Monitoring February 4th

Winter Weather Advisories are up north & west of the city (mainly north of I-80). SR guidance trended warmer overnight so confidence for prolonged icing near the coast has decreased. The latest from Upton:

RAIN THIS EVENING TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX CONSISTING MOSTLY
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND MORE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
ENDING EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LESS CONFIDENCE ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS,
WHICH ARE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
THERE IS NO ADVISORY. SREF PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN HAVE
DECREASED HERE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HRRR ALSO
KEEPS MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN BUT THE DURATION OF IT AND
SMALL AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE MAKING FOR LESS
CONFIDENCE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BUT NW GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE.

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
356 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

NJZ004-103>106-NYZ069>071-032130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.220204T1100Z-220204T2300Z/
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
356 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

Look at the difference in handling of the snow for Euro/GFS.  GFS really didn't get a handle on the snow output until yesterday.  Euro was much more in tuned with the cold air advance as was the Canadian for that matter.

Euro 2 Days Ago



GFS 2 Days Ago



This morning GFS

I am surprised there are no flood warnings from heavy rains and snow melt today and tonight before the freeze.NWS says 1 to 2 inches of rain tonight up here after 1/2 inch today.

Interesting

3KM NAM has temps going into low 40s right into the LHV in places where it's not elevated. Coastal/central NJ will hit 50. There will be a lot of snow melt and ponding which lead to a lot of ice after the hard freeze goes through. I'm a seller on sig ice accretion anywhere < 1000' elevation.

docstox12 wrote:I am surprised there are no flood warnings from heavy rains and snow melt today and tonight before the freeze.NWS says 1 to 2 inches of rain tonight up here after 1/2 inch today.

True that. And frozen ground means water can't be absorbed in normally permeable places. Lots of ponding. Glad that all the snow and ice in my gutters melted, I was worried about damning. I imagine there will be lots of wet basements too.

The snow began falling here a little while ago and hopefully it stays as snow throughout the day.

Aresian let us know how it goes up there. Close call for your area, but you should get at least 6". I got a few friends in Central Ohio too that are not quite sure what to expect.

This is interesting for sure

The 12z HREF continues to be quicker with the low level cold air vs most guidance. 7am tomorrow shown. Always a tough call to bet against the HREF.

I can’t argue with this look. pic.twitter.com/TGvf2kTupt

— eweather (@Eweather13) February 3, 2022

The surface wet bulb (dotted purple line) has a long way to go and my guess is the Applachians slow progress a bit of the surface freeze which will save the area from sig ice accretion.  You will probably know by about midnight tonight if your particular area is going to get sig icing by the progress of that line.  I still say < 1/4" for most unless you're elevated.

heehaw453 wrote:Aresian let us know how it goes up there.  Close call for your area, but you should get at least 6".  I got a few friends in Central Ohio too that are not quite sure what to expect.  

Wow, again ridiculous cut offs.Our man Aresian out on the western frontier will be the only one on our site to cash in on snow! Good for him, he always has to watch as the coast cashes in.

From Matt Douglass on Twitter
GFS and 3K NAM show this best - RGEM, NAM, HRRR too warm hmmmm.... could be interesting if HREFs nail this. An hour or two tomorrow morning is really tight for commuters.

This is why the storm is warm.  Look at how far 1020 line has pushed northward.  Had that been below Mason Dixon Line another animal.

heehaw453 wrote:This is why the storm is warm.  Look at how far 1020 line has pushed northward.  Had that been below Mason Dixon Line another animal.

What is the significance of the 1020 line?

lglickman1 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:This is why the storm is warm.  Look at how far 1020 line has pushed northward.  Had that been below Mason Dixon Line another animal.

What is the significance of the 1020 line?

Push of warm air.

I'm not going to cash in as much as I'd like. The NAM has been bullish on sleet for me and they're right. Snow has turned to sleet.

Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded and now includes New York City’s 5 boroughs along with Nassau and NW Suffolk Counties.

The surface freeze is lagging behind the 925's freeze by about an hour or so.  I'm hoping we get spared the sig ice and I think most will.  Flash freeze will occur and ponding water will be sheets of ice.

925's


Surface wet bulb

TheAresian wrote:I'm not going to cash in as much as I'd like. The NAM has been bullish on sleet for me and they're right. Snow has turned to sleet.

Are you thinking at least 6"?

It's back to snow now so barring another change back to sleet 6" should be easily reachable.

TheAresian wrote:It's back to snow now so barring another change back to sleet 6" should be easily reachable.

I think the warmest approach of the storm to your area has occurred and the energy will continue to get more strung out. I would expect mid-level temps to continue to fall and any change-back in the near term will be brief. Enjoy!

Bring on the ice and whatever else momma has to throw at us. Artic air seems to be on the move now. See how it matches up with models at this point.

amugs wrote:Bring on the ice and whatever else momma has to throw at us. Artic air seems to be on the move now. See how it matches up with models at this point.

Temperatures will rise a bit over the next 4-6 hours as the storm consolidates to our south, and then the baroclinic zone tightens. It's only after that consolidation that the advance of the cold air can continue as the storm pulls east. That's the part that screwed the NW folks as it's just too close to the area that this occurs and of course takes a really long time.

At some point the snow changed back over to sleet. I was going to go outside and take a picture of the snowfall, but my porch and steps are mini skating rinks and based on how the sidewalks look I wouldn't want to go for a walk tonight. The radar says snow, but the radar isn't on the ground here.

I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo