Roctober or Ghostober 2021

Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE

amugs wrote:Ticked East on 18Z GFS - Good for us bad for NE

I read somewhere we are waiting for the low to pop off the coast of carolinas then we will have a good idea of how far west this storm will get.

Just got a clap of thunder here.

Raining here

We had some real booming thunder for a few minutes. the radar is filling in to the west and as the low pops to the south we will see the area fill in over night. morning commute is not go be fun, nor evening. Evening may be worse as this will be when winds really start to crank if they do. Bastardi just called it a devastating storm for the eastern NE, cape could see 80+ mph gusts, yikes.

And thunder, lightning. Some heavy rain just started

dkodgis wrote:And thunder, lightning. Some heavy rain just started

One area of NJ near clifton already having flash flooding oy.

Whoever is under that band training S to N is getting slammed, its not moving east at all. Flash flood warnings there.

Here is our storm starting to develop.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

1.15" so far 10:45 Hillsdale

amugs wrote:1.15" so far 10:45 Hillsdale

Yeah this is not gonna be good mugs. I thought it was wind no it was obscenely heavy rains on and off past hour or so. Add the winds later tomorrow...though I guess MT. Holly and Upton feel they stay below advisory criteria? That seems unlikely but we see. Holy jeeze huge crack thunder made me jump in bed lol

00z 3KM nam has the loop further west bringing stronger winds into the area and majority of NE, wozers, I understand these are 850mb winds (kts) but still. would like to see a mph map from wxbell if someone has one. Thje most concerning part is whewreever the winds are its going to be like training rain its going to stick around 12 plus hours! HRRR is also further west through hour 18.

2.26" as of 0400. Had pea size hail in a tstorm at 9:30 last night.

Driving to work was slow Lots of ponding on the highway especially on the W. Side Highway take it slow and be careful everyone

frank 638 wrote:Driving to work was slow Lots of ponding on the highway especially  on the W. Side Highway take it slow and be careful everyone

Thanks wow you work early!! What do you do to have to be at work at 6am? So I guess the winds despite the models still showing a bit of a trend west with nam hrrr etc are go be a non issue except for LI?

Good morning jman I am a steamfitter for local 638 . I start work at six I’ll leave my house at 4:30 and I am working at Monahan station .Hopefully today it won’t be as bad as they were saying stay safe bud

Very heavy rainfall across the city and NNJ. Stay home if you can…it’s not worth dealing with flash flooding and dangerous driving conditions.

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:Driving to work was slow Lots of ponding on the highway especially  on the W. Side Highway take it slow and be careful everyone

Thanks wow you work early!! What do you do to have to be at work at 6am? So I guess the winds despite the models still showing a bit of a trend west with nam hrrr etc are go be a non issue except for LI?

"A non issue"?? Jon Im not exactly sure what your expectations are here but the forecasts have been pretty good for the winds. The most significant winds don't occur until the system phases. This was always going to happen off the coast. Yes there is a little retrogression from the blocking but the new low maybe gets to just inside the BM. Plus we all know models over do the winds 98% of the time. Latest from Upton seems pretty spot on to me.


Double barrel low pressure
will eventually give way to a stronger offshore low near the
benchmark later in the day. This will should allow the winds to
start to become more northeasterly in the the evening.

Into this evening low pressure just to the east intensifies as
the storm system begins to become vertically stacked. Surface
pressure fall with the strongest pressure gradient become
realized across far eastern locations. Wind gusts of over 40
mph, with some gusts approaching 55 to 60 mph can be expected
across far Eastern LI and far Eastern CT. Have expanded the Wind
Advisories slightly further west and have issued a High Wind
Warning for SE Suffolk. The timing of strongest winds have been
shifted later by about 2-3 hours. Another batch of moderate to
heavy rain is progged to rotate through from the main low with
radar return likely moving from NE to SW during the evening
hours. By the early evening the thinking is that the western
areas and the city should be primarily done with the significant
rainfall, and perhaps just a couple of hours later for eastern
areas. There after the rain should not be as heavy with a more
stable environment in place, although there will be some
embedded moderate showers in any wrap around bands. Rainfall
totals look to range from 2 to 5 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible. Strong winds should
take place across far eastern sections, with gusty winds along
the coast throughout much of the night corresponding with the
period of strongest pressure gradient along the western side of
the low.

