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Roctober or Ghostober 2021

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nutleyblizzard
aiannone
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frank 638
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:04 pm

YOWZA!!

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjEtTTX0AUpo_b?format=png&name=medium

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:19 pm

@amugs wrote:YOWZA!!

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjEtTTX0AUpo_b?format=png&name=medium

Brick Tired Mad

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:41 pm

NAM!!

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjbJ3rWYAMF82b?format=jpg&name=medium

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:41 pm

ENSEMBLE of SR models

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Qpf_024h_pmm_ne.f03600(4).png.738d8bf4ace863711c0d4090da7c56c3

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Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:48 pm

From Logan Miles - excellent work on this storm

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjqHkSXsAgPCOl?format=jpg&name=medium

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjqa0PXoAYVuuu?format=jpg&name=medium

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjqbkNXEAQNsXE?format=jpg&name=medium

Backside Winds in Apps
Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCi4zHSWQAUyiMs?format=png&name=small

I VEHEMENTLY AGREE!!!

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjrCitXsAgXS3p?format=jpg&name=medium

RAIN
Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjr9TWWYAQQOXK?format=jpg&name=medium

Maybe under done like winds
Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjr99qXEAQosqi?format=jpg&name=medium



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:07 pm

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCj-p-QXMAEBaw0?format=jpg&name=large

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:08 pm

EURO 12Z 33nRain WxBoard compliments

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 49429102_qpf_acc.us_ne(1).png.d97e4740604fa5912fcc059606448c98

A bit further East
Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 2066852348_prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne(2).png.32f6e6f1aaade934a96c274760cfe1c8

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:09 pm

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCiVFPLXIAIWpo-?format=jpg&name=medium

Pink where gusts can reach hurricane force. Pumpkin colored 60 MPH

From JB

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:16 pm

12Z HRRR YIKES - Power outages abundant if it verifies or comes even 10-20% less for the duration it will be bad.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCjUHqtWYAwydiZ?format=jpg&name=large

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:43 pm


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by lglickman1 Mon Oct 25, 2021 2:53 pm

why is the storm track looping around like that?

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Post by aiannone Mon Oct 25, 2021 3:05 pm

Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:18 pm

@aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets
Do you think nhc area and southern Westchester will see hww criteria? Looks like LI would be worst but still shows like 60moh gusts at least along Jersey Shore across NYC area through CT. Why are they not putting any advisories or warnings out? Even these areas could see hurricane gusts per jb
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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:38 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:why is the storm track looping around like that?

There is a strong block (red in Eastern Canada), that is preventing it from escaping quickly. The surface low meanders until the next upper level system, blue to the west over Texas, kicks everything out.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_z500a_namer_9

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:27 pm

This storm doesn't warrant storm mode? I know it isn't a snowstorm but it still looks to be impactful.
The fact that all The SR models are showing similar winds and rain with slight differences in placement tells me imo that the gfs was way off yesterday. frank. I may be wrong but all signals pointing to a lot worse than 2 inches rain. And I dunno whatsgoing on with the forecasters and the wind threat . only pulled trigger on cape. I guess there is a given and imo 60 mph there is low.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:12 pm

@aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets

Problem is, how often do we see models spitting out crazy wind numbers, only to have them not verify? It seems like every time we see models showing us 60, 70, 80 kt winds, our max gusts hit the mid 50s.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:18 pm

@essexcountypete wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets

Problem is, how often do we see models spitting out crazy wind numbers, only to have them not verify? It seems like every time we see models showing us 60, 70, 80 kt winds, our max gusts hit the mid 50s.
This is valid. They may also be waiting on seeing exact placement. I think 00z tonight or 06z Upton will put something up. Or maybe not.
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Post by dkodgis Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:57 pm

I feel flatfooted here. Yesterday, I thought last night's rain was it. I had no idea some such poopy was going to hit the fan. I need to pay attention (more).
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:01 pm

@dkodgis wrote:I feel flatfooted here. Yesterday, I thought last night's rain was it. I had no idea some such poopy was going to hit the fan. I need to pay attention (more).
Lol some such poopy...we are such grown ups here aren't we lmao.
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Post by brownie Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:16 pm

The media are focusing on “a month’s worth of rain in a day” - 4-5” for me.

I used to look forward to a good nor’easter, but after Ida, I am mostly terrified now, and hope my property survives intact.

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:17 pm

HH GFS
Get out the ARK!!

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn_neus_8


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:23 pm

Why do I have a feeling this is go end up like ida. Except maybe not as severe flash floods cuz it's longer duration but this time we add in potentially very high winds . after assisting my clients and my supervisor who lost everything I don't wish that flooding on snyone.
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Post by essexcountypete Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:51 pm

@brownie wrote:The media are focusing on “a month’s worth of rain in a day” - 4-5” for me.

I used to look forward to a good nor’easter, but after Ida, I am mostly terrified now, and hope my property survives intact.

Right there with you. Storms are a lot less fun when you're worrying about your safety.
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Post by amugs Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:51 pm

Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCk-bBJXIAACcqR?format=jpg&name=medium

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:57 pm

@amugs wrote:Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 4 FCk-bBJXIAACcqR?format=jpg&name=medium
I read somewhere we are waiting for the low to pop off the coast of carolinas then we will have a good idea of how far west this storm will get.
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