Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Hopefully some frost and maybe freeze this upcoming weekend but definitely for the Ruburbs of NJ and Cp and dem hills of CP, DOC and SNOWY!
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
The reason for the lack of posts Mugs is that everyone has been through enough of these rainstorms and tornadoes during the summer months. It’s inflicted a lot of pain and suffering both mentally and financially not to mention the loss of life. This so called climate change has been a humbling experience to say the least. I can only imagine what the winter might have in store for us.
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Wow, I knew it was go rain but didn't know there was also potential for HWW criteria winds. And the system looks to just rotate just inside the BM for quite some time. Could be a bad scene, flash flood watches up, thats last thing we need. At least rivers have receeded from the last storms.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Yeah probably and I agree but this is not uncomming halloween week etc, Thats around when Sandy happened, and many other storms not on the level of Sandy but this time of year it is common. I can only hope we see a swatch of 3-5 qpf over nyc area in winter lolnutleyblizzard wrote:The reason for the lack of posts Mugs is that everyone has been through enough of these rainstorms and tornadoes during the summer months. It’s inflicted a lot of pain and suffering both mentally and financially not to mention the loss of life. This so called climate change has been a humbling experience to say the least. I can only imagine what the winter might have in store for us.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
I saw a sattelite view and this noreaster looks to develop a a eye as it does a loop just off shore, what is keeping it from going inland? Bastardi is comparing it to analogs of Sandy, Perfect storm and another in 1994 I think i actually remember.amugs wrote:NWS heard me about this - get ready folks could be an impactful storm
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
GFS:

NAM:

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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
The kind of trends I like to see pic.twitter.com/xMtDjCMez8
— Will C (@weatherwilly) October 24, 2021
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Wind gusts knock of 20% but still - power outages possible to likely at this point
JB comparison is 1994 Del Marva Nor, Perfect Storm and.....SANDY!!! BUT not as bad
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
hislatest post he made a makeshift track and is calling it "hurricane-like" and has it as a 85mph storm just off LI then 80mph storm just east of NJ as it does a loop. A lot rain thats for sure, I have hearned to always be skeptical of wind but MA and cape are gonna be in strong TS force winds for almost 30 hrs!amugs wrote:Folks the Nor is getting bottlenecked up by the Block and will cause tis to do a Henri retrograde like that storm and the 3 days snowstorm last Jan 31 -Feb2 . The firehouse of moisture from an anomalous warm Atlantic water will aid in these rainfall amounts. EURO just said het out the ark!!!!
Wind gusts knock of 20% but still - power outages possible to likely at this point
JB comparison is 1994 Del Marva Nor, Perfect Storm and.....SANDY!!! BUT not as bad
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
As we approach the 10th anniversary of the infamous October 2011 nor'easter
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 25, 2021, we've got our first nor'easter of fall/winter 2021/22 to track!
There's a shortage of cold air this time, but no shortage of tropical moisture (🟠) — this one will be about soaking rain, not snow... pic.twitter.com/MBsoYqIYuD
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Upton is underselling the wind *threat* for coastal areas from my perspective, though of course there is higher than usual uncertainty due to the delicate interaction between the upper cutoff and the semi-tropical vort moving up the east coast.
I believe a high wind warning will be required for much of LI and possibly southern Queens and Brooklyn and the central NJ shore. I would expect and be prepared for widespread power outages in these areas, similar to previous tucked-in hybrid events with a warm seclusion like Jan 1992, Dec 1994, and Oct 2017. Even inland areas that have heavy rain could also see significant power outages, with the mainly/fully leafed trees and rapidly saturating ground increasing wind damage potential.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
What model is that? That would crush the area being that close in. And the loop on prolongs it.amugs wrote:As we approach the 10th anniversary of the infamous October 2011 nor'easter
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 25, 2021, we've got our first nor'easter of fall/winter 2021/22 to track!
There's a shortage of cold air this time, but no shortage of tropical moisture (🟠) — this one will be about soaking rain, not snow... pic.twitter.com/MBsoYqIYuD
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021
Mike Mosstwill on Twitter n 33nRain Wx Board

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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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