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Roctober or Ghostober 2021

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sroc4
jmanley32
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frank 638
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Post by amugs Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:42 am

44* last night - heat was actually turned on in our school this morning - chilly.

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Post by SENJsnowman Sat Oct 02, 2021 9:44 am

More rambling thoughts on the annual Summer-Fall battleground that seems to drag out every year from Sep 1- Oct 15. October doesn't look to get off to a great start as far as 'seasonal' temps go, especially nighttime temps. Lows in the mid-60's by the Shore. YUUUUCK. But after this weekend, the highs stay in the low '70s, with low humidity and a steady autumn breeze. Overall, that's a typical weather day in San Diego...aka perfect. So, that's overall very hard to complain about. lol

But very exciting that everyone who is weighing in seems to be liking the long term, big picture pieces they are seeing evolve heading into winter. Of course, no guarantee of any kind for favorable snowy conditions. That reminds me- GREAT summary the other day Mr. Frank on how the same favorable Oct-Nov big picture data did not pan out come Dec-Feb.

Still, I'd always rather come into the big game with a team that looks great on paper than not I guess...Have a great weekend all. Mugs, Jman, Sroc, Mom, etc thanks for all the regular updates!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:07 am

URGHHH horrible 67* and so humid..where is the sweater weather.. and we need ragweed to die..sorry not cheery this morning. But I do hope the rest of you have a wonderful day!!
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:50 am

Disgusting for October out humid and sticky and wet!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:25 pm

We're actually experiencing a sharp decline with the NAO. It went negative around the first of the month, and will look to stay there until the 12th or so.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Naoindex

What's happening now is extreme troughiness in the western U.S. (-PNA), coupled with a cut-off low in the SEUS as a result of the -NAO, is causing higher than normal temps along the EC. The -PNA and +EPO pattern does not seem to break down anytime soon. October looks extremely warm overall...

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_12

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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:17 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:We're actually experiencing a sharp decline with the NAO. It went negative around the first of the month, and will look to stay there until the 12th or so.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Naoindex

What's happening now is extreme troughiness in the western U.S. (-PNA), coupled with a cut-off low in the SEUS as a result of the -NAO, is causing higher than normal temps along the EC. The -PNA and +EPO pattern does not seem to break down anytime soon. October looks extremely warm overall...

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_12
Drats Frank...I need sweater weather....come on fall!! Cool days cooler nights we need you!! Thank you for the explanation of what is happening
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:09 am

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 FBC38wVVkAEyvQd?format=png&name=small

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Post by frank 638 Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:18 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Roctober or Ghostober 2021 FBC38wVVkAEyvQd?format=png&name=small
yuck We need our fall weather back I wanted to be cool and crisp during the days and nights

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:03 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Roctober or Ghostober 2021 FBC38wVVkAEyvQd?format=png&name=small

Sad Sad Sad Sad Sad
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Post by Dunnzoo Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:24 pm

With the way heating prices are going, if I can keep my heat off til November, I'll take it! Heading to Warwick Winery tomorrow for a nice kickoff to the weekend and love that it's going to be warm!

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:42 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote: With the way heating prices are going, if I can keep my heat off til November, I'll take it! Heading to Warwick Winery tomorrow for a nice kickoff to the weekend and love that it's going to be warm!

Sounds like fun.

I’ll be enjoying a night out in downtown JC. I need the night to raise my happiness levels after that brutal Yankees loss. The team is done forever if they don’t find a competent GM!!

I agree having some mild weather hang around helps make outdoor activities a lot easier to plan. By the time Halloween gets here though I’m ready for the colder temps. Nothing better than that for the holiday season.

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:04 pm

Could be worse peeps, Europe doesn't have enough Natural Gas to power/ heat homes this coming winter at this time.
England having fuel shortages.
China having massive "controlled" blackouts.
Greenland accumulated its 3rd highest snow gain and South Pole recorded its coldest winter ever in recording era at the station.

We have 7.0 ~every 25 days and more Volcanoes going off since the latter part of 1800's.

Western USA gonna get a snowstorm and a near record cold snap.

So....let's enjoy the beautiful fall weather. Cool night in mid to upper 50's and daytime highs around 70- low 70's. Maybe rainy Sunday into Monday

