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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:09 pm

Upton Disco

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active wx pattern expected in the Long Term. The first sys is a
coastal low which emerges off of the Carolina Coast around 12Z Sun,
then deepens while tracking east of Cape Cod around 00Z Mon. This
low looks like a classic 4-8 inch snow maker, with amounts dependent
on the track. Right now, all of the modeling, except for the NAM,
are too far east to place these higher amounts across the cwa. There
is enough consensus however to increase snow chances to around 50
percent, and to introduce accums of up to 2 inches. A wwd trend
closer to the NAM will require an increase in amounts.
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:14 pm

18Z RGEM Trending in the right direction

12z
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Pratep16

18z
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Pratep17
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:23 pm

18Z Icon looks pretty solid too. More potent storm than it's 12Z run. Inside D3 on this at this point.

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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:28 pm

Lee Goldberg said he thinks this is going to be a 6 to 8 hour storm

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:29 pm

18Z ICON
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Icon_m11
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Icon_m12
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:39 pm

ICON not wavering once again - it will be a quickie but it will dump on us. The H% evolution is coming back to what we want.

This is incredible wow we are getting dumped on if this comes to fruition in a bigly way!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_fh63-75.gif.52da406ae3f9fbdb9f32ec882f2903ab

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:54 pm

18z GFS joins the party
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Pratep18
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Post by dsix85 Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:54 pm

Alex- do we benefit more than others on this storm in Suffolk?

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:56 pm

@dsix85 wrote:Alex- do we benefit more than others on this storm in Suffolk?

At the time being, yes. But still room to wiggle. Further east right now is in line for most QPF, but be weary of franks post. I think that warm air is really only an issue for SNJ, but not if the NW trend goes too far.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:00 pm

GFS is definitely getting better. Getting a negative tilt to the 500mb trough as well as a stout SE ridge. My guess this gets even closer to the coast based on that.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:59 pm

GEFS - Nice look here
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 CA0A1205-855D-4EF4-B938-E99A9967EBC5.png.7e30af925c0b493800b3fc7d9f6c739b

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 8E4554D7-FFB5-4F42-B8B3-61D0CC14EDE6.png.95cff16c9665747d91f412d798e49ee3

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:00 pm

Just a quick drop in liking what I am seeing! Still tempering any expectations but I am glad to see things are trending back towards a de cent sized storm, nam was beautiful with 6-12 for most.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:02 pm

@amugs wrote:ICON not wavering once again - it will be a quickie but it will dump on us. The H% evolution is coming back to what we want.

This is incredible wow we are getting dumped on if this comes to fruition in a bigly way!!

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_fh63-75.gif.52da406ae3f9fbdb9f32ec882f2903ab
Wow thats awesome for a lot of the area, i love seeing that band hit me, looks like go be quick but heavy potential. Looks like LI stays under the band the longest and SE CT.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:07 pm


_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:22 pm

Nam looks like its a little east from last run
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:26 pm

TWC is now predicting 3-5 inches for my area on Sunday. That's an improvement from the mixed precip they had 2 days ago and 1-3 yesterday.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:29 pm

Nam looks to be a scraper for our area this run.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:32 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Image_10
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:35 pm

Southern slider Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 Image_32
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Post by Irish Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:43 pm

That'd be cool for SNJ to get a foot+.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:06 pm

Solid NAM runs.
12K about 100 miles SE of where it was at 12&18z.
3K NAM in line with 12z and 18z 12K NAM.
Good to see overall.
2-4 NNJ
3-6 CNJ
4-8 SNJ/DE
Solid storm overall.
Look for jogs tomorrow in response to this coming ashore tomorrow by 12z maybe not fully sampled until 18/0z

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:59 am

Nice NW trends on Ukie and Euro tonight. Both brush the area with anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow NW to SE.

First samples from land included in today’s runs probably for 12Z and forward. Let’s see if NW trends we’ve seen all winter so far continue.
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Post by dkodgis Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:47 am

CP, up with the larks I see.

If the trend continues north-west, and possible heavy snow moves up the map, I will be delighted to get more snow. By tonight into Sat am, let's see.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:54 am

At 6z

Hits I95

 

3k  

ICON 

RGEM 

SREFS 

GFS

 

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:18 am

Gefs came further west.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 6 601d1a10
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