show - my bday present to ya'll??
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 1608184800-3ljCQBtEguk

Strung out a bit here on GEFS - but signal is there
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 1608184800-JHw0oszcmSA

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Post by amugs on Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:40 pm

EPS has a good signal at this range and the torch some were expecting isnt so torchy but rather slightly AN

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Eo1MWqbW4AAOxCM?format=png&name=900x900

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-t2m_f-1607536800-1607907600-1608325200-40

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Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:44 am

Euro and icon are a major snow storm Wednesday into Thursday of next week. Nice cold high pressure to on North and with the block over Greenland the ow stalls just stalls south and east of Long Island the CMC and the GFS are warmer with mainly rain. Still 7 days to go and all major models showing a system for next week with the Greenland block my hunch is we'll see some wintry precipitation here with this system.as for the Monday night into Tuesday Storm still have to monitor that as most of the models brought the wave back this evening with just a glancing blow but some of the ensembles take it further north to impact our area with rain and snow very exciting times ahead
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Post by Radz on Thu Dec 10, 2020 3:04 am

Nice look on the models for next week- I’m guessing the cold solution wins out with the -nao, fingers crossed
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Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:15 am

The 6z GFS has one to two feet of snow for most of Northern New Jersey in the lower Hudson Valley in the next two weeks. Lesser amounts near the coast. What a pattern coming up this could be epic I never seen such deep red over Greenland
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Post by algae888 on Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:20 am

There could be a lot of winter forecast bust this year. History tells us when you get a legit negative AO and negative Nao in December it usually lasts for a while these don't break down too quickly. The very good news is this is happening as we are heading into Peak climo when we really do not need very cold air to make things work very exciting times ahead not a lot of sleep for the next few weeks or months
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 10, 2020 7:28 am

@algae888 wrote:There could be a lot of winter forecast bust this year. History tells us when you get a legit negative AO and negative Nao in December it usually lasts for a while these don't break down too quickly. The very good news is this is happening as we are heading into Peak climo when we really do not need very cold air to make things work very exciting times ahead not a lot of sleep for the next few weeks or months

I would take my chances with a good Atlantic and support from the arctic even with a subpar Pacific. The Atlantic support makes cutters much less likely. Being better than last year should be easy enough though.

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Post by dkodgis on Thu Dec 10, 2020 8:56 am

Mugs, that would be a nice present to us all. Also, how nice you are here to give it.
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 10, 2020 9:40 am

IT"S COMING!!!! ALL 3 GLOBALS Are HARPING/BARKING FOR A NICE BDAY PRESENT TO MY FAMILY HERE!!!!

My theory on why we are such blocking is 2 part:
1> All of the Convective Heat Release from the Numerous Hcanes - remember this heat has to go somewhere and where you have these numerous storms - though some should not have been named IMO but that's different story for another time, we have this tremendous release of heat into the arctic region. these highly charged Water Vapor molecules, remember salt water is charged, needs to go up into teh atmosphere and it usually travels to......the geomagnetic pole. Now with such a late season influx of storms - many were after Sept. we had massive amounts heading into poleward. Now it doesn't all make it up there but if you notice a good number of storms went up above the 50N Latitude. Now again just a theory on this I have to due some more research to pick up some analogs to see the validity of this idea.
Part 2 - Low Solar Lag effect. It takes a year or so for this to affect the earth in larger, broader ways and this started back in 2017
2020 total: 206 days (60%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
The majority of the quiet sun days were in teh 2nd half of that year (2017).
We have seen thorugh teh course of historical records relating to weather and geomagnetic events such as Earthquakes adn Volcanoes that Low Solar will produce PV splits, elongations, Strong Arctic High Pressure and Greenland Block after the low solar period - the last time we had such a blocky artic...2009 -10, and again 10-11.
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)

Now again will this come to fruition??? IS anyone's guess but we know that we have had such and when we look at the low solar cycle chart - the time between the ending of one cycle and the beginning of another we have blocky arctic and Antarctic winters.
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Sunspot-activity-observation-dec6-e1544118001987

