Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

18Z NAM would be a significant to major event here.

Upton Disco

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active wx pattern expected in the Long Term. The first sys is a
coastal low which emerges off of the Carolina Coast around 12Z Sun,
then deepens while tracking east of Cape Cod around 00Z Mon. This
low looks like a classic 4-8 inch snow maker, with amounts dependent
on the track. Right now, all of the modeling, except for the NAM,
are too far east to place these higher amounts across the cwa. There
is enough consensus however to increase snow chances to around 50
percent, and to introduce accums of up to 2 inches. A wwd trend
closer to the NAM will require an increase in amounts.

18Z RGEM Trending in the right direction

12z


18z

18Z Icon looks pretty solid too. More potent storm than it's 12Z run. Inside D3 on this at this point.

18Z ICON

ICON not wavering once again - it will be a quickie but it will dump on us. The H% evolution is coming back to what we want.

This is incredible wow we are getting dumped on if this comes to fruition in a bigly way!!

18z GFS joins the party

Alex- do we benefit more than others on this storm in Suffolk?

dsix85 wrote:Alex- do we benefit more than others on this storm in Suffolk?

At the time being, yes. But still room to wiggle. Further east right now is in line for most QPF, but be weary of franks post. I think that warm air is really only an issue for SNJ, but not if the NW trend goes too far.

GFS is definitely getting better. Getting a negative tilt to the 500mb trough as well as a stout SE ridge. My guess this gets even closer to the coast based on that.

GEFS - Nice look here

Just a quick drop in liking what I am seeing! Still tempering any expectations but I am glad to see things are trending back towards a de cent sized storm, nam was beautiful with 6-12 for most.

amugs wrote:ICON not wavering once again - it will be a quickie but it will dump on us. The H% evolution is coming back to what we want.

This is incredible wow we are getting dumped on if this comes to fruition in a bigly way!!

Wow thats awesome for a lot of the area, i love seeing that band hit me, looks like go be quick but heavy potential. Looks like LI stays under the band the longest and SE CT.

This supports more lift for snowfall in the Northeast on Sunday. https://t.co/vi07YKgKgA

— Miguel Pierre (@mpierre19) February 4, 2021

Nam looks like its a little east from last run

TWC is now predicting 3-5 inches for my area on Sunday. That's an improvement from the mixed precip they had 2 days ago and 1-3 yesterday.

Nam looks to be a scraper for our area this run.

Southern slider

That'd be cool for SNJ to get a foot+.

Solid NAM runs.
12K about 100 miles SE of where it was at 12&18z.
3K NAM in line with 12z and 18z 12K NAM.
Good to see overall.
2-4 NNJ
3-6 CNJ
4-8 SNJ/DE
Solid storm overall.
Look for jogs tomorrow in response to this coming ashore tomorrow by 12z maybe not fully sampled until 18/0z

Nice NW trends on Ukie and Euro tonight. Both brush the area with anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow NW to SE.

First samples from land included in today’s runs probably for 12Z and forward. Let’s see if NW trends we’ve seen all winter so far continue.

CP, up with the larks I see.

If the trend continues north-west, and possible heavy snow moves up the map, I will be delighted to get more snow. By tonight into Sat am, let's see.

At 6z

Hits I95

 

3k  

ICON 

RGEM 

SREFS 

GFS

 

Gefs came further west.