Roctober or Ghostober 2021

amugs wrote:

As we approach the 10th anniversary of the infamous October 2011 nor'easter , we've got our first nor'easter of fall/winter 2021/22 to track!

There's a shortage of cold air this time, but no shortage of tropical moisture (🟠) — this one will be about soaking rain, not snow... pic.twitter.com/MBsoYqIYuD

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 25, 2021

What model is that? That would crush the area being that close in. And the loop on prolongs it.

This is a sick loop!!!
Mike Mosstwill on Twitter n 33nRain Wx Board

YOWZA!!

amugs wrote:YOWZA!!

NAM!!

ENSEMBLE of SR models

From Logan Miles - excellent work on this storm







Backside Winds in Apps


I VEHEMENTLY AGREE!!!



RAIN


Maybe under done like winds

EURO 12Z 33nRain WxBoard compliments



A bit further East

Pink where gusts can reach hurricane force. Pumpkin colored 60 MPH

From JB

12Z HRRR YIKES - Power outages abundant if it verifies or comes even 10-20% less for the duration it will be bad.

12z Euro is ugly. A damaging nor’easter looking likely. pic.twitter.com/wRBVNUrZuw

— eweather (@Eweather13) October 25, 2021

why is the storm track looping around like that?

Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets

aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets

Do you think nhc area and southern Westchester will see hww criteria? Looks like LI would be worst but still shows like 60moh gusts at least along Jersey Shore across NYC area through CT. Why are they not putting any advisories or warnings out? Even these areas could see hurricane gusts per jb

lglickman1 wrote:why is the storm track looping around like that?

There is a strong block (red in Eastern Canada), that is preventing it from escaping quickly. The surface low meanders until the next upper level system, blue to the west over Texas, kicks everything out.

This storm doesn't warrant storm mode? I know it isn't a snowstorm but it still looks to be impactful.
The fact that all The SR models are showing similar winds and rain with slight differences in placement tells me imo that the gfs was way off yesterday. frank. I may be wrong but all signals pointing to a lot worse than 2 inches rain. And I dunno whatsgoing on with the forecasters and the wind threat . only pulled trigger on cape. I guess there is a given and imo 60 mph there is low.

aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets

Problem is, how often do we see models spitting out crazy wind numbers, only to have them not verify? It seems like every time we see models showing us 60, 70, 80 kt winds, our max gusts hit the mid 50s.

essexcountypete wrote:

aiannone wrote:Yikes. I feel like the wind threat/impacts from this are being underplayed by local mets

Problem is, how often do we see models spitting out crazy wind numbers, only to have them not verify? It seems like every time we see models showing us 60, 70, 80 kt winds, our max gusts hit the mid 50s.

This is valid. They may also be waiting on seeing exact placement. I think 00z tonight or 06z Upton will put something up. Or maybe not.

I feel flatfooted here. Yesterday, I thought last night's rain was it. I had no idea some such poopy was going to hit the fan. I need to pay attention (more).

dkodgis wrote:I feel flatfooted here. Yesterday, I thought last night's rain was it. I had no idea some such poopy was going to hit the fan. I need to pay attention (more).

Lol some such poopy...we are such grown ups here aren't we lmao.

The media are focusing on “a month’s worth of rain in a day” - 4-5” for me.

I used to look forward to a good nor’easter, but after Ida, I am mostly terrified now, and hope my property survives intact.

HH GFS
Get out the ARK!!

Why do I have a feeling this is go end up like ida. Except maybe not as severe flash floods cuz it's longer duration but this time we add in potentially very high winds . after assisting my clients and my supervisor who lost everything I don't wish that flooding on snyone.

brownie wrote:The media are focusing on “a month’s worth of rain in a day” - 4-5” for me.

I used to look forward to a good nor’easter, but after Ida, I am mostly terrified now, and hope my property survives intact.

Right there with you. Storms are a lot less fun when you're worrying about your safety.

Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE

amugs wrote:Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE

I read somewhere we are waiting for the low to pop off the coast of carolinas then we will have a good idea of how far west this storm will get.