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Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:26 am

@amugs wrote:For you Alex and Scott

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-instant_ptype-2742400.png.5350718d0e425e595f4bc5caa8c93e34

Some pictures are just beautiful
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:29 am

I'm rooting for southern NJ and giant gor this afternoon getting skunked
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:30 am

12Z CMC wide right.
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Post by CNWestMilford Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:35 am

@aiannone wrote:12Z CMC wide right.
Continues to trend closer.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:00 pm

Checked in last night seemed like al lwas lost, now we see that typical NW trent, I expect this to continue the NW trend to some point then the SE then a tad NW again lol. These models IMo are useless, your guys analysis of such are much better.
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Post by le88kb Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:07 pm

Is it going to hit North jersey and shut us down is all i need LOL, I cant take the up and down i got 2 big truck loads coming in monday .
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:23 pm

So I am going to start with quoting myself from yesterday:


@sroc4 wrote:I know many will have looked at the surface maps overnight and said oh well models lost it.  Even the Euro went S&E and OTS.  Why?  The southern energy is strung out and doesnt interact much with the northern energy.  GFS actually had a bit more interaction but it was still too late. BUT keep this in mind between now and say 12z Friday to even 00z overnight Friday.  At this lead time models have been notoriously UNDER modeling the strength of the southern energy.  As we get into the 3days and under time frame and we start to get better sampling of this energy EVERY SINGLE system ends up stronger than what was prev modeled in the Md term.  Every single one all winter.  A stronger more consolidated southern wave would raise heights out front making room to come up AND allows for more interaction with the northern piece as well.  This is all in regards to the 500mb level

So keep these few thing in mind over the next few days.


So far today, euro wont start for another half hour or so, NAM, GFS, and CMC regardless of their final soln HAS a STRONGER southern system as it enters the WC and makes it way into the plains. That is all I wanted to see with today. Eevn the CMC which misses has a more amped system when compared to its prev run. Pay no attention to what the NAM actually put down on the ground.

The main diff between the NAM and the rest is that its got the S energy slightly out ahead of the N energy; whereas the GFS and the CMC do not. So while a more amped system is one aspect we need to cont to trend so is the timing and positioning of the S energy with respect to the N energy.

As good as it all looks now its far from great IMHO.



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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:07 pm

While I wait for the euro to complete here is the diff between the NAM and GFS from today.  The NAM had the energy out front so it was a good hit vs GFS slit behind so it only scraped.  Both show interactions between the two.   Look at the 12z from yesterdays GFS(last image) compared to todays.  Energy is much stronger and more interactions between the two.  Again not all the way there but trends are good though.

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 12z_na11
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 12z_fe10
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 Gfs-de24

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:12 pm

The 12Z Euro 500mb trough turns negative and the SE ridge is stout. The storm would come up the coast in that scenario and produce snowfall especially NW of 95.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:22 pm

Huge positive changes over the last 24hrs on the euro.  12z yest vs today.  Much stronger S energy that is almost out in front of the northern energy.  

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 12z_eu12
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 12z_eu13


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:23 pm


Overall today's 12z trends as a whole???...................

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 XLrs6g3


But how far can we go with it?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:26 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Huge positive changes over the last 24hrs on the euro.  12z yest vs today.  Much stronger S energy that is almost out in front of the northern energy.  

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 12z_eu12
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 12z_eu13


Absolutely it's getting there. Better phasing of the streams and it would have been much more significant storm.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:29 pm

Its getting there teh response if from what happening in Alaska - we wont know until 12Z tomorrow so sit tight. Scott great pictorial posts as usual.

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Post by mwilli Thu Feb 04, 2021 1:34 pm

gfs showing 2/12 showing snow just a heads up on this.

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:02 pm

What a trend like 1000 miles my god

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 Trend-ecmwf_full-2021020412-f078.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.fb13a44b6a908ab88b979f82380ec9c3

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:04 pm

@mwilli wrote:gfs showing 2/12 showing snow just a heads up on this.

Yes lets keep that in teh LR thread - the pattern at 12Z on teh EURO was WOWZA but we'll see of course.
Cold is here and it will get bitter peeps. Again for LR but just a heads up.
SSWE FTW on this one? Remains to be seen 28 days form now!

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:07 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 Image.png.c069c7fa5be0dcf60382f898e7b9ee5f
Jet Streak doing it dirty work here. Keep this as is and strengthen the jet streak to the NAM and many will be happy here. Too much phasing and it runs the risk of slop, just my .02 on that.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:08 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 601c4a10
Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 28366810

Another bump NW on srefs
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:14 pm

I have a busy couple of days ahead so can’t provide detailed analysis, but based off what I’m seeing and reading in Scotts posts we are definitely trending in the right direction if you’re a snow lover.

Another day of trends like today and we’re looking at another significant accumulation!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:16 pm

Also, worth mentioning that there is a pretty big risk of rain foe southern portions of this area. From what I’m seeing is this is a mostly southern stream driven event directed by the short wave itself and the SE ridge. A track too much to the N&W would flood southern areas with warmth. There’s no “phase” to drag the colder air from the polar jet into the coast. In order for the south to snow, the path has to be just right.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:21 pm

18Z NAM digging more, but southern energy us lagging a bit further behind than 12z
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:32 pm

18z NAM.... hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen!
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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:36 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 Ref1km10
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:37 pm

18Z NAM would be a significant to major event here.

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Post by aiannone Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:39 pm

Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday - Page 5 Sn10_a15
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