What a nasty drive to work. Lots of ponding on roads. Sliding all over the place. Felt like driving in the snow.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:Driving to work was slow Lots of ponding on the highway especially  on the W. Side Highway take it slow and be careful everyone

Thanks wow you work early!! What do you do to have to be at work at 6am? So I guess the winds despite the models still showing a bit of a trend west with nam hrrr etc are go be a non issue except for LI?

"A non issue"??  Jon Im not exactly sure what your expectations are here but the forecasts have been pretty good for the winds.  The most significant winds don't occur until the system phases.  This was always going to happen off the coast. Yes there is a little retrogression from the blocking but the new low maybe gets to just inside the BM.  Plus we all know models over do the winds 98% of the time.  Latest from Upton seems pretty spot on to me.  


Double barrel low pressure
will eventually give way to a stronger offshore low near the
benchmark later in the day. This will should allow the winds to
start to become more northeasterly in the the evening.

Into this evening low pressure just to the east intensifies as
the storm system begins to become vertically stacked. Surface
pressure fall with the strongest pressure gradient become
realized across far eastern locations. Wind gusts of over 40
mph, with some gusts approaching 55 to 60 mph can be expected
across far Eastern LI and far Eastern CT. Have expanded the Wind
Advisories slightly further west and have issued a High Wind
Warning for SE Suffolk. The timing of strongest winds have been
shifted later by about 2-3 hours. Another batch of moderate to
heavy rain is progged to rotate through from the main low with
radar return likely moving from NE to SW during the evening
hours. By the early evening the thinking is that the western
areas and the city should be primarily done with the significant
rainfall, and perhaps just a couple of hours later for eastern
areas. There after the rain should not be as heavy with a more
stable environment in place, although there will be some
embedded moderate showers in any wrap around bands. Rainfall
totals look to range from 2 to 5 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible. Strong winds should
take place across far eastern sections, with gusty winds along
the coast throughout much of the night corresponding with the
period of strongest pressure gradient along the western side of
the low.

I meant over in NYC area. Def go be a issue appears for LI and cape cod. Stay safe.

Not bad at all here no flooding and best ride into work in a long time. Sounds like nj far worse. Calling school for rain that's a first. After Ida I guess not taking any chances. Stay safe. We will see what tonight brings. Here in New rochelle it is already quite breezy.

sroc4 wrote:

So can you explain a little? That LP over land I'm assuming is one tgat will phase with the main LP and form the storm? Do we have an idea of where the loop will happen? Seems models this morning have further west getting close to tip of LI. Curious if wind headlines may go up further west when we see where the loop is. Regardless rain sounds bad in NJ.

3.3" of rain as of 9:30 am here, thankfully over 12 hours so the streams and brooks are barely holding on.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

So can you explain a little? That LP over land I'm assuming is one tgat will phase with the main LP and form the storm? Do we have an idea of where the loop will happen? Seems models this morning have further west getting close to tip of LI. Curious if wind headlines may go up further west when we see where the loop is. Regardless rain sounds bad in NJ.

Yes...the highest winds will be post-phase that is expected to happen overnight into early morning. A sub 980mb low retrogrades back to the BM then drifts off S-SE. These are 850mb winds that obviously won't reach the surface, but a period of 20-30mph sustained winds is possible.

NWS mesoscale discussion: "Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible with
rainfall rates reaching (and perhaps exceeding) 1-2"/hr through
morning Localized accumulations of 3-4+ inches are expected" Flood risk amplifying next few hours, esp. for N. NJ, SE NY, NYC, W. LI https://t.co/vMsB9jB7fr

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) October 26, 2021