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Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:55 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The 500mb trough appears to be neutral over MS.  Not a bad spot.

I’d argue it’s already negative.

Maybe right as I eyeball it closely. That should allow for a more northerly trajectory. But models want to kick this sucker out at Ocean City MD. GFS was beautiful close off only to get shunted out.

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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:58 pm

Just started snowing very lightly here

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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:02 pm

Just started to snow coating everything

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:03 pm

850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

This has to be great news!

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:04 pm

…and “liked” by one of my favorite METS @ the SPC (circled in red).

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 5f8bbe10
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Post by lglickman1 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

Wasn't that the ideal location?

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:06 pm

Okay I think it is here, quick coating already snowing lightly. Sounds like good news on the obs of maps. Nice to hear the models swung back west, wish I could see them but the model thread was closed.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:07 pm

lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

Wasn't that the ideal location?
yes and its much futher west by looks of it, maybe I am wrong.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:09 pm

lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

Wasn't that the ideal location?

Normally that's very good for I95.

Issue seems to be the energy gets shunted before being able to unload on the I95 and points NW. We don't want due east after a close off. We want at least NE inside BM approach.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Okay I think it is here, quick coating already snowing lightly. Sounds like good news on the obs of maps.  Nice to hear the models swung back west, wish I could see them but the model thread was closed.

HRRR is 50 miles west and becoming insistent on CCB banding developing over the entire forum lol this is good.

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Post by lglickman1 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:10 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

Wasn't that the ideal location?

Normally that's very good for I95.  

Why is that happening here? And any chance it doesn't happen that way?

Issue seems to be the energy gets shunted before being able to unload on the I95 and points NW.  We don't want due east after a close off.  We want at least NE inside BM approach.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

Wasn't that the ideal location?
yes and its much futher west by looks of it, maybe I am wrong.

Surface low is not consolidated with mid-levels ATTM. It's off the southern NC coast. The consolidation piece models are struggling with.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:850mb nicely closed low around Hatteras

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 850mb10

Wasn't that the ideal location?
yes and its much futher west by looks of it, maybe I am wrong.

Surface low is not consolidated with mid-levels ATTM.  It's off the southern NC coast.  The consolidation piece models are struggling with.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Okay I think it is here, quick coating already snowing lightly. Sounds like good news on the obs of maps.  Nice to hear the models swung back west, wish I could see them but the model thread was closed.

HRRR is 50 miles west and becoming insistent on CCB banding developing over the entire forum lol this is good.
Im go pull a Frank I love you lol
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:13 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Okay I think it is here, quick coating already snowing lightly. Sounds like good news on the obs of maps.  Nice to hear the models swung back west, wish I could see them but the model thread was closed.

HRRR is 50 miles west and becoming insistent on CCB banding developing over the entire forum lol this is good.

So are you telling me I came to Barnegat for nada?! LOL. We'll see...

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:14 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The 500mb trough appears to be neutral over MS.  Not a bad spot.

I’d argue it’s already negative.

Maybe right as I eyeball it closely.  That should allow for a more northerly trajectory.  But models want to kick this sucker out at Ocean City MD.  GFS was beautiful close off only to get shunted out.

Pretty sure it’s feedback. But at this point, it’s tough to see that western ridge interplay now so it could at least partially be that too.


Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:14 pm

Which run 00z? Snow doesnt look that intense but at hr 14 NYC already has 4-6 at 10:1 and i presume its not nearly close to over.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Okay I think it is here, quick coating already snowing lightly. Sounds like good news on the obs of maps.  Nice to hear the models swung back west, wish I could see them but the model thread was closed.

HRRR is 50 miles west and becoming insistent on CCB banding developing over the entire forum lol this is good.

So are you telling me I came to Barnegat for nada?!  LOL.  We'll see...

No…..I’m telling you that you came to Barnegat for a BETTER reason Wink

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:18 pm

rb 00z and 23z look the same no?
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:21 pm

Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 Sc_35410

Looks neutral

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:22 pm

Really high quality dendrites forming. Not the usual stuff near the coast. These will pile up very quickly.

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:24 pm

Area of heaviest snow later tonight  @rb924119 ?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:27 pm

not sure why rb touted the HRRR NYC area sees 6 inches (maybe 8 or 9 if 15:1) and just north 3-4, def not whole board, same spots jackpot as older runs.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:29 pm

billg315 wrote:Area of heaviest snow later tonight  @rb924119 ?
Godzilla 2022 JAN 28th-29th Observations - Page 5 3aa36c10
that literally cuts westchester in half, either I am going to be under that or not by a few miles. NYC more likely, wont that be something NYC seeing more than westchester and north. But it is what it is, snowing lightly things are starting to coat, even roads which are very wet. 30 degrees out, still pretty warm not go see over 10:1 with 30 degrees.
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