Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
18Z NAM would be a significant to major event here.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Upton Disco
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active wx pattern expected in the Long Term. The first sys is a
coastal low which emerges off of the Carolina Coast around 12Z Sun,
then deepens while tracking east of Cape Cod around 00Z Mon. This
low looks like a classic 4-8 inch snow maker, with amounts dependent
on the track. Right now, all of the modeling, except for the NAM,
are too far east to place these higher amounts across the cwa. There
is enough consensus however to increase snow chances to around 50
percent, and to introduce accums of up to 2 inches. A wwd trend
closer to the NAM will require an increase in amounts.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active wx pattern expected in the Long Term. The first sys is a
coastal low which emerges off of the Carolina Coast around 12Z Sun,
then deepens while tracking east of Cape Cod around 00Z Mon. This
low looks like a classic 4-8 inch snow maker, with amounts dependent
on the track. Right now, all of the modeling, except for the NAM,
are too far east to place these higher amounts across the cwa. There
is enough consensus however to increase snow chances to around 50
percent, and to introduce accums of up to 2 inches. A wwd trend
closer to the NAM will require an increase in amounts.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
_________________
-Alex Iannone-
aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
18Z Icon looks pretty solid too. More potent storm than it's 12Z run. Inside D3 on this at this point.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Lee Goldberg said he thinks this is going to be a 6 to 8 hour storm
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
ICON not wavering once again - it will be a quickie but it will dump on us. The H% evolution is coming back to what we want.
This is incredible wow we are getting dumped on if this comes to fruition in a bigly way!!
This is incredible wow we are getting dumped on if this comes to fruition in a bigly way!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Alex- do we benefit more than others on this storm in Suffolk?
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
dsix85 wrote:Alex- do we benefit more than others on this storm in Suffolk?
At the time being, yes. But still room to wiggle. Further east right now is in line for most QPF, but be weary of franks post. I think that warm air is really only an issue for SNJ, but not if the NW trend goes too far.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
GFS is definitely getting better. Getting a negative tilt to the 500mb trough as well as a stout SE ridge. My guess this gets even closer to the coast based on that.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
GEFS - Nice look here
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Just a quick drop in liking what I am seeing! Still tempering any expectations but I am glad to see things are trending back towards a de cent sized storm, nam was beautiful with 6-12 for most.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Wow thats awesome for a lot of the area, i love seeing that band hit me, looks like go be quick but heavy potential. Looks like LI stays under the band the longest and SE CT.amugs wrote:ICON not wavering once again - it will be a quickie but it will dump on us. The H% evolution is coming back to what we want.
This is incredible wow we are getting dumped on if this comes to fruition in a bigly way!!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
This supports more lift for snowfall in the Northeast on Sunday. https://t.co/vi07YKgKgA
— Miguel Pierre (@mpierre19) February 4, 2021
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Nam looks like its a little east from last run
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
TWC is now predicting 3-5 inches for my area on Sunday. That's an improvement from the mixed precip they had 2 days ago and 1-3 yesterday.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Nam looks to be a scraper for our area this run.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Join date : 2013-01-07
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
That'd be cool for SNJ to get a foot+.
Irish- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Solid NAM runs.
12K about 100 miles SE of where it was at 12&18z.
3K NAM in line with 12z and 18z 12K NAM.
Good to see overall.
2-4 NNJ
3-6 CNJ
4-8 SNJ/DE
Solid storm overall.
Look for jogs tomorrow in response to this coming ashore tomorrow by 12z maybe not fully sampled until 18/0z
12K about 100 miles SE of where it was at 12&18z.
3K NAM in line with 12z and 18z 12K NAM.
Good to see overall.
2-4 NNJ
3-6 CNJ
4-8 SNJ/DE
Solid storm overall.
Look for jogs tomorrow in response to this coming ashore tomorrow by 12z maybe not fully sampled until 18/0z
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
Nice NW trends on Ukie and Euro tonight. Both brush the area with anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow NW to SE.
First samples from land included in today’s runs probably for 12Z and forward. Let’s see if NW trends we’ve seen all winter so far continue.
First samples from land included in today’s runs probably for 12Z and forward. Let’s see if NW trends we’ve seen all winter so far continue.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
CP, up with the larks I see.
If the trend continues north-west, and possible heavy snow moves up the map, I will be delighted to get more snow. By tonight into Sat am, let's see.
If the trend continues north-west, and possible heavy snow moves up the map, I will be delighted to get more snow. By tonight into Sat am, let's see.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday
At 6z
Hits I95
3k
ICON
RGEM
SREFS
GFS
Hits I95
3k
ICON
RGEM
SREFS
GFS
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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