Possible Winter Storm - Super Bowl Sunday

amugs wrote:GEFS says HELOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

That's really nice. Much more clustered as I posted too. See where this goes.

Any updates from the Euro as that was really SE?

amugs wrote:For you Alex and Scott

Some pictures are just beautiful

I'm rooting for southern NJ and giant gor this afternoon getting skunked

12Z CMC wide right.

aiannone wrote:12Z CMC wide right.

Continues to trend closer.

Checked in last night seemed like al lwas lost, now we see that typical NW trent, I expect this to continue the NW trend to some point then the SE then a tad NW again lol. These models IMo are useless, your guys analysis of such are much better.

Is it going to hit North jersey and shut us down is all i need LOL, I cant take the up and down i got 2 big truck loads coming in monday .

So I am going to start with quoting myself from yesterday:

sroc4 wrote:I know many will have looked at the surface maps overnight and said oh well models lost it.  Even the Euro went S&E and OTS.  Why?  The southern energy is strung out and doesnt interact much with the northern energy.  GFS actually had a bit more interaction but it was still too late. BUT keep this in mind between now and say 12z Friday to even 00z overnight Friday.  At this lead time models have been notoriously UNDER modeling the strength of the southern energy.  As we get into the 3days and under time frame and we start to get better sampling of this energy EVERY SINGLE system ends up stronger than what was prev modeled in the Md term.  Every single one all winter.  A stronger more consolidated southern wave would raise heights out front making room to come up AND allows for more interaction with the northern piece as well.  This is all in regards to the 500mb level

So keep these few thing in mind over the next few days.

So far today, euro wont start for another half hour or so, NAM, GFS, and CMC regardless of their final soln HAS a STRONGER southern system as it enters the WC and makes it way into the plains. That is all I wanted to see with today. Eevn the CMC which misses has a more amped system when compared to its prev run. Pay no attention to what the NAM actually put down on the ground.

The main diff between the NAM and the rest is that its got the S energy slightly out ahead of the N energy; whereas the GFS and the CMC do not. So while a more amped system is one aspect we need to cont to trend so is the timing and positioning of the S energy with respect to the N energy.

As good as it all looks now its far from great IMHO.

While I wait for the euro to complete here is the diff between the NAM and GFS from today.  The NAM had the energy out front so it was a good hit vs GFS slit behind so it only scraped.  Both show interactions between the two.   Look at the 12z from yesterdays GFS(last image) compared to todays.  Energy is much stronger and more interactions between the two.  Again not all the way there but trends are good though.

The 12Z Euro 500mb trough turns negative and the SE ridge is stout. The storm would come up the coast in that scenario and produce snowfall especially NW of 95.

Huge positive changes over the last 24hrs on the euro.  12z yest vs today.  Much stronger S energy that is almost out in front of the northern energy.  

Overall today's 12z trends as a whole???...................




But how far can we go with it?

sroc4 wrote:Huge positive changes over the last 24hrs on the euro.  12z yest vs today.  Much stronger S energy that is almost out in front of the northern energy.  

Absolutely it's getting there. Better phasing of the streams and it would have been much more significant storm.

Its getting there teh response if from what happening in Alaska - we wont know until 12Z tomorrow so sit tight. Scott great pictorial posts as usual.

gfs showing 2/12 showing snow just a heads up on this.

What a trend like 1000 miles my god

mwilli wrote:gfs showing 2/12 showing snow just a heads up on this.

Yes lets keep that in teh LR thread - the pattern at 12Z on teh EURO was WOWZA but we'll see of course.
Cold is here and it will get bitter peeps. Again for LR but just a heads up.
SSWE FTW on this one? Remains to be seen 28 days form now!

Jet Streak doing it dirty work here. Keep this as is and strengthen the jet streak to the NAM and many will be happy here. Too much phasing and it runs the risk of slop, just my .02 on that.

Another bump NW on srefs

I have a busy couple of days ahead so can’t provide detailed analysis, but based off what I’m seeing and reading in Scotts posts we are definitely trending in the right direction if you’re a snow lover.

Another day of trends like today and we’re looking at another significant accumulation!

Also, worth mentioning that there is a pretty big risk of rain foe southern portions of this area. From what I’m seeing is this is a mostly southern stream driven event directed by the short wave itself and the SE ridge. A track too much to the N&W would flood southern areas with warmth. There’s no “phase” to drag the colder air from the polar jet into the coast. In order for the south to snow, the path has to be just right.

18Z NAM digging more, but southern energy us lagging a bit further behind than 12z

18z NAM.... hold onto your bootstraps ladies and gentlemen!

18Z NAM would be a significant to major event here.