Re: Roctober or Ghostober 2021

by **amugs** Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:22 am

40.7 here this morning - wow was it chilly!!!
Hopefully some frost and maybe freeze this upcoming weekend but definitely for the Ruburbs of NJ and Cp and dem hills of CP, DOC and SNOWY!

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:50 am

46 again for a low this morning..love it!!

by **amugs** Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:46 am

Could translate into a east coast coastal storm next week, west coast needs the precip badly!
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Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 FCO7XdhWQAECEzR?format=jpg&name=medium

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:15 am

A decent amount of rain headed our way next week. Some showers possible Sunday late day and turning more steady later Monday. A break before more rain Thursday. Hopefully it's not a cut-off low situation next week which would mean overcast/cool/showery all weekend!

by **amugs** Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:02 am

Okay where is everyone on this chilly very fall like morning?
We have two possible nor'easters over the next 6 days!!!.Tuesday into Wed!!

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 1eb71a10

GFS showing 3-5" over the NYC Metro and NE NJ N

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by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:50 am

amugs wrote:Okay where is everyone on this chilly very fall like morning?
We have two possible nor'easters over the next 6 days!!!.Tuesday into Wed!!

GFS showing 3-5" over the NYC Metro and NE NJ N

The reason for the lack of posts Mugs is that everyone has been through enough of these rainstorms and tornadoes during the summer months. It’s inflicted a lot of pain and suffering both mentally and financially not to mention the loss of life. This so called climate change has been a humbling experience to say the least. I can only imagine what the winter might have in store for us.

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 24, 2021 4:33 pm

amugs wrote:Okay where is everyone on this chilly very fall like morning?
We have two possible nor'easters over the next 6 days!!!.Tuesday into Wed!!

GFS showing 3-5" over the NYC Metro and NE NJ N

Wow, I knew it was go rain but didn't know there was also potential for HWW criteria winds. And the system looks to just rotate just inside the BM for quite some time. Could be a bad scene, flash flood watches up, thats last thing we need. At least rivers have receeded from the last storms.

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 24, 2021 4:34 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay where is everyone on this chilly very fall like morning?
We have two possible nor'easters over the next 6 days!!!.Tuesday into Wed!!

GFS showing 3-5" over the NYC Metro and NE NJ N
The reason for the lack of posts Mugs is that everyone has been through enough of these rainstorms and tornadoes during the summer months. It’s inflicted a lot of pain and suffering both mentally and financially not to mention the loss of life. This so called climate change has been a humbling experience to say the least. I can only imagine what the winter might have in store for us.

Yeah probably and I agree but this is not uncomming halloween week etc, Thats around when Sandy happened, and many other storms not on the level of Sandy but this time of year it is common. I can only hope we see a swatch of 3-5 qpf over nyc area in winter lol

by **amugs** Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:57 pm

NWS heard me about this - get ready folks could be an impactful storm

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Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 Image.png.a9ddb944971f436dbb33c02dc4d1588f

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:01 pm

amugs wrote:NWS heard me about this - get ready folks could be an impactful storm

I saw a sattelite view and this noreaster looks to develop a a eye as it does a loop just off shore, what is keeping it from going inland? Bastardi is comparing it to analogs of Sandy, Perfect storm and another in 1994 I think i actually remember.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Oct 24, 2021 7:35 pm

We're looking at a solid nor'easter on Tuesday. My guess is the NAM is lost, and still in its longer range at this point, whereas the GFS has the better handle of what's going on. It's not going to be an explosive storm by any means but a solid 2"+ of rain. There's actually some Miller B aspects to the set-up and for that reason, it minimizes SOME of the impact for areas away from the coast (not as much rain nor wind).

GFS:

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 Gfs_apcpn_neus_11

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 Gfs_apcpn_neus_11

NAM:

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by **amugs** Sun Oct 24, 2021 8:46 pm

The kind of trends I like to see pic.twitter.com/xMtDjCMez8
— Will C (@weatherwilly) October 24, 2021

by **jmanley32** Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:44 pm

Frank I know you said NAM is too far out of range but the 00z is a gigantic shift west, this would not be good if it happened. I would say 984mb isnt explosive but it is def strong.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 Namcon13

rain is still coming in on run but seeing 6+ along jersey shore so far.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:31 am

That run finished up with 7+ inches for the Shore! Too much, SENJ no likey. Hoping for about half that. We’ll see soon enough I guess…

by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:43 am

Folks the Nor is getting bottlenecked up by the Block and will cause tis to do a Henri retrograde like that storm and the 3 days snowstorm last Jan 31 -Feb2 . The firehouse of moisture from an anomalous warm Atlantic water will aid in these rainfall amounts. EURO just said het out the ark!!!!