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 VDATdDkJKWbKNbzqIsLrP6JoNR2bDOdRpytTXr_62W7O8cbE1nF2cA4ixhrDtyniLyelUuV85KD6KqDamQSCIBUwk4J_QEJKOIRpk9YWEMQI

Long term cycle
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 400px-Sunspot_Numbers

Chart to show Worldwide temperatures over a period of time taken from tree rings and ice core samples.
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Figure-2

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 10, 2020 11:14 am

You can really see how blocking (-NAO) helps with our snow chances on the 12Z GFS today for 12/17. Strong high just gets pinned and cold press oozes down from it. With progressive flows this is much more difficult to keep the cold around. High would scoot quickly and we'd loose the cold quickly as the storm would tend to want to cut west.

I'm not paying attention to op runs ATTM, but this op run clearly shows the magic of blocking IMO.

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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 10, 2020 12:52 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:You can really see how blocking (-NAO) helps with our snow chances on the 12Z GFS today for 12/17.  Strong high just gets pinned and cold press oozes down from it.  With progressive flows this is much more difficult to keep the cold around.  High would scoot quickly and we'd loose the cold quickly as the storm would tend to want to cut west.

I'm not paying attention to op runs ATTM, but this op run clearly shows the magic of blocking IMO.

Concur!
Amazing how the blocking has major affects on the total downstream pattern and arctic region over the top
The AO, NAO couplet and add the PNA for a three some like the old Three Dog Night band!

Look at that Block - teh red orangy colors over Greenland
AS SROC said hoping not a head fake!!
December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1607580000-1607677200-1608962400-20

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 10, 2020 12:53 pm

Gefs show maybe some white gold Monday/Tuesday as well and multiple opportunities after that time frame

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:43 pm

Everyone is in the game IMO for the 12/16-12/17 threat. Jersey coastal plain very much so. I love high pressure pumping fresh cold air into a deep moisture fetch. The high is just pinned and is the factory that is required for most significant widespread snows to occur. The track will adjust more SE IMO as the models catch onto the blocking. This could be a very significant event.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:09 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Everyone is in the game IMO for the 12/16-12/17 threat.  Jersey coastal plain very much so.  I love high pressure pumping fresh cold air into a deep moisture fetch.  The high is just pinned and is the factory that is required for most significant widespread snows to occur.  The track will adjust more SE IMO as the models catch onto the blocking.  This could be a very significant event.  

I hope so..fingers crossed
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 10, 2020 5:41 pm

GEFS coming N with this 1st wave - appetizer peeps colder and nice coating to couple of inches.
to those boohooers the pattern is TOTALLY different with this, the Atlantic is cooperating bigly.
We have all 3 major models showing this - is it CCP interference? Putin Collusion? If so then close the board down LOL!

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 1607979600-KvdaXHgbXe8

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Dec 11, 2020 1:18 am

@amugs wrote:GEFS coming N with this 1st wave - appetizer peeps colder and nice coating to couple of inches.
to those boohooers the pattern is TOTALLY different with this, the Atlantic is cooperating bigly.
We have all 3 major models showing this - is it CCP interference? Putin Collusion? If so then close the board down LOL!

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 1607979600-KvdaXHgbXe8

Yeah, I could see C-1" for some on that. BL temps are marginal.

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Post by algae888 on Fri Dec 11, 2020 6:18 am

No changes on guidance overnight. Need this to hold another 36 to 48 hours to get really excited about mid-week system. Still have to watch for a minor event on Monday but temperatures are not in our favor for any accumulations
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Post by frank 638 on Fri Dec 11, 2020 6:29 am

The weather channel already has me for next wed into wed night for 6 to 8 inches for snow I know it’s way to early for snow amounts and things will change

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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Dec 11, 2020 7:21 am

@frank 638 wrote:The weather channel already has me for next wed into wed night for 6 to 8 inches for snow I know it’s way to early for snow amounts and things will change

That's just ridiculous, way too early to put out accumulations!

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Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  9"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs on Fri Dec 11, 2020 7:47 am

Pump the breaks for Monday system 1st peeps - told ya'll it was coming North

December 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 6 Eo9PiZGW8AQrSZU?format=jpg&name=medium


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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