Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:44 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
So can you explain a little? That LP over land I'm assuming is one tgat will phase with the main LP and form the storm? Do we have an idea of where the loop will happen? Seems models this morning have further west getting close to tip of LI. Curious if wind headlines may go up further west when we see where the loop is. Regardless rain sounds bad in NJ.

Yes...the highest winds will be post-phase that is expected to happen overnight into early morning. A sub 980mb low retrogrades back to the BM then drifts off S-SE. These are 850mb winds that obviously won't reach the surface, but a period of 20-30mph sustained winds is possible.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_5

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_5

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 Gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_6

by **amugs** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am

NWS mesoscale discussion: "Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible with
rainfall rates reaching (and perhaps exceeding) 1-2"/hr through
morning Localized accumulations of 3-4+ inches are expected" Flood risk amplifying next few hours, esp. for N. NJ, SE NY, NYC, W. LI https://t.co/vMsB9jB7fr
— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) October 26, 2021

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Just made sure son was up for a second time and rushing to get him out the door and school was called...roads flooded..what chaos...sent him back to bed a second time..I think I might go back myself..on postitive side quiet rain right now.

Man I wish they called school when I was that age for flooding! They probably could have gotten away with a delayed opening, but glad I'm not the superintendent these days...

by **amugs** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:47 am

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Just made sure son was up for a second time and rushing to get him out the door and school was called...roads flooded..what chaos...sent him back to bed a second time..I think I might go back myself..on postitive side quiet rain right now.

Man I wish they called school when I was that age for flooding! They probably could have gotten away with a delayed opening, but glad I'm not the superintendent these days...

HA Ha..that is what my husband said when he came out of his meeting..he was like what???? but in all honesty..4 of our 8 schools have roads that are closed to to flooding..you can't get thru....Hope you have a great day..stay safe.

by **brownie** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:53 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:Just made sure son was up for a second time and rushing to get him out the door and school was called...roads flooded..what chaos...sent him back to bed a second time..I think I might go back myself..on postitive side quiet rain right now.

Schools are closed here too. I’m surprised.

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:54 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
So can you explain a little? That LP over land I'm assuming is one tgat will phase with the main LP and form the storm? Do we have an idea of where the loop will happen? Seems models this morning have further west getting close to tip of LI. Curious if wind headlines may go up further west when we see where the loop is. Regardless rain sounds bad in NJ.

Yes...the highest winds will be post-phase that is expected to happen overnight into early morning. A sub 980mb low retrogrades back to the BM then drifts off S-SE. These are 850mb winds that obviously won't reach the surface, but a period of 20-30mph sustained winds is possible.

What will max gusts be in and around tristate? Anything 40 and above starts to cause issues. If sustained 20 to 30 I presume add like 15 or so for gusts locally higher? I think you have said in past add about 15 to 20 mph. Nws talks about a line of storms that could worsen rain when can we expect this?

by **essexcountypete** Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:57 am

That firehose coming off the Atlantic right now has me in the bullseye. It hasn't moved much

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:16 am

It is a absolute deluge here. Gusty winds too but nothing serious. No school closures in NY that I know of. Can you imagine if this was a snow storm!!

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:29 am

Looks like rain may come to an end soon in NJ and NYC are we expecting anymore Sig rain after that?

by missmorris Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 am

frank 638 wrote:Good morning jman I am a steamfitter for local 638 . I start work at six I’ll leave my house at 4:30 and I am working at Monahan station .Hopefully today it won’t be as bad as they were saying stay safe bud

Whoa, what a blast from the past! My husband was a fitter for 638 in the late 80s or early 90s! I remember him working out at Roosevelt Field Mall.

by **dkodgis** Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 am

Hell to pay on Route 17, and the thruway spur going down to NJ. I counted three cars smashed into guard rails, and an overturned truck a few miles from the Tap. Heavy fog, driving rain. Not good at all.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:23 pm

Rain shut off for the most part but there will be wrap around rain this evening into overnight hours. However, the heaviest rain is out of the way. The story - maybe - will be the winds later tonight but I have a feeling they will be ok. Look out on Long Island though

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:52 pm

Holy rain Batman! 5" of rain so far.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:58 pm

From Pro Met Siciliano
These are low level gusts hard to make out but NYC may see 40/45 mph gusts LI 55-60MPH

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 FCo17dtX0AoSVKr?format=png&name=medium

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 FCo17dtX0AoSVKr?format=png&name=medium

by **amugs** Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:34 pm

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 FCpEWbQWEAIPON_?format=jpg&name=small

For those in this area

by **aiannone** Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:35 pm

Gusting 10-15mph here so far. Let's see what this evening brings.

by **dkodgis** Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:15 pm

Heavy rain up here in northern Orange.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:20 pm

Active period for sure peeps, White gold quite possible for the Ski Mountains in NE and NY possibly. Wish it were December with this!!

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 1543806289_GEFSgif.gif.cbbec42c18dd584f993049532a19046c

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 1543806289_GEFSgif.gif.cbbec42c18dd584f993049532a19046c

by **brownie** Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:54 pm

Nothing is happening here right now. It stopped raining about an hour ago and there is no wind at all.

by **dkodgis** Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:07 pm

Still raining here but lighter

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:24 pm

NAM still shows moderate rain falling overnight. Looks like another 0.5"-1" of rain is possible, especially NYC on east.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_16

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_16

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 Namconus_mslp_wind_neus_24

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:25 pm

aiannone wrote:Gusting 10-15mph here so far. Let's see what this evening brings.

Wow, stay safe

by **dkodgis** Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:35 pm

Rain turned off

by **amugs** Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:05 pm

We've got some modest backfill of rain and 5he LP bombs and pivots.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 6 Inxr1k12

Moderate to maybe a few heavier bands this evening/tonight but nothing like last night or this morning

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:37 pm

amugs wrote:We've got some modest backfill of rain and 5he LP bombs and pivots.

Moderate to maybe a few heavier bands this evening/tonight but nothing like last night or this morning

I hope not and that was crazy..and my husband has still not climbed up and put new batteries in my weather station.. I am so mad I have no idea how much rain we got this morning. arrrghhh

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:42 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
amugs wrote:We've got some modest backfill of rain and 5he LP bombs and pivots.

Moderate to maybe a few heavier bands this evening/tonight but nothing like last night or this morning

I hope not and that was crazy..and my husband has still not climbed up and put new batteries in my weather station.. I am so mad I have no idea how much rain we got this morning. arrrghhh

I was going crazy when my station wasn't recording right. I ended up putting a Rubbermaid tub outside! geek

Now I have an old-fashioned glass gauge as a backup.

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