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Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 FCimkiqWEAYNhd_?format=jpg&name=medium

Wind gusts knock of 20% but still - power outages possible to likely at this point
JB comparison is 1994 Del Marva Nor, Perfect Storm and.....SANDY!!! BUT not as bad

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by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:49 am

Strong Nor.

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by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:50 am

amugs wrote:Folks the Nor is getting bottlenecked up by the Block and will cause tis to do a Henri retrograde like that storm and the 3 days snowstorm last Jan 31 -Feb2 . The firehouse of moisture from an anomalous warm Atlantic water will aid in these rainfall amounts. EURO just said het out the ark!!!!

Wind gusts knock of 20% but still - power outages possible to likely at this point
JB comparison is 1994 Del Marva Nor, Perfect Storm and.....SANDY!!! BUT not as bad

hislatest post he made a makeshift track and is calling it "hurricane-like" and has it as a 85mph storm just off LI then 80mph storm just east of NJ as it does a loop. A lot rain thats for sure, I have hearned to always be skeptical of wind but MA and cape are gonna be in strong TS force winds for almost 30 hrs!

by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:57 am

by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:00 am

@JMAN - and the Cape and NE coastline will endure 15-22' waves for hours

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by **Frank_Wx** Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:16 am

It's a dual-low situation where the 'parent' SLP is well off the coast but the 'child' SLP is retrograding into our area bringing heavy rain and wind. Eventually, the two low's combine into a single SLP and the pressure drops significantly possibly below 980mb. Yes, the tides and winds along the immediate coast once these storms combine will be very impactful. From a rain standpoint, 4am-4pm tomorrow is the worst of it.

by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:05 am

As we approach the 10th anniversary of the infamous October 2011 nor'easter , we've got our first nor'easter of fall/winter 2021/22 to track!

There's a shortage of cold air this time, but no shortage of tropical moisture (🟠) — this one will be about soaking rain, not snow... pic.twitter.com/MBsoYqIYuD
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 25, 2021

by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:25 am

From a Pro Met

Upton is underselling the wind *threat* for coastal areas from my perspective, though of course there is higher than usual uncertainty due to the delicate interaction between the upper cutoff and the semi-tropical vort moving up the east coast.

I believe a high wind warning will be required for much of LI and possibly southern Queens and Brooklyn and the central NJ shore. I would expect and be prepared for widespread power outages in these areas, similar to previous tucked-in hybrid events with a warm seclusion like Jan 1992, Dec 1994, and Oct 2017. Even inland areas that have heavy rain could also see significant power outages, with the mainly/fully leafed trees and rapidly saturating ground increasing wind damage potential.

by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:45 am

GFS ooofa.

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 Fcizac10

by **billg315** Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:21 am

This setup definitely has flooding, wind damage, and power outages written all over it. Wonder if this will be a sign of things to come this winter.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:34 am

amugs wrote:GFS ooofa.

So you think it's too far East? Do you think my area may we hww? At least it won't ruin Halloween. Looks like go be impressive system and nhc has it at 40% to Dr flop after it heads east.

by **jmanley32** Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:36 am

amugs wrote:
As we approach the 10th anniversary of the infamous October 2011 nor'easter , we've got our first nor'easter of fall/winter 2021/22 to track!

There's a shortage of cold air this time, but no shortage of tropical moisture (🟠) — this one will be about soaking rain, not snow... pic.twitter.com/MBsoYqIYuD
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 25, 2021

What model is that? That would crush the area being that close in. And the loop on prolongs it.

by **amugs** Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:56 am

This is a sick loop!!!
Mike Mosstwill on Twitter n 33nRain Wx Board Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 Hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_fh20-48.gif.6313607a7afc1ae9bd5b23370a289d0f

Roctober or Ghostober 2021 - Page 3 Hrrr_mslp_wind_neus_fh20-48.gif.6313607a7afc1ae9bd5b23370a289d0f

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