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:53 am

Overcast conditions and intermittent showers expected Saturday and Sunday, especially along the coast. There is a coastal storm that will stay offshore but some rain will push its way into the coast unfortunately.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Overcast conditions and intermittent showers expected Saturday and Sunday, especially along the coast. There is a coastal storm that will stay offshore but some rain will push its way into the coast unfortunately.
Thanks Frank ...heading to cape may with the camper. Hoping for tom to at least be rain free. From what I see Sunday is going to be a wash out. Good day for a curl up with a book.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:54 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Overcast conditions and intermittent showers expected Saturday and Sunday, especially along the coast. There is a coastal storm that will stay offshore but some rain will push its way into the coast unfortunately.
How bad will it be down by brick nj? I'm supposed to be going there for their 1st townwide garage sale over 500 homes participating but if it's going to rain out then I'm not making the trip.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:56 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Overcast conditions and intermittent showers expected Saturday and Sunday, especially along the coast. There is a coastal storm that will stay offshore but some rain will push its way into the coast unfortunately.
Thanks Frank ...heading to cape may with the camper.  Hoping for tom to at least be rain free. From what I see Sunday is going to be a wash out.  Good day for a curl up with a book.  
I saw models tgey not showing rain for this weekend guess they are way off. Need tomorrow rain free plzzz. Tgat would suck for me and 500 homes who have gotten ready for their sale in brick tomorrow. Was go also see the shore while there believe it or not never been!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 09, 2021 12:34 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Overcast conditions and intermittent showers expected Saturday and Sunday, especially along the coast. There is a coastal storm that will stay offshore but some rain will push its way into the coast unfortunately.
Thanks Frank ...heading to cape may with the camper.  Hoping for tom to at least be rain free. From what I see Sunday is going to be a wash out.  Good day for a curl up with a book.  
I saw models tgey not showing rain for this weekend guess they are way off. Need tomorrow rain free plzzz. Tgat would suck for me and 500 homes who have gotten ready for their sale in brick tomorrow. Was go also see the shore while there believe it or not never been!

Rain threat is more tonight into Sunday Smile

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Post by amugs Sat Oct 09, 2021 5:26 pm


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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:30 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Overcast conditions and intermittent showers expected Saturday and Sunday, especially along the coast. There is a coastal storm that will stay offshore but some rain will push its way into the coast unfortunately.
Thanks Frank ...heading to cape may with the camper.  Hoping for tom to at least be rain free. From what I see Sunday is going to be a wash out.  Good day for a curl up with a book.  
I saw models tgey not showing rain for this weekend guess they are way off. Need tomorrow rain free plzzz. Tgat would suck for me and 500 homes who have gotten ready for their sale in brick tomorrow. Was go also see the shore while there believe it or not never been!

Rain threat is more tonight into Sunday Smile
Pouring rain right now ..looks like Tom will be rainy down here ..was a nice breezy day for walking around the shops.
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Post by amugs Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:20 am

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Fbv5fi10
Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Fbv5ho10

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:53 am

We'll be brushed by another coastal low on Wednesday, but it's going to be pretty minimal rain. Not a whole lot happening weather-wise. Looking forward to full sun returning on Thursday this week Smile it will continue staying mild with temps in the 70s

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Oct 11, 2021 9:00 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Overcast conditions and intermittent showers expected Saturday and Sunday, especially along the coast. There is a coastal storm that will stay offshore but some rain will push its way into the coast unfortunately.
Thanks Frank ...heading to cape may with the camper.  Hoping for tom to at least be rain free. From what I see Sunday is going to be a wash out.  Good day for a curl up with a book.  
I saw models tgey not showing rain for this weekend guess they are way off. Need tomorrow rain free plzzz. Tgat would suck for me and 500 homes who have gotten ready for their sale in brick tomorrow. Was go also see the shore while there believe it or not never been!

Rain threat is more tonight into Sunday Smile
Pouring rain right now ..looks like Tom will be rainy down here ..was a nice breezy day for walking around the shops.
Actually Sunday turned out to be a pretty nice day hit 70 a bit breezy..sunny at times cloudy and a brief shower

This morning cloudy 66*windy 18-20 nne( had to look it up..don't have my weather station on the camper)
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Post by amugs Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:45 am

Meridional Fall jet stream that we will see this winter as the wavelengths lengthen as per Ventrice of Twitter.
20-20* below normal in the west and NE is 10-15 above normal

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 FBf74ACXIAIb8Xw?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:18 am

@amugs wrote:Meridional Fall jet stream that we will see this winter as the wavelengths lengthen as per Ventrice of Twitter.
20-20* below normal in the west and NE is 10-15 above normal

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 FBf74ACXIAIb8Xw?format=jpg&name=medium

I think you mean as wavelengths shorten.  Quick update on the Siberian snow growth.  First image is the one I posted back on Sept 20th followed by current.  As you can see below normal to normal snow growth overall.  Nothing incredibly exciting thus far on this front.  Still more than half of October to go, but current forecasts do show an over abundance of snowfall in this region, esp the regions with red on it as of the current map below.  We'll see  

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Siberi13
Roctober or Ghostober 2021 Siberi14

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:31 pm

SROC yes my mistake  I meant this but wrote that!!!
Saturday/Sunday cold front come though and more fall like temps

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 FBgs6aBXEAkL0VK?format=jpg&name=medium
From perspective weather on tweeter image

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