Re: 1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:29 am

SREFs are north though

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:31 am

Mets2695 wrote:SREFs are north though

With the first wave, I'm having a hard time seeing a well defined second wave, it's very narrow kind of like the first and still slides to the east. Models are clearly still having trouble with this considering the NAM is literally bouncing the storm like a trampoline each run, headache... Going to get ahead of myself today and take the aspirin now.

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:32 am

GFS running now....

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:32 am

12z GFS is rolling. Southern stream stronger than 6z so far hour 24

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:32 am

Remember when 2 days ago we were locked in with a jackpot solution for the NYC and then all of the sudden it shifted south, well it can shift north just as fast.

by **pdubz** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:34 am

Let's hope GFS is north

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:34 am

Hour 36, PV is slightly weaker

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:34 am

GFS actually looks a tick north through 36.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:35 am

Mets2695 wrote:Remember when 2 days ago we were locked in with a jackpot solution for the NYC and then all of the sudden it shifted south, well it can shift north just as fast.

See that's the mistake, it was never locked in. We've seen many times before the models "gain consistency" on a solution fairly close to the event (Feb 27th) and then drop it a couple days before. Some thought it would come back north but alas never did. Not saying this is that and there is always a chance. However I wouldn't say it's a much higher chance than it stays to the south.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:36 am

Hour 39, PV pushing south Mad

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:36 am

Well you know what i mean. GFS was pretty much not budging for 3 days. Euro caved to the GFS and then they both suddenly went south.

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:37 am

Looks like a decent run so far for the NYC area and CNJ

by **pdubz** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:38 am

Is the storm center in California yet?

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:38 am

This is north.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:38 am

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 7 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 7 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f45

1st Call Snow Map, March 3rd-4th Storm Discussion 2.0 - Page 7 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

Lets see what the 2nd wave does now...

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:39 am

Precip slightly weaker at 48

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:39 am

Bobby Martrich is confirming this is north.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:39 am

Man the PV is just over-powering though.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:40 am

LP may look slightly north but precip is further south and squashed

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:41 am

Yea PV is killing the second wave.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:41 am

Yea No, this is not north

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:42 am

Yup, this is south. About 3-6 inches for NYC / NNJ, 5-8 inches for CNJ, and probably 7-8+ for coastal NJ / SNJ

by **pdubz** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:42 am

Great so 6z was a dud now the pv is too strong

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:42 am

yep south nyc barely around 6 inches.

by **jmanley32** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:43 am

So thats it, no more chances for north or stronger run or is it still possible?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:44 am

Never bet on only 6z runs, let downs always. Follow the trends which have been disappointing the past couple days.

by **aiannone** Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:44 am

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